Human Spaceflight: No Single Rationale Justifies it, NRC Report

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briankoontz

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May 17, 2010
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Rhykker said:
What do you believe is the strongest rationale for human spaceflight?
The only "positive" rationale is so that the most powerful people of the world can continue to live past the point at which life becomes unfeasible on earth. Spaceflight is a necessary prerequisite to planetary colonization.

Given that the earth need not be destroyed, it's far better to scuttle all space exploration since any technological improvements will only encourage the further destruction of earth, as the understanding will then be "well, after earth is destroyed, we'll just move to another planet".

The only way to save earth is to make sure that if earth dies, we die. The business community calls this an "incentive".

Planetary colonization is the end-game desire of industrialization on earth - the possibility of nuclear annihilation following World War II is the single largest factor in the acceleration of the ability of the powerful to colonize outer space. As the condition of the earth worsens, there will be constantly increasing and eventually great impetus for humans who have the means to leave earth to do so. A secular technological Rapture, if you will, with the rest of us, 99% of current humanity, "left behind". Those humans left behind who have not yet died will have the privilege of looking up, but instead of seeing God like they used to they will see an orbiting space station, or a shuttle going to a distant planet. And the people looking down will see the whole world, and instead of merely *feeling* above it all they will literally be above it all. Their subjects, their humans. They who exist to worship the people above them.
 

Scars Unseen

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RJ 17 said:
shirkbot said:
RJ 17 said:
[...]saying that there's no reason to explore space would be like telling Columbus there's no reason to sail west[...]
Point of Pedantry: What sane person was going to tell Columbus not to go West?
All the people that still believed that the world was flat and that he'd be sailing off to his doom? Indeed he did want to find a shortcut to India, but everyone thought he was nuts.

He had to shop the plans for his voyage around to different nations just to find a backer because most monarchies thought it was a fool's errand.
Point of contention: no one of any education thought that. It is not true. The words you are posting are derived from A History of the Life and Voyages of Christopher Columbus [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_History_of_the_Life_and_Voyages_of_Christopher_Columbus], which contains as much myth as fact, one of the most glaring of which is the author's inclusion of the flat earth myth. The work isn't entirely consistent, as it does point out the actual problem that Columbus had: he had miscalculated the size of the earth(in part by accidentally substituting the Italian mile for the longer Arabic mile).

The reason that he had problem getting sponsorship was because Spanish scholars (correctly) believed the ships of the time incapable of making an open water trip around the world to Japan.
 
Jun 23, 2008
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Grenge Di Origin said:
And do we really need ONE STRONG rationale for manned spaceflight for the public to associate with? Is the public truly so basic? Is it so insufferable that something has multiple strong arguments going for it?
It's a terrible truth that I've come to realize that when too much is at stake our instincts tend to outweigh our ability to think things through rationally. Granted there are some few exceptions.[footnote]One seeming exception seems to be the use of nuclear (post-atomic) weapons. Even though there have been plenty of opportunities for cataclysm with such weapons falling into the hands of fanatics (albeit ones in unilateral military hierarchies), none still have ever been used in hostility. Thanks to the terrifyingly immense stakes the cold war was conducted with meticulous, measured, rational negotiations. Perhaps we need for the proverbial gun to our heads to be clear and present in order for human society to rise to its highest grace.[/footnote]

On the short term, I'd note that we made $14 for every $1 spent on the Apollo moonshots, and much of the technology that we've come to rely on in the post-millennial era (e.g. microcircuitry) was pushed forward because we were determined to go to space and the moon. Our space program has always been a good investment with high returns.

And yeah, on the long term, if we stay here we're going to die, probably of ecology collapse but just as easily by way of a supergerm or a meteor strike (ultimately of the Sun broiling us until we're a toasty golden-brown, but that's a looooong time in the future). And the only way that humankind, or any terrestrial life, is going to survive beyond such an ELE is if we've established self-sustaining colonies off-world.

238U[footnote]As of this posting I have not received a US National Security Letter or any classified gag order from an agent of the United States.
This post does not contain an encrypted secret message.
Thursday, June 05, 2014 6:40:23 PM
cave injury saddle migraine typewriter prison joke stamina[/footnote]
 

Eclectic Dreck

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Grenge Di Origin said:
And do we really need ONE STRONG rationale for manned spaceflight for the public to associate with? Is the public truly so basic? Is it so insufferable that something has multiple strong arguments going for it?
The public, on the whole, absolutely is that basic.

Consider the relatively easy step of just sending people to Mars. In order to do so, you would need a project of nearly unimaginable scope. The dangers to any human crew are mind boggling and many of those dangers are simply not possible to effectively mitigate given current technology. The cost associated with this endeavor would be absolutely staggering easily in the tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars.

The risks to the crew are enormous, the cost is literally astronomical and the technology to do it doesn't even exist yet. Each of these things can be overcome, yes, but the question remains why bother? Sure, there are lots of reasons you could point to but most of those are nebulous. Lots of neat technology would get created that we could take for granted decades later - that's a hard sell regardless of what kind of charisma you've got working in your marketing department. And the ultimate survival of the human race might depend upon it but that's an even more nebulous concept that one can accept as rational and logical and yet fail to be impacted by. And the oft cited "Because it's there" might be moderately stirring to many but given the costs associated you'll probably need something better.

To sell such a project where the payoff is impossible to imagine and where the risks of not going are all but unimaginable you need something easy to point to. We made it to the moon because the cold war gave us exactly that. To put it another way, it took an existential struggle, seen by many as a very real war for the literal soul of mankind to unite people to that task.
 

mattaui

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There's really so many things wrong with the 'no compelling reason' argument that it's hard to know where to start. But it tends to boil down to a perception of risk versus reward being all risk and no reward, that we'll just get a bunch of people killed to visit a pile of irradiated space rocks.

It's so easy to say no to something, in fact, it's about the easiest thing ever. That's part of our problem these days in general, the fear of saying yes to a risky idea that flops. Or even saying yes to a risky idea that doesn't succeed wildly when, if only they'd taken the road more traveled, if only they'd reprinted, reproduced and regurgitated what had come before, they would have been guaranteed to succeed!

Except of course when something new and different does succeed. But then everyone says, why, that was just so obvious, we were fools for not thinking about it before. And so everyone copies that.

I'd buy the risk versus reward argument a little more, too, if we weren't already so profoundly awash in resources in the first world (really, we are) that we don't already waste time, money and lives (figuratively and literally) on a whole slew of projects and agendas.
 

grigjd3

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I never understood why people don't get that sometimes we do something because its awesome in the most literal sense of the word. When was it we went from being a country that did things because they are hard to a country that says, well, it sure would be nice to cut the budget by 0.01%?
 

DerangedHobo

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Because when the super computer takes over, nukes everything and enslaves the last members of humanity the lunar base will be our last hope. That and space capitalism, can't wait for the StarBucks Nebula and off world mining.
 

Strazdas

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May 28, 2011
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RJ Dalton said:
I guess "because it's awesome" doesn't count. How about "overpopulation"?
There are 3 (group) ways to solve overpopulation.

1. Space colonization.
2. Limiting population growth through forcible sterilization and laws banning multichildren families
3. Floods, hurricanes, epidemics, war and holocaust.

Take your pick, because one of the three will happen if humans want to survive. and they do. Id pick the first one, but looks like were going towards the third one now.

SourMilk said:
RJ Dalton said:
I guess "because it's awesome" doesn't count. How about "overpopulation"?
And apparently from your perspective, we're at a point where shipping people into space like it was WW1 seems like such a good idea. The technology isn't even there where it wouldn't cost a substantial amount of human lives.
It is a good idea unless you prefer the alternatives.

Rawbeard said:
Why do you climb a mountain?
I dont. your point?

thaluikhain said:
I don't see spaceflight as being a solution to overpopulation, you have to constantly send the increase into space to keep things balanced.
you mean like how Americas were not solving population problem by constantly shipping people from europe there.



TheMadJack said:
We could do it just so we can deport the idiots. All of them.
but then we would have an underpopulation problem.

Eve Charm said:
I'd like to know how many billions or trillions is sunk into the US's military budget a year before they say there's no money to go in space.
around 700 billion a year ever since the war started. you can do the math.

shadowstriker86 said:
very time someone has gone exploring, there was an underlying profit margiain under it.
first people that can sucesfully mine an asteroid will be the first trillionaires on the planet. if thats not profit margin motivation enough for you i dont know what is.
 

Atrocious Joystick

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May 5, 2011
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Safety seems like a big reason for me honestly. I´d like to know that the entirity of our civilization would not be ended because a big piece of space rock decided to make earth its vacation destination. If we are to be reasonably sure we can deal with such a menace we would have to at least have some ability to with relative ease zip around at least our own planet.
 

Imperioratorex Caprae

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May 15, 2010
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Discovery is not a good enough rationale? If we'd all said "Its not proven profitable" at any other point in history when regarding the unknown, would we even be here today? Its not as if we live in a world of total ignorance. Oh nevermind, Hollywood called and said I was totally wrong, they're shooting Hangover IV now.
 

Vrach

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Rhykker said:
What do you believe is the strongest rationale for human spaceflight?
Having a plan B for when we blow up or poison half of this planet.

Or, as the article puts it "the eventual survival of human race". Not a big deal really >.>
 

Blackpapa

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May 26, 2010
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It was stupid - nay, reckless, for this irresponsible proto-fish to venture out and pretend it can walk on land. Why'd it do it, anyway? No fish to eat on land.



99,9% of all species that ever existed are extinct. Among those, the species that didn't seek to spread and expand.
 

Thyunda

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There are a million and one reasons for human spaceflight and exploration. Some of them are long-term, practical ones. Others would do wonders for psychological and medical research in the short term. Space exploration involves a whole lot of scenarios that you simply cannot simulate on Earth, and that would open up so many opportunities for studying the reactions of the human body against forces we've yet to really understand. Alongside those are the obvious philosophical answers, and even monitoring the growth of a new, human colony would tell us volumes about the culture and expansion of our species.

Really, the only disadvantage to space exploration is the cost, and since nobody complains about the huge amount of American dollars going into military development, I don't see how they can complain about this.
 

Tradjus

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Apr 25, 2011
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This is why corporations will own a majority of the solar system by the time we're all about too die.
It's the same thing that happened on every great expansion on Earth. A government or governments would get the idea in their heads too explore and colonize some vast distant land, then over time they'd sort of give up and say "Meh, hand the reins on this over too private enterprise."
 

Something Amyss

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Dec 3, 2008
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We don't need a single, unified reason.

Maybe this has been addressed on page 2, but....

shirkbot said:
Point of Pedantry: What sane person was going to tell Columbus not to go West?
People who were good at math. If there hadn't been land in his way, he would have been screeeeeewed. Columbus would have failed one way or the other, and this is why he was turned down by multiple nations before he got funding.

RJ 17 said:
All the people that still believed that the world was flat and that he'd be sailing off to his doom? Indeed he did want to find a shortcut to India, but everyone thought he was nuts.
For a different reason. That the Earth was round was well established and would be known to his patrons. In fact, we knew the rough size of the Earth. Columbus, however, didn't seem to. He thought the trip would be significantly shorter and therefore his calculations said he could make it to India/East Asia. Hell, he continued to assert he had hit Asia into later life, possibly to his death. Meanwhile, his crew was about ready to mutiny when they hit the Americas.
 

DrOswald

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RJ 17 said:
shirkbot said:
RJ 17 said:
[...]saying that there's no reason to explore space would be like telling Columbus there's no reason to sail west[...]
Point of Pedantry: What sane person was going to tell Columbus not to go West?
All the people that still believed that the world was flat and that he'd be sailing off to his doom? Indeed he did want to find a shortcut to India, but everyone thought he was nuts.
Common misconception: By that point everyone knew the Earth was a globe. In fact, we had know the earth was round since around 300 BC. We even knew the size of the globe. Which is why everyone thought Columbus was nuts. He was bad at math, had done the calculations wrong, and refused to be corrected. Getting to India by going the other way around was ludicrous because it would involve sailing a known distance that was impossible at the time due to technological constraints. Columbus, for no good reason, thought everyone was overshooting the size of the Earth and therefore thought it would be easy to sail around (he was dead wrong.)

Because of his incompetence he attempted something incredibly stupid and failed miserably, which he refused to acknowledge even with his dying breath. He didn't even get halfway to India. By sheer luck he ran into the Americas before he and his crew died of thirst or starvation.

The only reason Columbus ever got funding was because the Spanish took a gamble that the mad man's errand would pay off.

Columbus wasn't a great explorer. He was a lucky idiot. I hardly think we should use him as a role model for exploration.
 

shirkbot

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Zachary Amaranth said:
We don't need a single, unified reason.

Maybe this has been addressed on page 2, but....

shirkbot said:
Point of Pedantry: What sane person was going to tell Columbus not to go West?
People who were good at math. If there hadn't been land in his way, he would have been screeeeeewed. Columbus would have failed one way or the other, and this is why he was turned down by multiple nations before he got funding.
You know full well that those people weren't/aren't sane! Mathematicians, bah!

But yeah, it's been addressed by myself and others that Columbus was a bit of an idiot and that it was commonly accepted that the world was round.
 

DrOswald

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BigTuk said:
kael013 said:
BigTuk said:
You do realize the prospect for long term colonization on other bodies is slim to none right?

I mean do you know the host of ways the human body starts failing once it leaves the earth's shell? Our bodies were designed from the ground up to work in this environment. Think I'm talking bull. consider this. and I've always said this. Before you colonize a planet colonize the bottom of the sea. You'd have to deal with many of the same problems, minus the issues caused by gravitational differences causing things like 'weakened immune systems' , 'Space diabetes', Spinal dislocation' 'bone thinning', the list goes on.
And that list will never get shorter unless we actively try to colonize other planets. There's a goal and challenges blocking us from achieving said goal; we'll overcome those challenges before achieved the goal - most likely with technological advancements or innovations created by [i/]studying[/i] the challenges. That's how it works. And at that point we don't even need to colonize planets: we could just build space stations big enough to house nations.
You have no concept of what that means do you? Let me put it this way. We can't even keep cruise ships from becoming cesspools of infection and vomit.
Yes, because Cruise Ships are the absolute height of human achievement, technology, and sustainable permanent habitat efforts. They are certainly not cut rate hotels built into a boat with absolute minimal standards of cleanliness and emergency preparedness.

In other words:
Step 1: Study and overcome physical and environmental challenges.
Study requires a century or more of research and the ability to actually have bodies to study. In case you haven't noticed.. when things go bad in space travel.. bodies are pretty much at best charred remains.
Ok, I am just confused at the first statement. Where are you getting this figure of a century of study? Are you assuming all scientific endeavors require 100+ years?

And the second part, when things explode you get charred remains. When other things go wrong, when the environment is bad, you get bodies that will be excellently preserved for years while you take your time retrieving them.

Step 2: Develop habitats that mimic Earth's environment, are self-sustaining, and provide for growth.
How much growth? also you're forgetting the biiiig one. Gravity. It's the difference in gravity that screws with us and unless science finds some magical way of altering the gravity of an object without also altering it's mass. Not gonna happen. Trust me that's something they're working on anyway, since that would have a pretty big effect on life without space travel.
Even if we can't create artificial gravity we don't actually need to. all we need to do is create a gravity like force. This can be achieved by rotation. The only significant barrier at this moment is that the space station would need to be very large. This is a problem right now because of materials cost but should not be in the future because of asteroid mining.

As for the other things, we can already sufficiently mimic Earth and solar power and asteroid mining can take care of sustainability. Growth is easy: make another space habitat. There is a lot of room in the void of space.

Step 3: Grow by colonizing celestial bodies or expanding said habitats(like a city building a suburb).
It takes light a 3 year trip to make it to the nearest star. Said star has no inhabitable planets either , you have to go at least 10 LY to find something that looks like it may be potentially habitable. Here's an idea. Sign up with the navy and spend 6 months on a nuclear sub. Just spend 3 months living and working on one. Add, higher stress levels, more cramped living space along with space diabetes and hopped up super bacteria and you've just experienced space travel and colonization.
Colonizing the actual celestial bodies is actually completely unnecessary and probably a bad idea. Once we can make sustainable earth like space habitats why would we ever need to go down to a planet? Any system with an asteroid belt is easily habitable and asteroid belts are thought to be extremely common.

OT: "There's no single rationale" is the stupidest excuse I've ever heard. So we should stop doing something because everyone has their own reason to do it? If we used that philosophy for everything we'd never get anything done.
Yup...and the people who see differently are the ones calling the shot. Perhaps they may be seeing something you can't. Like that it boils down to. Spend lives, and billions in resources to chase what could be a dead end. or devote those resources to developing things here to the point where we can plod along comfortably for another ten thousand or so years.
What they are seeing is that they are elected based on short term results. "This investment will pay off in 50 years!" is an easy way to ensure you don't get reelected.

After all. if we can't create self sustainability *here* we have no chance of doing it out there. So as I have said. FOrget space travel let's work on stuff down here first then once we've figured out how to colonize the ocean floor then we can talk about colonizing another planet. Same problems but much easier to to do the 'fail-increment-fail' cycle, and faster. It'll take us about a hundred years if we all put our heads to it... or more.
Colonizing the ocean floor would be way harder than creating a viable space station habitat. It is far easier to deal with the harsh environment of space than the harsh environment of the ocean depths. The biggest barrier we have right now to a viable space habitat is the cost of getting anything we build up to space. Material cost will become much less of an issue once we figure out asteroid mining. In fact, sustainability will be much easier in space because it will be a much more controlled situation. For example, we don't have to worry about pollution because we can just vent it into space.

There are significant barriers but not nearly as significant as you seem to think.
 

Vareoth

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Scientific advances and basic curiosity are the only reasons I need. Knowledge outweighs all other factors and I will dread the day when economic reasons dictate ALL our actions.
 

Racecarlock

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So people might die? Why do anything then? Ever? Also, the government funds wars that take hundreds of lives every day. The difference between war and space travel is with space travel you'd actually be accomplishing something.

People explore the arctic and antarctic knowing they might freeze to death. Hell, we have scientists that spelunk into fucking volcanos. Shit, people will jump out a plane with nothing but a bunch of intricately arranged silk being their safety net just for pure stupid thrills.

People died in the apollo program too. Didn't stop us back then.

As for world hunger, we're never going to solve that because there will never be enough food to feed literally everyone. Yeah, trying is nice. But let's leave that to charities, shall we?

To explore strange, new worlds. To seek out new life and new civilizations. To boldly go where no one has gone before.

When did that become "Ah fuck it, too risky, I'd rather stay home and watch bullshit TV."?