Id's Carmack Positive Digital Distribution Will Destroy Retail

[Sightless Wisdom]

Some people don't seem to understand what eventually means. Once ISPS can stop being asshats and give us our speeds un-throttled and as advertised, maybe people will spend two seconds of their lives understanding that just because you don't have a physical copy of something it doesn't mean you down legally own it. The physical aspect of all media is essentially useless. The only reason discs or cartridges exist is to transport digital information/programs/games; if we have a way to get it there without a physical component, why not do it? You save all of the money on manufacturing, packaging and shipping, which could potentially lead to a lower average price for AAA titles. It's beneficial to everyone but the retailers which will just have to adjust, time advances, technology changes; it's always been this way and it always will.

 

[Deacon Cole]

I'll go one further and say that digital distribution will become dominant for all media, not just games. It is just so much easier than buying a library of hard copies. You don't have to store them or worry if the disk itself is scratched or anything. There's even a variety of ways to get these things. You could purchase each individually either as a one-shot download or have a virtual "bookshelf" where you can download the purchased media for as long as you want. You could subscribe to a service where a monthly fee allows you access to an entire library to download, delete, and re-download at a whim.

Yes, there are people who still prefer owning a hard copy, and to those of you who fall into this category, I have some bad news for you: one day you will be dead. Then who will still want to own a hard copy? It's not good business sense to cater to dead people. Dead people don't buy anything.

More to the point, look at your collection. How many of them are items you really want to own and how many of them are not. I suspect a print-on-demand-like service to get a hard copy if one desires will be possible but used infrequently because not many people need to own a hard copy. Certain not every piece of media has enough fans who want to own a hard copy. I mean, really look at your media collection. How much of it do you use every single day? Or even every week? Or month? Year? For the stuff you use infrequently, wouldn't it be nice to not have it just collecting dust and you can easily re-acquire it the next time you decide to use it? I have several book shelves filled with books, comics, movies, music CDs, games and I have to tell you, I would much prefer to not have "cluttered library back room" be my living room decor style.

There are issues, such as the loss of a secondary market, which is a big enough topic to have spawned several threads, mostly around Gamestop. But priced right so that the cost is similar to that of a can of Coke so that deleting feels like no big loss or a service could offer trade-in "credit" on titles on the virtual bookshelf. There are ways around this.

But the main point is, eventually we'll all be dead, so it will be the buying habits of the next generation that will determine if this is how it will be. Personally, based on what I've seen, that is how it will be.

 

[Jumplion]

I don't care if new infrastructure and interconnectivity leaps to 10GB per milisecond, you've got Physical media disks like this beauty here holding up to 1 Terabyte of information within only a few years. I don't think anyone would be partial to downloading, not to mention the possibility of redownloading multiple times due to errors, a whole friggin' Terabyte of info

Letting aside the note that downloading a terabyte of information would take around 1/10th of a second with the connection you're talking about, you seem to suggest that the volume of information in games is growing proportional to the size of a disc.

Which is a bit weird. Why exactly are we going to play games that are terabytes in size in the next few years?

10GB per milisecond would probably be much farther down the line than the Terabyte disc I showed, but that's a nitpick on both our sides. We'd probably have whateverthehell is higher than a Yottabyte by then.

I doubt most games would ever use every single byte of information on a disc, they still don't even on Blu-ray (though MGS4 say otherwise), but the more space a disk has the more content you can put on it. This still doesn't deter by original point saying that Physical Media improves along side Digital Distribution, so it's not likely that they would ever really meet up. Mass Effect 2 is apparently about 14GB to download and that would take me about 3 hours of just leaving the computer on without running in the background, and that's not convenient when I want to use the "internetz" for other things.

But I think I'm getting a bit off the topic here, whatever. I just like to think that before, this would give you only 100 bytes [http://gizmodo.com/5352806/oldest-working-computer-to-be-rebuilt-sans-windows-7-dual-core-or-wireless] (random article I found). I, for one, am always happy to see what my little 16GB USB stick will evolve into. But that's just me being sentimental here, and probably more off topic.

 

[Crimsane]

About 3/4 of the games I purchase these days are digital purchases. Mostly due to Steam deals and lack of good releases for console that aren't also on PC. I mean, when I want a game and it's 50-75% off, a physical copy becomes much less important.

 

[Zer_]

Carmack has spoken. Let it be so.

 

[Baldr]

Best Buy and Walmart will always carry games because they have other sales, it is Gamestop and other game only retail are in danger, but the only nail in the coffin is when the lawyers figure out how to make sure license agreements are active at point of sale so first-sale doctrine does not apply any more or the courts agree current license agreements are active at point of sale, which ever happens first.

 

[JUMBO PALACE]

Digital distribution will replace retail on PCs, not consoles. PC gamers are already accustomed to this and are usually more computer savvy than the average console gamer. Soccer mom 3294560213875 is not going to be able to or want to download some program and put in her credit card number so little Jimmy can play COD 17, the War of 1812.

 

[Bad Jim]

Although internet access is getting faster, games are getting bigger. I'm expecting a massive upgrade to my broadband sometime over the next few months (1Mbps to 15MBps). But I also expect games will come on Bluray disks in a few years.

Ultimately I reckon that networking technology will hit a wall before storage technology does.

tbh there isnt much reason for games to get any larger in storage size than what we are at at the moment. Especially since the investment needed to make better graphics will strain the already fragile price point of video games.

. . . you seem to suggest that the volume of information in games is growing proportional to the size of a disc.

Which is a bit weird. Why exactly are we going to play games that are terabytes in size in the next few years?

I've argued that many times in the past only to be proven completely wrong. If gaming technology had stopped the first time I said that, we'd be playing PS1 style games.

Firstly, development costs. It is true that the cost of fully exploiting current technology is very high, but if developers don't keep increasing their art budgets then games will still look better with better technology and more storage. It is also possible to create 3d models from real life objects rather than pay artists to make them, so they can increase model detail until hackers can tell what bacteria were growing on the source models.

Secondly, why do we need it? It's a difficult question to answer in advance, but I'm confident that developers will find something that makes games better than they are now, if only in terms of visuals. Guessing a bit, I'd say physics. Give everything a fair bit of information about how it should come apart when you bomb it, shoot it or drive a tank over it. You could also, I think, model human faces so they animated more realistically. Faces still need more work IMO.

 

[imperialreign]

Meh . . . I can see it heading that way - but there are too many of us that prefer a hard copy over a digital copy. At least I know that should my i-netz ever be down, or should I move to a locale with craptacular i-net access and speed, I can still install and run my games.

Although, that is getting harder with more developers partnering with Steam, and even the hard copy has to be registered online before you can play - even though the disk will install the steam client and the game. Metro2033 quickly comes to mind . . .

At the same time, though, the ease of access that DD such as steam brings - i.e. being able to simply install the steam client to play your registered titles on any PC without need of the disk, nor installing the game - will continue to push DD ahead of retail, IMHO.

The only thing that might give hard copies a fighting chance would be if the publishers start adding in more goodies to the package - more than just the disk, an insert and sometimes a stripped-down manual. Anyone remember the glory days of PC gaming when the hardcopy came with goodies? For example, game world maps (sometimes even highly elaborate - Ultima typically came with a cloth map), keyboard overlays, software demos, stickers, patches, etc., etc.

IDK - I wouldn't mind purchasing online via steam or otherwise . . . I'd be more apt to do so if they'd at least send you a hard copy once you've made your purchase. Without a hard copy, should the registration key get lost, damaged, or pirated - you have no other option but to simply re-purchase the title. At least with a hard copy, you can do some arguing with the publisher (or at least properly justify downloading a cracked .exe to allow you to play again).

 

[Spectre4802]

The best way for people to ensure they can still sell the games at retail is to have a bit or piece of content that is only available if you buy it retail.

Torchlight did something like this - an exclusive otter (or something like an otter) pet/animal companion. Perhaps, if it were an RTS game, it could be maps or a special, exclusive unit for each side. An FPS? A gun, or maybe multiplayer maps.

 

[Chamale]

Which is a bit weird. Why exactly are we going to play games that are terabytes in size in the next few years?

Because devs like to make the biggest games possible. When PC games went from floppy disks to compact disks, they were still using as much space as possible, even though they had a lot more space.

For this reason, developers will keep releasing games on disks, even if brick-and-mortar stores decline. Blu-ray will get cheaper in the future, and this form of storage will be more cost-effective for people in areas that have poor internet service.

There's a common misconception in the thread that everyone, everywhere, would have better Internet service if they wanted to. Anyone with that viewpoint doesn't know much about the state of the Internet in rural areas of the United States, or all of Australia.

 

[Jodan]

i enjoy having hard copies of my favorites
plus im always afraid that ill delete my only digital copy of the game

 

[Choppaduel]

I'd be fine with that as long as Steam remembers how to be competitive when it gets to that point.

 

[faefrost]

Games won't be the first to fall this way. Look at Music and Movies as the guide. So they go, so will go games.

Music is probably the hardest hit. Notice how much CD aisles have shrunk in stores lately? And when was the last time you saw a music specific store? Movies are next. All the brick and mortar movie purchase and rental places are dying a fast death. They did not see Netflix coming.

Games have the farthest to travel yet. yes there will be some blending. But we do still have some time before you will be able to easily download that full Blurays worth of game data frequently or easily. Plus there is a much larger question of permanence. While services like Steam, Apples APP store, XBox Live and PSN are working well, it will be a bit yet before we evolve to the final model that will work for all situations. (Big game downloads to replace retail? Cloud computing? Games as services such as MMO's? etc.)

regardless the one wonderful thing that DLC has done is lowered the cost of developer entry and allowed alot of more innovative quirky and unusual games to reach consumers, while making a profit for a smaller development team.

 

[Kenjitsuka]

Carmack is fantasising. He just doesn't want to cut anyone in on his profits.
Now this might be good for us, but it doesn't have to be.

Also, just look at the WoW Cataclysm Collectors Edition.
You get all those goodies like a book, only in stores.
Digital might be cheaper and easier, you will lose out on cool stuff like figurines and book(let)s.
And fans will prefer that, now and over 20 years.

 

[Silver Patriot]

But. . . but what about us collectors? Thoes who buy hard copies so they can put it on their shelf. What will we do?

 

[Zer_]

Carmack is fantasising. He just doesn't want to cut anyone in on his profits.
Now this might be good for us, but it doesn't have to be.

Also, just look at the WoW Cataclysm Collectors Edition.
You get all those goodies like a book, only in stores.
Digital might be cheaper and easier, you will lose out on cool stuff like figurines and book(let)s.
And fans will prefer that, now and over 20 years.

There's nothing stopping them from building limited collectors editions anyways. And I'm sure for the initial game launch, that will remain as such.

 

[Something Amyss]

I for one want Digital Distribution to blow retail to pieces.
For one it will actually force internet companies to up their ante and provide better and better speeds, I mean seriously speeds have been somewhat throttled for way too long in some places unless you pay an absurd amount.

Second maybe then companies will finally give the consumers a break in price because they are cutting out the middle man that is retail/ packaging/ making copies.

Maybe it is just me, but it seems more and more of a hassle now a days to go out for a particular game or item and just having the rotten luck of not being able to find a copy. Stores often stock their gaming inventory terribly, don't carry titles older than a few months unless they are like AAA titles, and very often have any deals. Whereas you see the digital distributors like Steam or D2D always having some kind of deal.

Odds are it will do the opposite. Gaming services for internet packages are being treated as a premium in the states, and that's likely to get worse.

Meanwhile, it's more than likely that most people will not establish a steam style markup. It's debatable whether Steam will keep it up when they're not longer competing against retailers.

 

[ItsAPaul]

I've stopped buying hard copies years ago, but I guess I'm biased since I don't put up with the crap console owners have to go through.