Italian Scientists Go On Manslaughter Trial For Failing To Predict Earthquake

[JoJo]

Two years ago 309 people in a town in Italy died when a magnitude 6.3 earthquake struck. Now six scientists and an official are on a manslaughter trial for failing to predict it, despite the fact that it is impossible to accurately predict earthquakes.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/9593123.stm

Personally I think this is terrible, science relies on being able to give impartial advice without the fear of having a sword dropped on your head if something unexpected happens. If they do get convicted, then scientists will be far less likely to give advice in future in-case they are held liable for it. This concerns me as I'm taking a degree in a science right now.

So what do you think? Should these people, or other experts, be held responsible for their misjudgements if grave harm is caused?

 

[AndyFromMonday]

My first instinct would be to denounce the people who made this trial possible but I don't know the whole story and probably never will since the media is a terrible source when it comes to getting your news so I'm just going to stay impartial for now.

 

[tologna]

What's that guys?! Science is about developing partially incorrect theories over time, and is almost never 100% correct?!

BURN THOSE FILTHY LIARS AT THE STEAK!!!

You shouldn't be able to prosocute someone for giving misinformation. It's the people who act on it that are, more likely, to blame.

 

[Telasro]

What's that guys?! Science is about developing partially incorrect theories over time, and is almost never 100% correct?!

BURN THOSE FILTHY LIARS AT THE STEAK!!!

You shouldn't be able to prosocute someone for giving misinformation. It's the people who act on it that are, more likely, to blame.

mmmm..... Steak

OT, I really hope that the judge realizes what a stupid case this is and just laughs them out of the courtroom...

 

[Simalacrum]

While I can understand why the residence of the town may feel let down by the geographers (earthquakes is to do with geography, which is not strictly speaking a branch of science... it relies on science and scientific equipment, but then so does pretty much every other category of anything really ), but this is ridiculous. Thats like arresting someone for failing to predict that someone was going to commit suicide; its simply not logical!

 

[McMullen]

The last time I know of that something like this happened, it was a Babylonian (I think) king having his astronomers executed for failing to predict a solar eclipse.

I guess the -5th to 21st centuries have been slow to reach some parts of Italy.

Besides, if they want to blame someone, the fact that 309 people died in a mere 6.3 earthquake in a historically very geologically active area means that the people who built the collapsing structures of the town shouldn't even have been trusted to pour out a proper pile of gravel, let alone design buildings.

It also means the local government isn't doing much in the way of disaster preparation either.

 

[McMullen]

My first instinct would be to denounce the people who made this trial possible but I don't know the whole story and probably never will since the media is a terrible source when it comes to getting your news so I'm just going to stay impartial for now.

This is called letting the pendulum swing too far the other way. You have become overly suspicious of news media for fear of being overly credulous. It looks really, really, weird in the context of this story, where the probability of bias is relatively low.

(earthquakes is to do with geography, which is not strictly speaking a branch of science... it relies on science and scientific equipment, but then so does pretty much every other category of anything really )

Don't you mean geology?

 

[Cid Silverwing]

I thought the story where a stage breaking in got blamed on piracy was horrible enough. Now we got this?

I steadily lose faith in humanity.

 

[Aprilgold]

The thought process of not right in the head.

SO WE SEND YOU TO COURT!

Seriously, if you even had science class you'll know science on predicting weather *earthquakes fit into that category* correctly 100% is almost IMPOSSIBLE to do, so, if the guys get away with this, then I hope that a earthquake comes back through with a note saying that you SHOULDN'T BE STUPID WHEN IT COMES TO SCIENCE, NEXT TIME, BOZO!

[sub] Yaay, I like me some memes that fit with the topic.[/sub]

 

[Dr. Pepper Unlimited]

Italy's government is doing some hardcore trolling of the scientific community it would seem. I swore the title of this thread couldn't have been true, but it would seem so. It's odd, but every time I think the human race can't possibly become any more moronic...I read the news. >_<

 

[SonOfVoorhees]

Thats just funny. We cant even predict earthquakes....poor guys. I dont even think they could make the charges stick anyway and even then they have lost some scientists that could have helped in finding a way to predict them in the future.

 

[emeraldrafael]

HUnh.

Youd think you could charge them a bit sooner then 2 years later. But ah well.

Its good to see common sense failing in another country other then the US.

 

[AndyFromMonday]

This is called letting the pendulum swing too far the other way. You have become overly suspicious of news media for fear of being overly credulous. It looks really, really, weird in the context of this story, where the probability of bias is relatively low.

Sorry but I'd rather get my news from a first party. The media often puts a spin on literally everything and after so many years of listening to that shit I'm a bit weary of considering the news anything more than entertainment.

 

[Staskala]

At the time the head of Italy's civil protection agency, Guido Bertolaso, took the unusual step of asking his Commission of Grand Risks to fly to L'Aquila to discuss the situation.

They held a meeting that lasted only an hour or so, then the official now on trial, Bernardo de Bernadinis, who was then deputy director of the civil protection department, held a hurried press briefing, in reassuring tones.

I don't think you can argue that the claim of negligence has no basis, it all depends on what they discussed and what data they actually had available. Which is exactly what the trial is supposed to find out.

Seriously, some people here seem to confuse "trialed" with "found guilty without trial".

 

[AlexiVolkov]

I have been saying this sooo much as of late... but it fits here all the same....

 

[Simalacrum]

Don't you mean geology?

...Possibly, its been a while since I've done any kind of study related to earthquakes so I may quite likely be wrong XD

 

[bificommander]

No, a 'manslaughter' trial really is DoA here. The only possible form that could apply is Criminally negligent manslaughter, but that generally has very high standards of how clear the danger that the professionals ignored. Since there exists no accurate way to properly predict an earthquake, there is no clear danger.

And just allowing this trial to occur ensures that no decent scientist will ever accept a job like theirs again if they can find any other employ. Why would they risk imprisonment whenever they can't perform better than the best scientists can? Your best scientists will not take that chance. And the B-list you get is likely going to give you a lot of false alarms when they start erring on the side of caution.

I can't be sure, but I'm willing to bet one of the reasons this trial happens is because the scientists have less juridical pull than the people responsible for upholding the building safety standards, and the latter would like the legal attention away from them. If that means shifting it to the former, so be it.

 

[AlloAllo]

Wait, I know this from the high standing point of being Italian! ...Look, just roll with it.

This news looks to me quite idiotic as it is reported, but thankfully (woo-hoo.) I seem to remember the original story from the news.
The point was that a guy predicted that there would have been an earthquake there thanks to... a bunch of data I don't remember. I don't know, something about the place being in a shitty place- BUT, useless details apart, the point is that this guy did predict the earthquake.

And no one acted on it.

Because, dude, he does not wear a lab coat, therefore he's not worth of a second glance.


So, if it IS connected to that case, the point is less "the scientists are on trial because they didn't predict the earthquake" and more "the scientists are on trial because they ignored the fact that a guy had predicted that there would have been an earthquake".


...You choose whether it is more or less idiotic.

 

[McMullen]

Don't you mean geology?

...Possibly, its been a while since I've done any kind of study related to earthquakes so I may quite likely be wrong XD

At least at the college I went to, calling a geologist a geographer or the other way around was the academic version of calling a Marine an army dude.

 

[McMullen]

Wait, I know this from the high standing point of being Italian! ...Look, just roll with it.

This news looks to me quite idiotic as it is reported, but thankfully (woo-hoo.) I seem to remember the original story from the news.
The point was that a guy predicted that there would have been an earthquake there thanks to... a bunch of data I don't remember. I don't know, something about the place being in a shitty place- BUT, useless details apart, the point is that this guy did predict the earthquake.

And no one acted on it.

Because, dude, he does not wear a lab coat, therefore he's not worth of a second glance.


So, if it IS connected to that case, the point is less "the scientists are on trial because they didn't predict the earthquake" and more "the scientists are on trial because they ignored the fact that a guy had predicted that there would have been an earthquake".


...You choose whether it is more or less idiotic.

Scientists cannot act on the predictions of laypeople unless there is good evidence. People predict lots of things. There are people who predict major earthquakes every year, sometimes in places where earthquakes are nearly certain to not occur, and the ones who get it right are merely the broken clocks that happen to be stuck on the current time.

Unless this guy had good evidence, they were doing exactly what they should have done by ignoring him.

I should also point out that the so-called warning signs and foreshocks are not reliable predictors of seismic activity. It is impossible to distinguish isolated minor quake swarms from foreshock swarms. The actual nature of earthquakes virtually guarantees unpredictability. It's easier to predict the exact timing and placement of lightning strikes than it is to do the same for earthquakes.