Kinect Could Give Microsoft Billion Dollar Revenue Boost, Says Analyst

[droppingpenny]

I don't really care vor analyst's opinions, especially, because they predict in every damn generation, that Nintendo will die, even if they are selling as much Konsoles, as their competitors together. Until I see it with my own eyes I won't believe what any analyst predicts.
P.S. Where is the Wii HD Mr. Pachter?

 

[bue519]

A quarter of the Xbox market is doubtful at best. Even 10% is still relatively high, I mean people don't usually buy a peripheral with only shovelware on it. Besides wouldn't most of these people probably have a Wii already, so an entire new console with a new peripheral would be a bit much.

First of all, it wouldn't be a 'new' console, since everyone I mentioned already owns a 360.

Second, the reason I said 'half of the half' was to account for those who already own Wiis. I think 25% of 360 owners already owning Wiis would be pretty close to what it actually is. I haven't seen numbers, so I obviously can't say for certain, but I don't think 25% is unreasonable (Not too much, not too few).

And Thirdly: You can't say it's 'only shovelware' when you haven't played it, and when there have only been a few games announced for it. You have no idea how much 'shovelware' there is, and neither do I. Besides that, what you might consider shovelware, someone else, who isn't an 'gamer' at heart, might consider genuinely fun. I know plenty of 'core' gamers who would say Wii sports is essentially shovelware. It's extremely simple, there isn't really an 'ending', it's just a mash-up of mini games. But nobody can deny that people did, and do, have a butt-load of fun with it.

People have bought peripherals that only work with one game, or one type of game (Guitar Hero, anyone?), so why not a peripheral that plays a bunch of games? I think Kinect will do well in sales, and I don't think 7 to 8 million units sold is impossible, or even unlikely. Not all on day one, obviously, but so long as MS keeps up the support they've been giving it, I think it will find it's little niche in the market and succeed.

All I was pointing out with the shovelware point was that during this E3, I didn't see any games that got me excited about this new peripheral. (isn't that what your supposed to show at a gaming expo?) And my only reason for claiming that you over estimated was because at $150 you could already almost buy a Wii, and thats an entirely new console. Also, while Wii sports was a hit, (how could it not be as it was included) Wii sports resort was less so. I also lack faith in the success of a peripheral that most people don't even know the name of.

 

[Shovel]

I remember when people laughed at the Wii.

We'll see if this prediction is right.

People still laugh at the Wii.
And it won't happen, not with it competing with PSMove and the already "king of motion sensor" Wii.

 

[Sougo]

Well they may as well come out and say it.

After all, its not like Kinect was made to appeal to people, it was just made so that microsoft makes more money.

 

[BlankZero]

Nobody I know is excited about the Kinect. I've seen a few half-hearted attempts online at defending Kinect by comparing it to Wii's launch with, "Oh, everybody said the Wii would fail, too," but the individuals spouting this nonsense are overlooking the simple fact that there were a ton of people really looking forward to the Wii. Everybody in my family was looking forward to it at launch, which was odd at the time given that I'm the only "gamer" in the house.

I don't see that at all with Kinect; none of my gamer friends care, nobody in my family cares, and most people on the internet don't seem to care, either. I certainly don't care. The estimates in the article seem a bit optimistic.

 

[Sebenko]

It will sell incredibly well. Why?

Because I want it to fail and die. And fate will make it succeed just to prove me wrong.

 

[Gasaraki]

Honestly if I wanted to play with motion controls it'd be much more sensible to buy a wii, let's compare shall we?. Kinect costs 150$, the wii costs 200$; 50$ dollars more. For that extra 50$ we get; a console with a fairly good library of games, including no more heroes, madworld, metroid, mario, zelda, resident evil, dead space and more. For 50$ less we get a console addon with an expansive library of games such as kinectimals, wii kinect sports and...erm...that's pretty much it.
Plus, I doubt that most casual gamers who don't have a 360 are going to want to buy 2 consoles (If you count kinect as an extra console) for their arm flailing fix.
2 billion dollars my ass.

 

[TOGSolid]

It will sell incredibly well. Why?

Because I want it to fail and die. And fate will make it succeed just to prove me wrong.

However an analyst said it would do well, and analysts are always wrong.


I wonder which will win out. Gamers wanting it to die causing it to do well, or analysts saying it will do well causing it to die.

 

[Baby Tea]

All I was pointing out with the shovelware point was that during this E3, I didn't see any games that got me excited about this new peripheral. (isn't that what your supposed to show at a gaming expo?) And my only reason for claiming that you over estimated was because at $150 you could already almost buy a Wii, and thats an entirely new console. Also, while Wii sports was a hit, (how could it not be as it was included) Wii sports resort was less so. I also lack faith in the success of a peripheral that most people don't even know the name of.

You weren't excited about it, because it's not for you. It's for the casual crowd, not the core gamer crowd.
And don't know how much Kinect will cost, and I'd rather spend $150 and get this, then $200 plus another controller and nunhuck (Another $60?) for a new console that crowds my entertainment unit. Kinect is cheaper.

Also, Wii Sports Resort sold 22 million copies. How the heck is that not successful?

 

[The Austin]

Like hell it will.
I predict Kinect flopping harder that a fat guy on a diving board.

 

[ItsAPaul]

Is the gimmick crowd really that big?

 

[Shale_Dirk]

Kinect is flawed perceived 3D technology that hardcore gamers are still in debate about.

Casual gamers like their Wii.

I really don't see Kinect going far, unless they release an interactive peripheral with it.

 

[Mukil]

eye toy FTW

 

[squid5580]

Is the gimmick crowd really that big?

Tickle me Elmo
Furby
Wii

YES IT IS THAT BIG. Kids will be begging Santa to bring them one. There is more to the industry than just the hardcore gamers.

 

[Kukakkau]

They're being a bit too optimistic here 2 billion from a device priced at $150 - over 13 million (3 repeating) sales

It costs almost as much as the console you need to already own to play it, it's just ridiculous

Anyone who wants motion sensing already has a wii there is no need to expand on the idea any further - leave it to nintendo.