Don't need to be careful. The predictions have all been spot on at this point. You can't even give a true estimate of the Finite-Time Singularity until you have at least 3 clear run ups, and even then it's tricky. Honestly, I thought it was going to play out more like Tulip Bulbs have have 20+ run ups over a decade. However, the 3rd is way too close, and Bitcoin Mania has to be on steroids. By March it will be obvious to everyone outside of the mania, but everyone in the Mania won't recognize it until after the burn.Strazdas said:id be careful with such predictions. We said the same about bitcoins 2 years ago. we said the same about gold 2 years before it crashed. yet people seems to be more gullible than ever now.medv4380 said:More excuses for people to spread Bitcoin propaganda. Other than the Bitcoin Mining code being snuck into competitive play this stuff isn't game related. So why is a Gaming Website hocking this kind of story? To sucker more people in. Bitbulbs 2.0 mania is getting out of hand.
All this is Tulip Mania and this article is no different then the spam people send out to get more people into whatever pyramid scam that has suckered them.
What's going to happen is this latest Surge is going to Crash some time in December.
The next surge will happen 3 months later followed by a crash.
The next 1 month later followed by a crash.
Then a week later so the Crash won't look as much as a crash but leveling out.
Then a day later.
Then a min later
Then an infinite number of surges on that single day causing a Finite-Time Singularity.
Then Tulip Bulb 2.0 crash and burn.
Enjoy the ensuing depression.
Also i kinda regret hopnig for a crash and not buying those bitcoins back in 2011, i could have turned my savings into 5x higher amount now. oh well.
It's best you avoided buying in. Once mania takes hold it tends to keep hold until it's too late. You can never figure out the right moment to abandon ship, and people just jump back in when they see they guessed wrong because it's still going up. I just hope it takes out the black market libertarians. A class specific economic depression, and not a true depression.
Nope, I've never put a single penny into Bitcoins. I've looked at the protocol, and played around with the software, but I have no interest in burning out graphics cards or wasting money. My interest rests with the data. It's rare to see a Tulip Bulb Mania in action, and for it to take place in a perfect petri dish. Having every transaction logged, and accounted for it just perfect. Really, when these things have crashed in the past lots of records vanish with them too. Mostly due to people being ruined, closing shop, or just committing suicide.juchmis said:I'm guessing you got burned at some point by not being smart with your money. Day trading accounts for maybe 30% of the movement of cryptocoins. Truth is, more crypto is used as a currency than fiat currencies now. Most fiat exists in the form of debt (more than half of it actually). Similarly, less than 5% of crypto is estimated to be used for illegal purposes these days. That's actually lower than the % of US dollars used for illegal things.
Crypto are not stocks, they are currency, more so than most purported currencies.
A coworker of mine is very deep in it. He keeps mining and trading in bitcoins. Before he got in it deep I warned him he should keep the bitcoin stuff far away from his actual bank account. It looks like money laundering, and is in many cases. He ignored the advice thinking that he could just let anyone do cash deposits into his account and he'd send them a bitcoin. A week before silk road was shut down by the FBI his bank gave him notice, and closed his accounts. Not much worse than having to find a new bank in just 10 days so that you can pay your real bills. Most real transactions are still done with real Virtual Currency with a Credit/Debit Card, or just strait Virtual, oh "Electronic", Check. Most real currencies have made a nice smooth transition to Virtual. Not 100% Virtual, but very close at this point.
You're stats are mostly bogus. Only about 1% of all the worlds fiat money is used for Illegal activity. The 2003 UN report on the subject put the total dollar amount at 321.6 Billion USD in 2003 with a World GDP of 36 Trillion USD in 2003. So to be more exact it's about 0.893% of the Fiat currently is used for illicit activity. Even if your 5% is low balling it's very high. Then again a lot of Bitcoin transactions are nothing more than bots suffeling money mindlessly to attempt to hid who actually has the money.
As for how many real transactions are done. Bitcoin only has about 70k transactions per day on average over the last year. It barely peeked over the 100k transactions per day. Now your fake stat is based on a lot of people passing around large volumes of psudo currency currently valued at 17k USD per transaction on average. Now take Paypal that does 8 Million transactions per day, but does about 60 USD per transaction of real "virtual" currency to real people for real purchases.
Heck the transaction fees are absurd. Yesterdays transactions fees totaled 27 Bitcoins for 92k transactions. At the last price of 1222 USD that comes to 33k USD or 35.7 cents per transactions. Visa only takes 10 cents per transaction. Bitcoin fees are only competitive with Paypal transaction fees of 30 cents plus a percentage.
Right now there is less than 100k users of Bitcoins per day, and far less if the average bitcoin user does two transactions per day. There are several Billion people using fiat money every day. Bitcoin has a long way to go, and no real way for it to get there from here.
It can't even be considered a real currency if they can't keep a stable price for a year. I've been able to buy two loaves of very good bread for 4 bucks for about 2 years now, and probably much longer. Using Bitcoins it would radically change each time I went to the store. Some times in my favor, and some times not. That's not a currency. That's a Tulip Bulb.