K12 said:
Marvel already has huge blockbusters.
And so does DC. Knowing that, which I do more or less address, we can rule out the notion that I meant "in general" when I spoke here. But allow me to rephrase: Marvel and DC both want their respective movies
here to be blockbusters, the biggest possible, and bigger than the other movie.
We know those goals are incompatible, but more to the point, this could impact both, either, or neither movie's sales. The fact is, "neither" is almost certainly out, so the odds are pretty long against either one of them. Even if you want to pre-emptively declare a winner.
This decision will cannibalise sales but for Marvel this is less of a problem than for DC.
Not really. Your scenarios are fine, but we already know DC will continue to reboot Batman and Superman. But Marvel? The universe we enjoy hinges on the fact that they can make bank off characters we usually wouldn't see in movies. Saying "it's only Captain America" won't help any because the backbone of their movie studio is "only" guys like Cap. Why? Well, Wolverine and Spider-Man, two of their biggest players, both belong to other studios for film purposes.
I like Iron Man and Thor, but they're also B-Listers.
If Marvel get cold feet then they can always move it back a few weeks without a huge amount of shame. DC couldn't do that without it looking like they have no confidence in their own film. Marvel have all the good will and credibility gained by several successful films to make a dignified withdrawal and DC do not.
DC already looks like they have no confidence in their own films. That's sort of how they got here. Losing face isn't a big issue for them here for that reason. I doubt they have any face to lose with anyone at this point by moving. Now, by losing, they do. One of the reasons they keep making Superman and Batman movies is that even the bad ones make money. But this is a company that was disappointed with a worldwide of 400 million at box office for Superman Returns. That's where they have the most to lose. But that's not to say Marvel doesn't.
And that's why this is surely little more than a game of chicken, too.
I'm not saying I want this to happen, I really don't. However the opportunity for Marvel to damage "Dawn of Justice" at the box office might well be worth the risk.
Yes, and my point is that it might well not be, too. In fact, I would still assert they have more to lose than they do to gain.