Microsoft: "Kinect could triple or quadruple our customer base"

[Saucycarpdog]

http://www.gamerevolution.com/manifesto/microsoft-believes-they-can-quadruple-customer-base-with-kinect-1859

It sounded crazy to me at first too, until I saw [a href=http://www.x2theg.com/2010/10/kinect-for-xbox-360-already-sold-out-at.html]this[/a].

Microsoft might actually succeed with their kinect.

 

[NeedAUserName]

It won't do anything near that. Its an absurd thought. It might double it, but only just, the likelihood is though, that most people that want Kinect already have a 360.

 

[Imp Poster]

Sounds like a marketing ploy to get you to buy a Xbox 360 if you are gonna buy Kinect.

 

[migo]

That actually doesn't support Microsoft's claim at all. If it were increasing the customer base then the Kinect bundles would be sold out, not the add on. If just the add on is sold out that means only people who already have 360s are buying the Kinect, meaning there's no increase in the customer base at all.

That said, in the long term it might happen. If I were a big fan of dancing games I'd probably buy a Kinect, as it's what it's very well suited to and DDR mats have pretty crappy responsiveness. It may turn out that strategy games become a good fit for Kinect as well, or perhaps gorilla arm strikes again.

The other thing might be if they're trying to create a new non-game related experience centred around the TV, with the Kinect used for video chat with some additional features.

 

[Wolfram23]

That actually doesn't support Microsoft's claim at all. If it were increasing the customer base then the Kinect bundles would be sold out, not the add on. If just the add on is sold out that means only people who already have 360s are buying the Kinect, meaning there's no increase in the customer base at all.

That said, in the long term it might happen. If I were a big fan of dancing games I'd probably buy a Kinect, as it's what it's very well suited to and DDR mats have pretty crappy responsiveness. It may turn out that strategy games become a good fit for Kinect as well, or perhaps gorilla arm strikes again.

The other thing might be if they're trying to create a new non-game related experience centred around the TV, with the Kinect used for video chat with some additional features.

This. They sold out of the individual addon units, not the bundles. No growth.

I would be quite doubtful if it even doubles. They do have an edge in that Wii owners might be looking for something HD and slightly different, which means no PS3 since Move is basically the same as Wii. Of course, some people might want the HD Wii experience...

All in all I doubt market share will change a whole lot. Not until one of these companies can come out with a game that's actually good.

 

[rockyoumonkeys]

I thought Sony was supposed to be the delusional one.

 

[Altorin]

That actually doesn't support Microsoft's claim at all. If it were increasing the customer base then the Kinect bundles would be sold out, not the add on. If just the add on is sold out that means only people who already have 360s are buying the Kinect, meaning there's no increase in the customer base at all.

That said, in the long term it might happen. If I were a big fan of dancing games I'd probably buy a Kinect, as it's what it's very well suited to and DDR mats have pretty crappy responsiveness. It may turn out that strategy games become a good fit for Kinect as well, or perhaps gorilla arm strikes again.

The other thing might be if they're trying to create a new non-game related experience centred around the TV, with the Kinect used for video chat with some additional features.

I'm just going to point out that "consumer base" does not directly equal "number of xbox 360s in homes" Microsoft isn't stupid. They know that the core audience isn't too hyped about Kinect... but all those kinect's are being bought by somebody. Either they, or someone they live with owns a 360.. They may be being bought for people who don't know about either by people who have a 360 in a full house.

The idea is that more people in the house will be using the 360... more people in the house using the system means more live subscriptions, more software being sold, these NEW people will LOVE the avatar items, and might actually buy them.. Those people are now Microsoft Xbox 360 consumers, even if they don't own a new 360 of their very own.

My sister for instance, is a 360 consumer.. She buys the Guitar Hero games, and leaves them at my house because she likes to play them with me.. But she doesn't own a 360 herself, but she buys a lot of new games and new peripherals, and her avatar is decked out with things.. and she may end up buying a kinect as well for when she's here.. and if she buys a kinect, she'll be buying games that I normally would have no interest in buying at all.

So they're hoping that in a house of 3-4, that EVERYONE will be using the system when Kinect makes it easier for non-gamers to interface with the console. hence their consumer base will grow.

 

[Programmed_For_Damage]

Double yes; triple I doubt it.

That said I've got mine on pre-order purely for Dance Central. Anything that can teach me to dance anything other than a lanky, awkward white guy is worth it's weight in gold.

 

[MetallicaRulez0]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHA

*breathes*

ahahahahhaha... hahaha... oh man.

That's a good one.

 

[ThePlasmatizer]

I think it could if marketed right.

I have to say why aren't people excited for Kinect? the creative applications for this in games is huge, like RTS.

Even thought Microsoft are not giving us much to hope for we can rely on some thirdt party AAA developer to pick it up. Kinect doesn't have to replace the controller it can augment our playing capabilities.

I'm all for Kinect and I think the price listing in the UK is perfect. £129 for it is fine when I consider how much more expensive tech I have lying around is.

 

[migo]

That actually doesn't support Microsoft's claim at all. If it were increasing the customer base then the Kinect bundles would be sold out, not the add on. If just the add on is sold out that means only people who already have 360s are buying the Kinect, meaning there's no increase in the customer base at all.

That said, in the long term it might happen. If I were a big fan of dancing games I'd probably buy a Kinect, as it's what it's very well suited to and DDR mats have pretty crappy responsiveness. It may turn out that strategy games become a good fit for Kinect as well, or perhaps gorilla arm strikes again.

The other thing might be if they're trying to create a new non-game related experience centred around the TV, with the Kinect used for video chat with some additional features.

I'm just going to point out that "consumer base" does not directly equal "number of xbox 360s in homes" Microsoft isn't stupid. They know that the core audience isn't too hyped about Kinect... but all those kinect's are being bought by somebody. Either they, or someone they live with owns a 360.. They may be being bought for people who don't know about either by people who have a 360 in a full house.

The idea is that more people in the house will be using the 360... more people in the house using the system means more live subscriptions, more software being sold, these NEW people will LOVE the avatar items, and might actually buy them.. Those people are now Microsoft Xbox 360 consumers, even if they don't own a new 360 of their very own.

My sister for instance, is a 360 consumer.. She buys the Guitar Hero games, and leaves them at my house because she likes to play them with me.. But she doesn't own a 360 herself, but she buys a lot of new games and new peripherals, and her avatar is decked out with things.. and she may end up buying a kinect as well for when she's here.. and if she buys a kinect, she'll be buying games that I normally would have no interest in buying at all.

So they're hoping that in a house of 3-4, that EVERYONE will be using the system when Kinect makes it easier for non-gamers to interface with the console. hence their consumer base will grow.

That's a reasonable point, but it's not doubling and certainly not tripling the consumer base. My girlfriend bought a 360, she doesn't use it, but I do now (might as well, can't resell it and it's worth nothing at EB for trade-in). Certainly that's someone new using the system, but that was a zero sum gain as they gained one user and lost another. If the same thing is happening it means someone stopped using their 360 and someone else is using it instead for Kinect. I could see potentially someone buying it for their kids, but realistically the people buying Kinect now are the people who want bleeding edge technology and want to see what it offers - in other words the same people who bought into the Xbox 360 in 2005.

Sony has a much more realistic look at things. They don't expect the move to be a splash hit, but to slowly filter in. It's going to initially sell to people who are interested in seeing the new tech, then it's going to sell to people who want Time Crisis Razing Storm, after that maybe some people trying out PGA Tour 11, then some more who want to see how SOCOM 4 is with it (I'll bet when SOCOM 4 is released it will be as a Move + Navcon bundle).

 

[Cynical skeptic]

Artificial shortages have been part of every launch.

 

[Summerstorm]

Could... but won't

Well, maybe next generation when the damn motion controls are at least a BIT accurate.

 

[Meggiepants]

Eh. Playstation 3s have been sold out everywhere I go for a while as well now. I don't think it means anything in particular other than they didn't make as many as there were customers.

This is a common marketing trick to make something look like it is in demand. The Kindle constantly is sold out, but Amazon does not release sales numbers. My friend just did a huge academic article on ebook hype and sales realities and it is actually quite difficult to get hard numbers on these items. But you wouldn't know it from the press.

Now, I'm not saying that Kinect won't do well, I'm just saying I will not believe articles hyping a product like this. Gamestop benefits by saying they are sold out of something, they get more pre-sales that way. Hell, it's how they punish you for not pre-ordering 3 months in advance.

"We're sorry, we aren't taking pre-orders for that anymore. I guess you should have pre-ordered that 2 months ago when I suggested it, eh? So.... wanna pre-order Portal 2 now?"

 

[CaptainKoala]

Don't like 1 in 5 American's own a 360 already? Think they can get 4 in 5 to own Kinect, that's just a little overoptimistic.

 

[Jumplion]

I'll just post my thoughts on this from another thread;

The main thing I worry about Kinect specifically is how Microsoft is marketing the thing.

Microsoft has no idea how it wants to market the thing. First they say "It's not for Core Gamers" [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/101581-Microsoft-Kinect-Not-For-Core-Gamers] and then they say "The hardcore will love it!" [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/102864-Core-Audience-Will-Love-Kinect-Predicts-Microsoft-Exec] and "The hardcore will buy it first!" [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/101723-Hardcore-Will-Adopt-Kinect-First-Says-Microsoft]. They're going all over the place, spouting that "It'll sell a bajillion units! [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/103519-Microsoft-Predicts-3-Million-Kinect-Sales-Over-the-Holidays] and "It's the biggest platform launch in the WOOORLD!" [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/103571-Kinect-Will-Be-the-Biggest-Platform-Launch-Ever-Says-Microsoft]

Meanwhile, Sony is playing it quietly, even saying that "Kinect helped us market Move." [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/103616-Sony-Claims-Kinect-Helped-Market-Move] If your competitor is thanking you for being so bloody loud, you're doing it wrong.

Sony has taken a more laid back approach, with the "yay buttons!" thing and taking a more sophisticated look [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IouhLjSrYNk] on the Move, showing that it's trying to get a more "mature" experience out of it I guess. Sony has an extensive [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_games_compatible_with_PlayStation_Move] list on what Move is currently going to support (Some being MAG, Killzone 3, Heavy Rain, Echochrome 2, InFamous 2, LBP2, SOCOM 4, even No More Heroes etc...), and while the current games out for it are Wii-ripoffs (obviously), at least there is some potential with upcoming games.

Kinect is clearly going for a "casual" experience, as this clearly shows [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOx6NrHnEB8], but so far we know nothing of future major game titles that will support Kinect aside from possibly Fable 3. I see nothing in this list [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Kinect_games] that's worth noting for the "core" audience as most of them are Wii-ripoffs.

I want Kinect to succeed, I really do, but Microsoft have no idea what the fuck to do with it. I'm afraid that Kinect is going to be dead in the water with it's unfocused advertising and the fact that, as you said, most people who want a Wii already have one.

[sup]And yes, I am biased with Sony, I am the self proclaimed #1 Sony fanboy on the site, but that does not invalidate my opinion[/sup]

Overall, I really want Kinect to succeed, I mean no ill respect for Microsoft and all that.

But for god's sake, shut your damn mouths! Microsoft have no idea what they're doing with Kinect, and that's not fair to the technology as it is fairly impressive.

 

[migo]

Don't like 1 in 5 American's own a 360 already? Think they can get 4 in 5 to own Kinect, that's just a little overoptimistic.

Err, 300 million Americans, that would mean 60 million Americans own a 360, which is clearly not the case. If you make it households with a nuclear family of 4 that would be 15 million sold, but also factoring in that a lot of people bought an extra 360 for pirated copies and that with the average lifespan of a 360 you're looking at 50-75% of owners having bought a second one, it's not even going to be 1 in 5 families owning one.

 

[gamer_parent]

The other thing might be if they're trying to create a new non-game related experience centred around the TV, with the Kinect used for video chat with some additional features.

....

Gutter, meet mind.
Mind, meet gutter.

 

[Glassesguy904]

BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!
Funny joke. Everybody, laugh.

 

[DustyDrB]

That's setting the bar high...