Microsoft: Xbox One's Lifespan is 10 Years "Conservatively"

[fix-the-spade]

Just for the record, when Sony says a console will last ten years, they don't mean that they'll go ten years without releasing it's successor.

Way back in 2007, that is exactly what Sony meant when they said the PS3's lifespan would be at least 10 years, they even expressly said that the price of it was so high because there would not be a PS4 in five or six years time, so the PS3 was more of an investment.

Of course, corporate statement are usually full of it, so here we are, PS4 time.

 

[Vivi22]

Just for the record, when Sony says a console will last ten years, they don't mean that they'll go ten years without releasing it's successor.

Way back in 2007, that is exactly what Sony meant when they said the PS3's lifespan would be at least 10 years, they even expressly said that the price of it was so high because there would not be a PS4 in five or six years time, so the PS3 was more of an investment.

Of course, corporate statement are usually full of it, so here we are, PS4 time.

You do realize there hasn't been a PS4 in five or six years time making that statement completely accurate right? And they really did mean that they would support the PS3 for ten years considering they compared it to their continued support of the PS2 and PSX after their successor consoles came out.

 

[tdylan]

Statements such as this are usually meant with a "meh" from me. Honestly, what do we expect them to say? They're trying to sell us on the XBONE so of course they're going to make claims about it's longevity, prowess, and all that nonsense. I liken it to watching prefight interviews. Someone almost always says "I didn't come here to lose." And they say it with such conviction as though upon hearing it we were all supposed to do a double take and ask:

"Wait a minute! You didn't? Oh man! Well this changes the entire complexion of the fight because honestly, everyone here thought that you came here with every intention of losing."

MS saying: "This console will be around for a long time. Trust us," is par for the course. Even if they absolutely planned on releasing an XBOX Two 3 years from now, does anyone honestly expect that they would say as much with the XBONE having not even launched yet?

 

[Saltyk]

I'm getting a sense of Deja Vu. Anyone else... Oh, it seems there are a few others. Sony made similar statements about the PS3, and while I enjoyed the PS3, I doubted that claim. But I doubt this one even more. By all accounts, the Xbox One is not as strong as the PS4. And that won't last 10 years before a successor console comes out.

I think this is exactly why the whole Xbox as the center of your home concept is so stupid. Coupled with Microsodt's less than stellar history with consoles overheating, I can't say that I think keeping the system on at all times would be good for the machine.

Oh, I have a friend that has an original 360. I think it has suffered RROD, but he was able to fix it.

 

[Dragonbums]

But if games are struggling to get beyond 720p and in some cases (looking at you, DR3) 30FPS now, where's that going to leave the console in a few years time? Never mind 10 years, the Xbox One is going to struggle to keep up for even five at this rate.

Isn't that whole 720p thing just a rumor though?


I highly doubt the Xbox One can't handle that resolution when the Wii U and PS4 supposedly can.

 

[Hazy992]

But if games are struggling to get beyond 720p and in some cases (looking at you, DR3) 30FPS now, where's that going to leave the console in a few years time? Never mind 10 years, the Xbox One is going to struggle to keep up for even five at this rate.

Isn't that whole 720p thing just a rumor though?


I highly doubt the Xbox One can't handle that resolution when the Wii U and PS4 supposedly can.

Just a rumour? Hardly.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2013-10-30-call-of-duty-ghosts-720p-on-xbox-one-1080p-on-ps4

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-battlefield-4-next-gen-vs-pc-face-off-preview

http://www.escapistmagazine.com/forums/read/7.833287-Dead-Rising-3-Locked-at-720p-30-FPS-Capcom-Confirms

http://gamingbolt.com/killer-instinct-dev-anything-that-hinders-60-fps-is-removed-or-optimized-praises-xbox-one-cloud

The Wii U version of COD Ghosts runs at a lower resolution than either and I believe has smaller teams.

EDIT: Wii U version runs at 880x720

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=707843

 

[Dragonbums]

But if games are struggling to get beyond 720p and in some cases (looking at you, DR3) 30FPS now, where's that going to leave the console in a few years time? Never mind 10 years, the Xbox One is going to struggle to keep up for even five at this rate.

Isn't that whole 720p thing just a rumor though?


I highly doubt the Xbox One can't handle that resolution when the Wii U and PS4 supposedly can.

Just a rumour? Hardly.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2013-10-30-call-of-duty-ghosts-720p-on-xbox-one-1080p-on-ps4

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-battlefield-4-next-gen-vs-pc-face-off-preview

http://www.escapistmagazine.com/forums/read/7.833287-Dead-Rising-3-Locked-at-720p-30-FPS-Capcom-Confirms

http://gamingbolt.com/killer-instinct-dev-anything-that-hinders-60-fps-is-removed-or-optimized-praises-xbox-one-cloud

The Wii U version of COD Ghosts runs at a lower resolution than either and I believe has smaller teams.

EDIT: Wii U version runs at 880x720

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=707843

Personally I'll believe it when the console comes out.

I'm not saying you are lying or anything, but I can hardly trust what comes out of the mouths of any devs, game journalists, or publishers nowadays. It's easy to simply put a game that runs at 720p on a system and say the system can't do it.

With the Wii U being out I can believe that (although didn't I hear Pikmin 3 ran at 1080p? So I don't think it's incapable at that.)

However until X1 and PS4 come out I'm still skeptical about it.

 

[Hazy992]

But if games are struggling to get beyond 720p and in some cases (looking at you, DR3) 30FPS now, where's that going to leave the console in a few years time? Never mind 10 years, the Xbox One is going to struggle to keep up for even five at this rate.

Isn't that whole 720p thing just a rumor though?


I highly doubt the Xbox One can't handle that resolution when the Wii U and PS4 supposedly can.

Just a rumour? Hardly.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2013-10-30-call-of-duty-ghosts-720p-on-xbox-one-1080p-on-ps4

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-battlefield-4-next-gen-vs-pc-face-off-preview

http://www.escapistmagazine.com/forums/read/7.833287-Dead-Rising-3-Locked-at-720p-30-FPS-Capcom-Confirms

http://gamingbolt.com/killer-instinct-dev-anything-that-hinders-60-fps-is-removed-or-optimized-praises-xbox-one-cloud

The Wii U version of COD Ghosts runs at a lower resolution than either and I believe has smaller teams.

EDIT: Wii U version runs at 880x720

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=707843

Personally I'll believe it when the console comes out.

I'm not saying you are lying or anything, but I can hardly trust what comes out of the mouths of any devs, game journalists, or publishers nowadays. It's easy to simply put a game that runs at 720p on a system and say the system can't do it.

With the Wii U being out I can believe that (although didn't I hear Pikmin 3 ran at 1080p? So I don't think it's incapable at that.)

However until X1 and PS4 come out I'm still skeptical about it.

Well a developer isn't going to lie about it being only 720p, that's not a desirable thing to have to admit. Call of Duty especially where Xbox is seen as the de facto platform for that game.

This isn't just developers saying this either. Outlets like Digital Foundry have confirmed it.

 

[Psychobabble]

So in other words, expect video game innovation to be held back once again by console technology bottlenecks for the NEXT ten years as well. Fucking brilliant.

 

[Gary Thompson]

Honestly, in ten years both consoles will probably be being outsold by new platforms, so I doubt they'll be holding back the industry for long.

You could also probably get a bargain PC that runs better than them in ten years.

 

[Shdwrnr]

I can see this being true if they go an all digital and all streaming route in the next 5 years. The hardware doesn't have to match PC specs in 10 years, it just has to be able to stream from the servers that are actually processing the game in 10 years. That is already possible, they just need to build up the infrastructure for a while. Specs of the XBone and PS4 don't matter if none of the actual processing/rendering is happening on that machine.

 

[freedash22]

With the Xbox 360 having an RROD record that some professional estimates claim to be as high as 54.2%, I hope Craig Flannagan didn't bet anything more than a dollar because he is so going to lose.

In 3 years, everything about this console will be obsolete let alone 10. And that is just for the XBOX One entertainment system. As far as the hardware is concerned, no way but here is what I think as far as hardware is concerned.

Here is my guess on how Microsoft got this ass of a service life estimate:

1.) Totally ignore tech industry trends.
2.) List down all Microsoft Xbox One Electronic Components (because cases are aesthetic and don't count)
3.) Get the datasheets of all these components
4.) Check estimated component lifespan (Mean Time Before Failure)
5.) Find out the longest lasting component, (which happens to be a Surface-mounted LED; 10 years)
6.) Ignore the weakest link component (shortest life; which could be the PSU, some capacitors, FETs or hard drive)
7.) Fire or reprimand staff who calls this press release plan crazy
8.) Make draft BS statement with BS bet to convince the more intelligent sheep
9.) Launch press release
10.) Update CV

As a PC gamer, one of my quality standards has always been to make a gaming rig that can work meritoriously well for 5 years before requiring an overhaul or component replacement. I can barely make it last that long as the PSU, Motherboard or optical drive will usually fail first at some point (while the CPU and Memory sticks (Corsair) last the longest in my experience; mine are past 5 years). And this is from using the components with the best reviews from newegg (4-5 eggs).

I cannot imagine that a console built with budget components in mind will make it past 6 or even 7 years and with Microsoft's track record, I can't even begin to imagine how. All of your capacitors will have to be solid-state, all contacts of most components have to be gold-plated to resist corrosion (high humidity tropical countries) and the switches will have to be linkageless (or contactless hall-effect sensors) to resist mechanical wear (same for controllers' analogue sticks) and your PCB has to be solid state and encapsulated to prevent tracks from lifting due to stress and from parts corroding in tropical countries. Heat dissipation will have to be beyond excellent to reduce thermal shock. Motors will have to be completely encapsulated as well. And the Blu-ray laser diode and lens has to be stellar and dirt resistant. I can imagine this list goes on and on but you get the point.

So 10 years!? Maybe if it wasn't used.

 

[Psychobabble]

Ten years ago, cutting-edge PCs were running Pentium 4 processors.

If anyone here is still getting productive use out of a P4 (without having converted it to a Linux box or something), I'll eat my hat.

HA HA!! You lose!! I'm using my old Pentium 4 computer as a door stop. Works a treat. Want any special sauce for that hat? XD

Actually I'm using mine as a retro dos/win game box so I don't have to mess with all the Dos box malarkey.

 

[freedash22]

Ten years ago, cutting-edge PCs were running Pentium 4 processors.

If anyone here is still getting productive use out of a P4 (without having converted it to a Linux box or something), I'll eat my hat.

Well my friend, this is why you don't bet online! I am still using my Pentium 4 LGA775 3.0 GHz Dual-core Wolfdale processor. It's a star and your hat is gone!

 

[hermes]

Why are so many people focusing on the technological side of the lifecycle, when its clearly not the focus here? The Playstation 2 was released in 2000 and was less powerful than many computers at the time, yet the game still came out for ever ten years... THAT is the life cycle console manufacturers are referring to. That the console will keep providing for x amount of years after their initial release, because first and third party publishers will keep on supporting it.

Honestly, I believe that is a pipedream, specially considering the track record of Microsoft and the support they seem to expect for the 360 after the XB1 is released.

 

[freedash22]

HA HA!! You lose!! I'm using my old Pentium 4 computer as a door stop. Works a treat. Want any special sauce for that hat? XD

Actually I'm using mine as a retro dos/win game box so I don't have to mess with all the Dos box malarkey.

Daaaamn youuuuu Psychobabble!!! I suppose my fishing hat has the most flavor... I'm not eating the ushakna though. ;P

Honestly, I think I have a P3 that's still running. It's in pieces and cobbled together and was last used as a file server for porn, but it should still boot. It'd be impossible to get replacement parts for it these days though. Heck, I had the mobo go out on my Athlon XP 2800+ a few months ago and there's simply no replacement board for it available anywhere.

I am still using my Pentium 4 LGA775 3.0 GHz Dual-core Wolfdale processor. It's a star and your hat is gone!

Sorry, the Wolfdale isn't a Pentium 4. P4's were only produced up until 2008.

LOL! You got me there! But that was fun! Cheers!