Microsoft's Spencer: Natal Is "Fraught With Risk"

hypothetical fact

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Mornelithe said:
Yog Sothoth said:
Mornelithe said:
Yog Sothoth said:
Mornelithe said:
Yog Sothoth said:
Brotherofwill said:
Good notice though, people tend to forget about games like GT 5 in the current shooter-dominated environment.

Edit: Wait a sec GT 5 prologue sold 4 mil? Woah, maybe 10 mil for the 5th iteration isn't so far off afterall :p.
*Cough-cough* Forza Motorsport 3 *cough*

...sorry about that... had something in my throat I guess...

Ok, I'm done here for now... been nice chatting with you all!
We're talking about serious franchises, not flash in the pan ones. Forza's got nothing on any of the games we're talking about. Case in point, Forza 3 hasn't even outsold Forza 2, let alone Prologue.
If I didn't know any better, I'd call that some serious flame-bait...

Forza is anything but a "flash in the pan"... It is one of 2009's highest rated 360 exclusives, has a robust and thriving fan base, offers many features that Gran Turismo up to this point lacks such as damage modeling & a livery editor AND has put out three titles in the interim between GT4 and the oft-delayed GT5.

Forza 3 has barely been out three months, so comparing it's sales numbers to any other game is rather pointless...
No, it's not flamebait, it's facts. Forza 3 hasn't sold enough to warrant any entrance to this conversation. The fact that Prologue's nearly outsold Forza 3, on a lesser install base. Is only testament to this fact. There's no denying the drawing power of Halo or Gears, but Forza? Sorry, it's not come close to the following that Gran Turismo, or the aforementioned IP's have.

And yes, 3 ip's have come out, and combined, they've not even come CLOSE to what Gran Turismo 4 sold. To say nothing of A-Spec. And considering GT5 hasn't been released yet, unless you're a PD employee working on the project, your assessment of what will and won't be in GT, is about as relevant as your perspective on Forza's amazing sales figures.

PS. Oft-delayed you say? I suggest you take a look back at your facts, and find me where you think GT5 got an NA/Euro release date, more than once. You won't find it because it never happened. The 'delay' only affects Japan. Not the launch window for the rest of the world.
Ok, I'm not sure how this became an argument about which of those two franchises have sold better, but I'll play along for now...

Here are some sales comparisons provided by www.vgchartz.com. The first one compares Forza 2 to Gran Turismo 5 Prologue. The numbers on the left describe the total number of units sold, and the numbers at the bottom indicate how many weeks the game has been on sale. I chose to compare these two games since they've both been available for roughly the same amount of time...

As you can see in the first chart, Forza 2 outsold GT Prologue by about 500,000 over the lifespan of the two games.

[http://Yog-Sothoth.gamerdna.com/images/9NInINB/sales1-jpg]

Now, here is a chart that compares Forza 3 to GT Prologue over a period of 100 weeks. While Forza 3 has only been out for a fraction of the time that GT has, you can clearly see that it appears to be on track to at least be competitive. It's also worth noting that in the first 15 weeks of each of these games release, Forza topped sales of 2 million while GT hadn't even broke 400,000 over the same amount of time.

[http://Yog-Sothoth.gamerdna.com/images/MIcnIOj/sales2-jpg]

Obviously there are many mitigating factors here such as install base and which markets the games were originally released in, but I think that at the least I've demonstrated that you've dismissed the Forza franchise out of hand, and that it's a successful franchise by any measure.

And last, GT 5 has been delayed. Again. Recently. Of course it has to come out in Japan before it does anywhere else, ergo a delay there probably equals a delay for the rest of the world as well. Gran Turismo 5 Forced to Pit Again [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/97527-Gran-Turismo-5-Forced-to-Pit-Again]

Not trying to start a flame war, noting personal, etc, etc... I simply disagree with your assertions...

EDIT: Chart one is a period of 300 weeks, chart 2 is 100. Hope that's not too confusing.
Forza's only sold 500K more units than the _prologue_ version of GT5. Wrap whatever spin you want, but thems the facts. Forza 2, has been out much longer, and has sold even LESS. So..it tells me the initial hype for Forza, drops out pretty damn quick. We've seen it happen with a great many games people thought would be critically acclaimed and sell like wildfire, but, in reality the sales turn out to be much more tepid.

The game, has been delayed in Japan. Do you live in Japan? Does one delay constitute 'Oft-delayed' as you suggested previously? No, it doesn't. No you don't. Therefore, Gran Turismo, hasn't been delayed for you. Or for me. Get it? Hope it's not too confusing.
If your argument is that they can't be compared because GT5 isn't out yet then stop arguing and wait for it to come out. Unless you enjoy going in circular arguments.
 

Xersues

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How is halo more successful to a game not even out yet? Give me a break your logic is terrible. No one knows how popular GoW 3 is. It isn't even out. Freaking fanboys.

Playstation Eye has been doing the same things that Natal is doing for over a year now. Perhaps not to the same precision, but I'd more likely believe its because no major studios have tried it. Eye games pretty much are like parlor games on the PS3 and no new ones have bothered to come out recently. The Arc looks very cool however. I like actually having a controller. I don't trust Natal "reading my movements".
 

Chewster

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I don't really buy it, to be honest. Microsoft isn't exactly known for taking chances, so odds are they think this thing is going to make them a fuckton of money, or they wouldn't be bothering with it. I mean, look at how the Wii has sold. They want some of that pie now.

Mind you, they might have realized they have bitten off more then they can chew with this one or they have decided that they hype has spiraled out of control, and are trying to make up excuses already.
 

BrotherRool

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Quad08 said:
Korten12 said:
Quad08 said:
John Funk said:
give us your own equivalent of The Last Guardian and God of War III and we'll call it even, okay?
Mass Effect? I heard that it was a Xbox 360 exclusive that was fairly well received and that there is even a squeal coming out for it soon...
its also on PC.
And God Of War is on the PSP. But thank you for that correction
God of War isn't on PSP. A God of War franchise game is on the PSP, the PSP was built from the ground up and is very good. Mass Effect, the same as on the 360 but without the bugs, poor car handling, or slow loading times, is on the PC.

EDIT: And it's all missing the point. God of War is a bad example, good examples are Little Big Planet, Heavy Rain, ModNation Racers, Demons Souls, MAG (to some extent), Valkyria Chronicles, Resistance 2 online, Ratchett and Clank, Home

They're all very different, very unique games. Microsoft are criticised for not having nearly enough games like that yet (Mass Effect is a semi-example. In many ways it's typical Bioware and also if you have sense, patience and less money you will buy the PC version which is far far better). Alan Wake is the example he should've held up in return. Not Natal which is roughly as risky as the Arc, and Xbox arcade which isn't fresh (the games are, but since when has, cheap low risk browser-type downloadable games been very risky?). They've done good work with the Arcade but it hasn't been risky work. Even then the PSN has more risky DLC games (Flower, Noby Noby Boy, PixelJunk Eden, Flow)
 

Quad08

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BrotherRool said:
Quad08 said:
Korten12 said:
Quad08 said:
John Funk said:
give us your own equivalent of The Last Guardian and God of War III and we'll call it even, okay?
Mass Effect? I heard that it was a Xbox 360 exclusive that was fairly well received and that there is even a squeal coming out for it soon...
its also on PC.
And God Of War is on the PSP. But thank you for that correction
God of War isn't on PSP. A God of War franchise game is on the PSP, the PSP was built from the ground up and is very good. Mass Effect, the same as on the 360 but without the bugs, poor car handling, or slow loading times, is on the PC.

Funny, I was just talking about troll bait on another forum...

I really don't understand why you bothered to point this out again, seeing as how I did accept my mistake in the above quote, unless you wanted to make the argument about the "God of War isn't on the PSP but it is" argument know or the "Mass Effect 360 copy is buggy and therefore is different" argument.
 

whycantibelinus

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"Microsoft takes fewer risks than Sony when it comes to first-party development."

That's because Microsoft knows that third party developers are way better at making games than Microsoft could ever be.
 

BrotherRool

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Quad08 said:
Funny, I was just talking about troll bait on another forum...

I really don't understand why you bothered to point this out again, seeing as how I did accept my mistake in the above quote, unless you wanted to make the argument about the "God of War isn't on the PSP but it is" argument know or the "Mass Effect 360 copy is buggy and therefore is different" argument.
Well if your ealyl want to go into the particulars I can always replay what happened to you. You called Mass Effect a 360 exclusive, someone corrected your mistake, you countered by saying God of War also wasn't an exclusive and I corrected you. God of War is an exclusive, but the franchise is on multiple consoles is the point you are missing, whereas Mass Effect isn't an exclusive full stop. God of War: Chains of olympus has a different story, gameplay, level design and setting in the mythology. Mass Effect on the PC is just the same game but better.

I understand your point about troll bait but if you don't want to discuss on a forum then aren't we being counter-intuitive? Especially since you had just replied to someones point with something that didn't make a whole lot of sense to me
 

Quad08

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BrotherRool said:
Honestly, I have no idea what arguments you are bringing up, but I see the points you are trying to make. Personally, I'm tired of people quoting me on this so can we all just give it a rest already? Thanks
 

Techni

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ignor
Kwil said:
Techni said:
We're trying something completely new where there's no device in your hand
Something completely new, just like eyetoy/PSeye
It's terrible how people expose their ignorance.
Like you JUST did. Re-read what I quoted you illiterate hypocrite.

"completely new, where there is no device in your hand"

JUST LIKE EYETOY. What part of THAT QUOTE didn't match eyetoy?

Face it, eyetoy is an input method where there is no device in your hand! Thus, as per his words, Natal is not completely new.
 

squid5580

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breadlord said:
JWW said:
Console flamewar!

In all seriousness, I fear Natal. If its motion controls don't work (they won't), then everyone with an Xbox will have to choose between getting new games on a broken console, or switching to a new console.
The Xbox 360 was broken for 3 years, then the whole 15 million people with the broken ones HAD to switch consoles, as in, a new 360 or a PS3. Thus it seems more like a very well built....scam.... (No grudge to the 360 at all, most of my friends are on it.)
You do know that Natal is sold separate right? That you won't have to buy it unless you want to play the games for it. And that your 360 will work fine without it.

If it works proper and gets some good developer support behind it well it could be a must have piece of equipment. Then again rainbow colored monkeys could fly out of my ass at any given second. I wonder which one has the higher odds of actually happening.
 

Freshman

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did it keep him up at night because he thought it would be a flop and he would lose his job, or because he thought it might go skynet on him?
 

breadlord

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squid5580 said:
breadlord said:
JWW said:
Console flamewar!

In all seriousness, I fear Natal. If its motion controls don't work (they won't), then everyone with an Xbox will have to choose between getting new games on a broken console, or switching to a new console.
The Xbox 360 was broken for 3 years, then the whole 15 million people with the broken ones HAD to switch consoles, as in, a new 360 or a PS3. Thus it seems more like a very well built....scam.... (No grudge to the 360 at all, most of my friends are on it.)
You do know that Natal is sold separate right? That you won't have to buy it unless you want to play the games for it. And that your 360 will work fine without it.

If it works proper and gets some good developer support behind it well it could be a must have piece of equipment. Then again rainbow colored monkeys could fly out of my ass at any given second. I wonder which one has the higher odds of actually happening.
Everyone will buy it, that's the point. Microsoft will practically be throwing them at people and forcing them to pay and play because from Peter, "The best thing in the world." So the..(finishes reading what you said), I choose the flying monkeys that are rainbow covered.
 

squid5580

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I honestly don't think everyone will run out and buy it for a couple reasons. First everyone already owns a WII (and if you say you don't we know you are lying) and it works. It has been established.

Secondly we gamers have been burnt way to many times before. How many of these fancy type cameras have you seen in your lifetime? Now how many of those actually worked?
 

Joeshie

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John Funk said:
You know what, Phil? It's true, you're not wrong - Live was a risky venture, and Natal is certainly a risk. But I don't think that's what people really mean when they criticize Microsoft for lack of first-party exclusives. Sure, by all means, work on Natal, but then give us your own equivalent of The Last Guardian and God of War III and we'll call it even, okay?
I'm not sure what you're criticizing Microsoft for. Microsoft has more exclusives (at the present time) than Sony does on the PS3.