Well, actually I think MMORPGS mostly fail due to a lack of creativity. The reason why WoW continues to dominate is simply because it's the best thing out there. It's very well polished, has a lot of people who have invested insane amounts of time in it, and has continued to grow as time has gone on, as well as continue to innovate new features and events. The way the world can morph to your character based on what you have done, driving siege engines, and other things are all innovations that came out with Lich King for example.
In comparison Age Of Conan and WAR were buggy messes that might have innovated in a couple of areas but were also FAR below the dominant MMORPG overall. For example in WAR there was little variability between gear and such, limited equipment sets made everyone look pretty much the same. Age Of Conan had some potential, but didn't actually deliver 9/10ths of what it promised, being sort of the Peter Molyneux of the MMO crowd... except where Peter still turns out an above average product, AoC was a stinking turd once you got past the tutorial.
It's important to note that the success of WoW was largely due to it's unprecedented budget when it was developed. In comparison other MMORPGs are developed on a shoestring. Also Blizzard was given a free hand to sit on it until it was done to their satisfaction, most MMORPGs do not have that luxury.
Right now to take down WoW will involve someone willing to come up with record setting amounts of money, meaning they will have to wait a year or three before they start to see returns (a big gamble), and then be patient while their team works. So we're talking someone (or more likely a group of someones) laying down probably what would currently be a couple hundred million bucks, seeing a game spend as much as 5 years in development, and then having to wait 2-3 years of operation (if it succeeds) to see the returns. Most producers aren't willing to do stuff like that, they want their money to multiply RIGHT NOW! A couple years
of development time is the most they are willing to wait in many cases. WoW is more or less the result of a "perfect storm" of online RPG development variables.
It's also noteworthy to keep in mind that current MMORPGs are not competing with WoW as it was a few years ago when it launched. They are competing with WoW *now*. Sitting down and saying "well, we've got as much content as WoW did when it launched" doesn't work because when your competing in entertainment value and how quickly people are going to max it out, you have to consider what WoW has now to keep people occupied.
The realities of MMORPG development have simply resulting in a lot of WoW players simply trying out a new game here and there, while they play WoW, or during brief lapses of interest/burn out. However lacking any other games with the same enduring value or quality, it's always back to WoW at the end.
Right now I have no vested interest in WoW going down. I feel that nothing is forever though and due to the time I've put into it, I'd prefer that they eventually shut it down (with an epic send off) when the next big game arrives, as opposed to wringing every last penny out of it as it grows increasingly pathetic with time when this day arrives.
Truthfully I've been watching games for a while, and honestly the only MMO that has the vibe that it COULD overcome WoW is "The Old Republic". Bioware is a quality team of developers, allegedly has a high production budget, and also seems to be able to do justice to their franchise. As nice as the current bits I've seen are though, there are enduring questions about how much content there actually is. The most awesome MMO in the world is going to get crushed by WOW unless you can literally put hundreds of hours into it, not counting grinding. If your going to be able to see every zone in the game inside of 2 weeks (even just passing through) then chances are there is going to be a problem.
Age of Conan as it was hyped could have perhaps gone head to head with WoW, but simply put it did NOT have 40+ character classes, it's city development and battleground systems were nothing like promised, and overall it was a general mess. Heck, I was one of those people who was kind of excited about getting a War Mammoth as a pre-order bonus: a combat capable mount that doubles as a siege engine! The reality was however something else entirely, AoC being the only game that could make riding a bloody War Mammoth feel like a chore/disadvantage. I mean when I summon my mighty steed and then go "dang, travelling would be much easier and more fun if I was on foot" there is a problem.
The only game with worse steeds than the AoC ones (Mammoth, Rhino, etc...) is arguably Two Worlds. Two Worlds needs some kind of special catagory for horrendously annoying and unfun mounts. As a result of Two World I have become instantly skeptical of any game that promotes mounted combat.
