Mythbusting on the escapist.

[DexterNorgam]

Man, I can't believe some of the garbage that gets bandied about on this site like its truth. A few days ago I enlightened a few people about this silly myth that Fox News filed suit for the right to lie to its viewers. (really? lol.) You can read about that here... http://www.escapistmagazine.com/forums/read/18.311848-Fox-news-and-the-right-to-lie-Myth#12639096

Now I'd like to talk about another laughable fallacy I keep hearing brought up on this forum. Every time someone talks about America some dingbat in the peanut gallery pipes up with "yea, well Americans must be stupid because 51% of them don't even believe in evolution!!" which of course leads into all the jokes about cowboy Jesus riding a dinosaur and so on and so on.

This is likely in reference to a 2009 poll conducted by telephone by CBS. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2005/10/22/opinion/polls/main965223.shtml CBS. I really hope that nobody here is trying to say that CBS is any more trustworthy than any other american red or blue koolaid factory, because they too have been proven to be liars in the past.

So lets let that slide. Lets ignore that the source is CBS. Does this still wash? Nope. Because it only takes the most cursory examination to show that they called a whopping 808 people. That's important when you consider that in 2009 the estimated population of the US was 309 MILLION people. 808 people is a pretty small portion of 309 million. It may have been more accurate and less misleading if this poll were to have said that 51% of 0.0002614886731391586% of Americans do not believe in in evolution.

That doesn't even mention that there's no information to be had on where in America those 808 phone calls were made to. I believe that the replies to those questions would be vastly different between calling say.... New York City, and the Ozarks. I'm sure you would get different answers between calling Los Angeles and say, Mormons in Utah.

To put it in perspective, would British people on this forum accept a poll that surveyed 800 gypsies as representative of the entire nation??

If you're a person who's been perpetuating this myth, stop. It's not true and it serves nobody to spread rumor myth or hyperbole about each others nationalities.

 

[Trivea]

Sample surveys do that, though. I don't think I've ever heard of any survey here in the States short of the "survey" conducted every few years by the census bureau that contacts more than a handful of Americans. Most of the time, and I'm pretty sure it's like this everywhere, they just take a sample of different locations, ethnicity, genders, etc and say "well one white woman in Arizona feels this way so they must all feel that way".

I mean, on the one hand, it's just not practical to do a survey of even 1 million of that 309 million; on the other hand, it's not cool to go to a school where most everyone likes the lunch served on Tuesdays, talk to two kids about it (one of whom hates it and the other whom loves it) and say that half the students hate it.

But, of course, as far as the actual "fact" that people quote all over the place, it's pretty common for people to call others stupid because they disagree with them about something. Ignorant? Sure. But common.

 

[Stall]

So lets let that slide. Lets ignore that the source is CBS. Does this still wash? Nope. Because it only takes the most cursory examination to show that they called a whopping 808 people. That's important when you consider that in 2009 the estimated population of the US was 309 MILLION people. 808 people is a pretty small portion of 309 million. It may have been more accurate and less misleading if this poll were to have said that 51% of 0.0002614886731391586% of Americans do not believe in in evolution.

/facepalm. You are so wrong. You are so wrong that it caused me physical pain. You clearly do not know anything about sampling theory. Hell, you probably didn't even know something called "sampling theory" even existed.

Listen, when you sample (which means "take a survey") you want it to be representative, which means you construct a random sample (which is what the CBS survey did). This randomization ensures that all elements in the sample space (i.e. everyone in America) has an equally likely chance of being selected. If you have a random sample, then you can use various techniques of statistical inference to generalize the results of your sample to the population as a whole, which is again, what this study did. The study is not invalid because of its small sample size. It's called "sampling" for a reason. A basic understanding of Statistics would have saved yourself the embarrassment of so grossly misunderstanding the field.

Please, learn something about statistics before you try to talk about it. I'm in the process of applying to Masters/PhD programs in Statistics... I sort of know a little more about this sort-of thing than you.

 

[Stall]

Double post.

 

[Versuvius]

OP and Stall both have points. No it is unfair to judge based on 800 people, but statistics are the only feasable way to get these kind of opinion polls done (It is opinion, people's opinion on evolution or not regardless of scientific fact, don't pass it off as anything else) the only reasonable way to deduce 51% of americans are thickies is to conduct multiple randomised surveys. If many of them say 51% of americans believe jesus is white, rides a raptor and they are randomised (And not all conducted in say, the bible belt) then sadly it stops being myth.

 

[DexterNorgam]

So lets let that slide. Lets ignore that the source is CBS. Does this still wash? Nope. Because it only takes the most cursory examination to show that they called a whopping 808 people. That's important when you consider that in 2009 the estimated population of the US was 309 MILLION people. 808 people is a pretty small portion of 309 million. It may have been more accurate and less misleading if this poll were to have said that 51% of 0.0002614886731391586% of Americans do not believe in in evolution.

/facepalm. You are so wrong. You are so wrong that it caused me physical pain. You clearly do not know anything about sampling theory. Hell, you probably didn't even know something called "sampling theory" even existed.

Listen, when you sample (which means "take a survey") you want it to be representative, which means you construct a random sample (which is what the CBS survey did). This randomization ensures that all elements in the sample space (i.e. everyone in America) has an equally likely chance of being selected. If you have a random sample, then you can use various techniques of statistical inference to generalize the results of your sample to the population as a whole, which is again, what this study did. The study is not invalid because of its small sample size. It's called "sampling" for a reason. A basic understanding of Statistics would have saved yourself the embarrassment of so grossly misunderstanding the field.

Please, learn something about statistics before you try to talk about it. I'm in the process of applying to Masters/PhD programs in Statistics... I sort of know a little more about this sort-of thing than you.

Wow, way to get rude and insulting.

Ok Mr. PHD, knowing so much about statistics I'm sure you're aware that anyone can make any survey say pretty much anything they want by manipulating the questions asked and who they are asked to. You take it on faith that CBS (a news outlet proven to also be liars) wanted a representative result. I don't make that same assumption. Without information about the sample, there's just no telling how representative this thing actually is. If you choose to believe that 808 people can really represent 309 million you go ahead, I need a bit more proof.

 

[Robert Ewing]

Mythbusting? Global warming.

 

[BlumiereBleck]

YEAH!!! You tell 'em!!

 

[targren]

Please, learn something about statistics before you try to talk about it. I'm in the process of applying to Masters/PhD programs in Statistics... I sort of know a little more about this sort-of thing than you.

While you're not wrong about the statistics part of it, that OP clearly didn't get, he might possibly have a point anyway. Unless the methodology is clearly visible, including the exact wording of the questions used, it's entirely possible to mess with the results without actually falsifying the statistics. I.e. Applying 'spin.'

If 75% of the sample answers yes to "Do you trust the government to take care of the people?" then the spin doctor comes in and reports it as "75% of respondents said that they believe that President Douchenozzle's adminstration represents their best interests."

 

[DexterNorgam]

Mythbusting? Global warming.

Heh, I'd love to do that one, but this place is just too liberal, I'd have the people who really believe in that all over me.

 

[Stall]

Wow, way to get rude and insulting.

Ok Mr. PHD, knowing so much about statistics I'm sure you're aware that anyone can make any survey say pretty much anything they want by manipulating the questions asked and who they are asked to. You take it on faith that CBS (a news outlet proven to also be liars) wanted a representative result. I don't make that same assumption.

No, you can't "make a survey" say whatever you want. The manner in which the questions were presented was clear in the article. They gave the particpants three choices: 1. Human beings evolved from less advanced life forms over millions of years, and God did not directly guide this process; 2. Human beings evolved from less advanced life forms over millions of years, but God guided this process; or 3. God created human beings in their present form. Those are all fairly worded, and there doesn't appear to be any bias in those. Perhaps you should more critically read the articles you link next time before you start blindly accusing your source of bias. Oh, and you get a representative result whenever you randomly select your participants. They selected 808 people all across America at random; ergo, the results are representative.

Like I said, learn about sampling theory please. You clearly know next to nothing about it.

You want to know how else you are wrong? <url=http://www.gallup.com/poll/21814/evolution-creationism-intelligent-design.aspx>Gallup puts the number of Americans who believe God developed humans in their current form at 40%. There. Gallup is one of the single most respected pollster groups in the nation. Is that good enough for you, or are you going to accuse motherfucking Gallup of bias?

 

[Robert Ewing]

Mythbusting? Global warming.

Heh, I'd love to do that one, but this place is just too liberal, I'd have the people who really believe in that all over me.

People only believe in that crap about global warming because some idiot failure American president made some film about the bloody thing.

All the predictions he made on the that film, have been proved wrong. One after the other, without fail. The only one he managed to get right is that humans produce C02. Wow, give the guy a presidency. Oh.

 

[Versuvius]

Mythbusting? Global warming.

Heh, I'd love to do that one, but this place is just too liberal, I'd have the people who really believe in that all over me.

'Too liberal'...good gods it DOES need discussing. Or teaching conventionally by someone who isn't fox news.

Global warming is used incorrectly, yes, but in general the earth is heating up. What people refer to as 'global warming' is 'global climate change'. Live in a country like England where the only thing stopping you being on par with siberia temperature range wise and instead getting south of france in a good summer all because of an atmospheric and oceanic conveyor belt thats playing silly buggers due to large amounts of pure water melting into the ocean, then tell me its a complete utter fallacy. We may however agree on how it's used as a scare tactic and it isn't going to cause The End of The World As We Know It.

People who disbelieve it utterly are utter fools to do so. But a piss in the ocean in the grand scheme of things as long as more people become aware that they probably shouldn't have every piece of electrical gadgetry ever made on the go all day every day or drive a tractor to work that eats 10 gallons to the mile.

 

[DexterNorgam]

Wow, way to get rude and insulting.

Ok Mr. PHD, knowing so much about statistics I'm sure you're aware that anyone can make any survey say pretty much anything they want by manipulating the questions asked and who they are asked to. You take it on faith that CBS (a news outlet proven to also be liars) wanted a representative result. I don't make that same assumption.

No, you can't "make a survey" say whatever you want. The manner in which the questions were presented was clear in the article. They gave the particpants three choices: 1. Human beings evolved from less advanced life forms over millions of years, and God did not directly guide this process; 2. Human beings evolved from less advanced life forms over millions of years, but God guided this process; or 3. God created human beings in their present form. Those are all fairly worded, and there doesn't appear to be any bias in those. Perhaps you should more critically read the articles you link next time before you start blindly accusing your source of bias. Oh, and you get a representative result whenever you randomly select your participants. They selected 808 people all across America at random; ergo, the results are representative.

Like I said, learn about sampling theory please. You clearly know next to nothing about it.

You want to know how else you are wrong? <url=http://www.gallup.com/poll/21814/evolution-creationism-intelligent-design.aspx>Gallup puts the number of Americans who believe God developed humans in their current form at 40%. There. Gallup is one of the single most respected pollster groups in the nation. Is that good enough for you, or are you going to accuse motherfucking Gallup of bias?

Yep, clearly theres no such thing as spin. LOL

Listen, 1. no reason to be so insulting. 2. All the high and mighty knowledge you are bringing to bear on this about the science of sampling does not mean that CBS actually applied ANY of it. 3. 40% is not 51% is it?

 

[Kinguendo]

Mythbusting? Global warming.

Heh, I'd love to do that one, but this place is just too liberal, I'd have the people who really believe in that all over me.

Is there such a thing as being too Liberal? He wants peace and equality so much... look at him being fair to women AND gay people... oh no, hes talking to a black person AND a white person at the same time. DONT CROSS THE STREAMS! He doesnt like violence and doesnt want to shoot people... TOO LIBERAL!

I honestly dont understand the concept of "Too Liberal".

 

[DexterNorgam]

Mythbusting? Global warming.

Heh, I'd love to do that one, but this place is just too liberal, I'd have the people who really believe in that all over me.

'Too liberal'...good gods it DOES need discussing. Or teaching conventionally by someone who isn't fox news.

Global warming is used incorrectly, yes, but in general the earth is heating up. What people refer to as 'global warming' is 'global climate change'. Live in a country like England where the only thing stopping you being on par with siberia temperature range wise and instead getting south of france in a good summer all because of an atmospheric and oceanic conveyor belt thats playing silly buggers due to large amounts of pure water melting into the ocean, then tell me its a complete utter fallacy. We may however agree on how it's used as a scare tactic and it isn't going to cause The End of The World As We Know It.

People who disbelieve it utterly are utter fools to do so. But a piss in the ocean in the grand scheme of things as long as more people become aware that they probably shouldn't have every piece of electrical gadgetry ever made on the go all day every day or drive a tractor to work that eats 10 gallons to the mile.

I don't utterly disbelieve in climate change. I don't think man-made global warming is the problem its made out to be though.

 

[DexterNorgam]

Mythbusting? Global warming.

Heh, I'd love to do that one, but this place is just too liberal, I'd have the people who really believe in that all over me.

Is there such a thing as being too Liberal? He wants peace and equality so much... look at him being fair to women AND gay people... oh no, hes talking to a black person AND a white person at the same time. DONT CROSS THE STREAMS! He doesnt like violence and doesnt want to shoot people... TOO LIBERAL!

I honestly dont understand the concept of "Too Liberal".

its exactly like the concept "too conservative".

Ya know, he values personal freedom more than government nanny states and entitlement programs... and the like...

Don't be silly both sides of the isle there have good points but yea, both can be taken too far too.

 

[Stall]

While you're not wrong about the statistics part of it, that OP clearly didn't get, he might possibly have a point anyway. Unless the methodology is clearly visible, including the exact wording of the questions used, it's entirely possible to mess with the results without actually falsifying the statistics. I.e. Applying 'spin.'

If 75% of the sample answers yes to "Do you trust the government to take care of the people?" then the spin doctor comes in and reports it as "75% of respondents said that they believe that President Douchenozzle's adminstration represents their best interests."

True, but I don't believe that's the case here. They present their data in a fairly straight forward way: the frequency of the number of people who picked each opinion. Spin is always something you have to be suspicious about, yes, but it doesn't look like there is much danger of it here. I really don't think that is very likely.

From what I am reading, CBS's opinion polls seem to be pretty vanilla in terms of execution. Nothing too wrong or egregious. The only fishy thing is their weighing, which is hard to tell if it had any effect, given that you can't see the raw data. Weighing is a common practice, but it is possible that there is some kind of unsavory manipulation going on there, but it's not enough to outright dismiss the survey like the OP did. CBS is not Gallup or Pew, sure, but their results seem valid enough. The results line up with most of the other results I've seen about Americans who totally reject evolution, which is pretty consistently around 40-50.

Yep, clearly theres no such thing as spin. LOL

Listen, 1. no reason to be so insulting. 2. All the high and mighty knowledge you are bringing to bear on this about the science of sampling does not mean that CBS actually applied ANY of it. 3. 40% is not 51% is it?

See my above paragraph regarding spin. The manner in which the results are presented is pretty fair. I don't see much chance for spin. And CBS did apply all those things I discussed. They have a brief, rather simplified <url=http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-215_162-299401.htm>FAQ of their sampling techniques, and everything pretty much reads how it should. It's rather primitive, but they don't do anything that causes red lights to go up.

40% and 51% aren't far enough apart to raise many alarms.Results from samples are always going to be different. And since different groups with slightly different people running them sample in different ways, you inevitably get difference. Most numbers I see regarding Americans who believe God created man in his current state is usually around the neighborhood of 50%. The results from Gallup are probably better, since their polling techniques are vastly more refined, but that doesn't really invalidate the CBS poll as you so charge. And even then, it's not like 40% is a huge improvement over 51% -_-

So you are still more or less wrong.

 

[DexterNorgam]

While you're not wrong about the statistics part of it, that OP clearly didn't get, he might possibly have a point anyway. Unless the methodology is clearly visible, including the exact wording of the questions used, it's entirely possible to mess with the results without actually falsifying the statistics. I.e. Applying 'spin.'

If 75% of the sample answers yes to "Do you trust the government to take care of the people?" then the spin doctor comes in and reports it as "75% of respondents said that they believe that President Douchenozzle's adminstration represents their best interests."

True, but I don't believe that's the case here. They present their data in a fairly straight forward way: the frequency of the number of people who picked each opinion. Spin is always something you have to be suspicious about, yes, but it doesn't look like there is much danger of it here. I really don't think that is very likely.

From what I am reading, CBS's opinion polls seem to be pretty vanilla in terms of execution. Nothing too wrong or egregious. The only fishy thing is their weighing, which is hard to tell if it had any effect, given that you can't see the raw data. Weighing is a common practice, but it is possible that there is some kind of unsavory manipulation going on there, but it's not enough to outright dismiss the survey like the OP did. CBS is not Gallup or Pew, sure, but their results seem valid enough. The results line up with most of the other results I've seen about Americans who totally reject evolution, which is pretty consistently around 40-50.

Yep, clearly theres no such thing as spin. LOL

Listen, 1. no reason to be so insulting. 2. All the high and mighty knowledge you are bringing to bear on this about the science of sampling does not mean that CBS actually applied ANY of it. 3. 40% is not 51% is it?

See my above paragraph regarding spin. The manner in which the results are presented is pretty fair. I don't see much chance for spin. And CBS did apply all those things I discussed. They have a brief, rather simplified <url=http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-215_162-299401.htm>FAQ of their sampling techniques, and everything pretty much reads how it should. It's rather primitive, but they don't do anything that causes red lights to go up.

40% and 51% aren't far enough apart to raise many alarms.Results from samples are always going to be different. And since different groups with slightly different people running them sample in different ways, you inevitably get difference. Most numbers I see regarding Americans who believe God created man in his current state is usually around the neighborhood of 50%. The results from Gallup are probably better, since their polling techniques are vastly more refined, but that doesn't really invalidate the CBS poll as you so charge.

So you are still more or less wrong.

Believe what you want to believe man. There's still no information about how that sample was put together. If you want to believe that 51% is a realistic number go right ahead. It isn't, but honestly your attitude is repulsive, which might explain why you got into statistics in the first place and I don't feel going into why cbs would have interest in spinning it.

I'm sorry that I called into question something you have spent so much time learning. Its nothing to take personal, I'm not assaulting "statistics" with this thread whatever you might believe, simply that stating that 51% not a realistic number.

 

[Stall]

Believe what you want to believe man. There's still no information about how that sample was put together. If you want to believe that 51% is a realistic number go right ahead. It isn't, but honestly your attitude is repulsive, which might explain why you got into statistics in the first place and I don't feel going into why cbs would have interest in spinning it.

I'm sorry that I called into question something you have spent so much time learning. Its nothing to take personal, I'm not assaulting "statistics" with this thread whatever you might believe, simply that stating that 51% not a realistic number.

They aren't going to give you a run-by-run of their sampling techniques. Their statisticians worked hard to develop them, so they aren't going to give it away. They keep it vague enough. And there really is no evidence of spin. They told you how the question was asked and showed you the direct frequencies of each option they gave the participants. I'm not saying spin doesn't exist, but there doesn't appear to be any here.

And you didn't call Statistics "into question". You outright butchered and misunderstood the field. There's a severe and massive difference between calling something reasonably into question and outright failing to understand fundamentals within that field. You happened to do the latter. It's ironic that you are "mythbusting" here, when in reality, you fail to grasp what it is you are attempting to "bust".

And 51% might not be an accurate number, but by god 40% is. That 40% comes from one of the single most respected and skilled pollster groups in the nation. That 40% IS a realistic number. Saying so otherwise would be approaching outright denial or trolling. Honestly now... is 40% of Americans believing God created humans in their current state really that much better than 51% of them believing that?

Hell man, the percentage of people who think humans evolved without the aid of god is practically identical in both the CBS and Gallup poll. You kind of ignored that part, didn't you?

So no, it is not a myth that there is widespread denial regarding evolution in America. You cannot "bust" it since it is more or less fact.