Johnny Novgorod said:
I think their last bastion is going to be handheld gaming, and in the long, long run they end up losing to mobile phones.
Not at all. Mobile gaming is 75% of the app store's sales, but then again apps that people pay for are usually around a buck, a Tell Tale season is 20 times that. Even freemium games tend to grab about 10-20 from people while several articles and podcasts in the last few years talk about how "whales" are how most mobile games maintain their revenue stream.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/mobile-game-makers-try-to-catch-more-whales-who-pay-for-free-games-1431306115
It's a big market on the app store but as we've seen at Apple's own WWDC this year, the app store is a fucking mess. They're working on cleaning it up (at least the search function) but it's still a mess and more and more devs are leaving.
It's a different generation than the one we grew up in. Kids today get grounded from their iPhones and iPads, not their 3DS.
Rovio was arguably the most impressive mobile game company in the world and today they recording operating losses.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/rovio-records-operating-loss-over-angry-birds-movie-1459956527
The mobile market bubble is bursting, and like the rest of the games industry lately, the big push now is back to core gamers, not casual.
Either way, I still think they're apples and oranges even though I would have said the same thing (that Nintendo will eventually lose the handheld market) like 5 years ago when the mobile market hadn't hit a ceiling yet.