Nintendo's Stock Price Drops Over Six Percent After the Switch Announcement

[AzrealMaximillion]

This is the issue. Nintendo has produced a product as a "solution" to a problem that was solved half a decade ago. Had the Switch come out five years ago it could have been a runaway success. But nowadays, consoles, handhelds, PCs, smartphones, and tablets are ubiquitous. They're everywhere, and most people have at least two of those devices. Yet here we have Nintendo announcing a device that allows us to 'game at home and on the go!' Uh, thanks Nintendo, but I already do that. I've been doing it for years. So has everyone else.

It's classic Modern Nintendo. Too little, too late. They're forever lagging behind the rest of the industry.

This is what happens when you become complacent, turn inwards, and assume everyone else is playing catch-up to you. Eventually they catch you, then surpass you.

Nintendo has been walking the line of repeating Sega's console mistake so much that I feel this may be their "Sega CD". They've been lagging behind the industry since the N64 vs the PS1. The Wii won Gen 6 in terms of sales (not money made) and Nintendo fans went "Nintendo is unstoppable" even though that's when they lost the majority of their consistent 3rd party support. Every Nintendo home console barring the Wii had sold less than its predecessor.

Region locking and locking digital sales to the device you buy them on is also pretty anti-consumer as well and in 2016 it should not be accepted.

 

[Vigormortis]

This is the issue. Nintendo has produced a product as a "solution" to a problem that was solved half a decade ago. Had the Switch come out five years ago it could have been a runaway success. But nowadays, consoles, handhelds, PCs, smartphones, and tablets are ubiquitous. They're everywhere, and most people have at least two of those devices. Yet here we have Nintendo announcing a device that allows us to 'game at home and on the go!' Uh, thanks Nintendo, but I already do that. I've been doing it for years. So has everyone else.

It's classic Modern Nintendo. Too little, too late. They're forever lagging behind the rest of the industry.

This is what happens when you become complacent, turn inwards, and assume everyone else is playing catch-up to you. Eventually they catch you, then surpass you.

Nintendo has been walking the line of repeating Sega's console mistake so much that I feel this may be their "Sega CD". They've been lagging behind the industry since the N64 vs the PS1. The Wii won Gen 6 in terms of sales (not money made) and Nintendo fans went "Nintendo is unstoppable" even though that's when they lost the majority of their consistent 3rd party support. Every Nintendo home console barring the Wii had sold less than its predecessor.

Region locking and locking digital sales to the device you buy them on is also pretty anti-consumer as well and in 2016 it should not be accepted.

And to be honest, it's an issue the vast majority of the Japanese video game industry has. So many developers and publishers became complacent, convinced of their 'inherent superiority' over the other video game makers because of their runaway successes in the 80s and 90s. But the rest of the world, the rest of the industry, moved on and far ahead. Now it's the Western and other Asian game developers who've become the market leaders, the trend setters, the innovators, with the Japanese industry playing catch-up. Even Sony, who still has their head in the game, is slow to adapt.

The Old Guard is holding their industry back, and that includes the heads at Nintendo.

 

[Elvis Starburst]

I think the idea is cool, but one they will almost 100% not deliver on. Skyrim and 2K on a handheld at a resolution greater than 600p at at least 30 FPS? Bullshit. If it is revealed that those two games won't actually be coming to the Switch...

Considering how easy it is to give a 7" tablet 1080p, while Nintendo is using a custom made Nvidia system that is meant to use some of the latest in GPU tech, I say calling bullshit before even seeing the thing's specs or watching it work is a bit short sighted.

After the past few launch failures, and especially after the Wii U problem, I don't think Nintendo is THAT pants of head retarded. They're a business like any other. Their gimmicks only worked some of the times before, but now they seem to have dialed things back. While the gimmick is about bringing the system anywhere, at least the gimmick doesn't require you to waggle a remote or keep your eyes on two screens. It's all about bringing AAA gaming with you. Let's just hope it works well.

I'm cautious, but optimistic. I know I'll get one, I bought a Wii U and don't really regret it. Hopefully Nintendo and 3rd parties can deliver better this time

 

[Callate]

The fact is that the stock price dropped, and as analysts they need to explain it. It's not like they can say, "The Nintendo Switch looks amazing, I have no idea why the stock dropped."

Yes, but there's a pretty good chance that some of them, at least in part, are the reason the stock dropped. They don't just analyze what stock is already doing, but make recommendations to investors based on information. And it's quite likely that they're justifying the actions of those investors they advised as much as providing rationalization for what has happened.

I grant my view of analysts of this sort in general is pretty sour; I read too much from people like Pachter that reads like the worst apologism of the "well, games are a business, making money is their primary motivation" crowd- a philosophy that puts commerce over art and community and in the process of sabotaging the latter for short-term gain ends up destroying the former.

 

[Pinky's Brain]

Considering how easy it is to give a 7" tablet 1080p, while Nintendo is using a custom made Nvidia system that is meant to use some of the latest in GPU tech

The latest mobile tech.

 

[Elvis Starburst]

Considering how easy it is to give a 7" tablet 1080p, while Nintendo is using a custom made Nvidia system that is meant to use some of the latest in GPU tech

The latest mobile tech.

"Nintendo Switch is powered by the performance of the custom Tegra processor. The high-efficiency scalable processor includes an NVIDIA GPU based on the same architecture as the world's top-performing GeForce gaming graphics cards." I know what I said~ [https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2016/10/20/nintendo-switch/]

 

[Zulnam]

Actually, as an avid "play in bed" kinda guy, this interests me. Not enough to pre-order or anything stupid like that, but it might be nice.

 

[Lunar Templar]

I got 20 that says these guys are really only talking about Japan.

Cause why would the west matter am I right?

 

[Dragonbums]

The biggest mistake they made with the Switch so far was not making it backwards compatible for 3DS games. If Nintendo is trying to lure mobile gamers back to their quasi console then this was a huge misstep.

Who says that it isn't?

Official announcement that came out today.

http://nintendoeverything.com/nintendo-confirms-no-physical-backwards-compatibility-for-switch-no-comment-on-mobile-games/

Sorry to squash you rant like that but this was the one thing people defending the "NX" had as a point here and they lost it.

Err I don't see how those couple sentences qualify as a rant, but ok. I also wasn't aware there was a debate going on about the Switch since most of the comments I've seen have been positive, but I'm not involved either way.

Anyhow I was fully expecting it to not be hardware backward compatible with Wii U due to the discs but I'll admit I'm a little surprised they're not supporting 3ds games, again given Nintendo's history. That would suggest to me they're maybe planning a much more digital-centric approach, like maybe porting the old games to their store or something since I doubt they'd simply abandon all the old games. Quite interesting since it means they're doing things very differently this time around.

Well in regards to the 3DS some analysts have noted that the SD cartridge looks to be on the thicker side which means it isn't a 3DS cartridge. We don't even really know if this is actually going to compete with the 3DS itself.
This looks a lot more like a radical change on the console end. I feel like the 3DS has a few years left on it. The Switch isn't it's death knell.

 

[Programmed_For_Damage]

Perhaps their big reveal should have been less Mario and more Call of Duty.

I know it's hard to believe, and I have trouble accepting it myself, but people still really love Mario. I was over him about a decade ago, but there's no denying the fat plumber still moves units over in Japan.

They showed Skyrim to try and wow us Westerners.

 

[008Zulu_v1legacy]

I know it's hard to believe, and I have trouble accepting it myself, but people still really love Mario. I was over him about a decade ago, but there's no denying the fat plumber still moves units over in Japan.

They showed Skyrim to try and wow us Westerners.

There's a stigma with Mario; It's a kids game. As for Skyrim, Bethesda and Nintendo have both said that the title is unconfirmed.

 

[JohnnyDelRay]

They probably just went in the direction of least resistance, which after the not-stellar performance of the Wii U seemed to be the way of the 3DS. So portable console it is.

The only issue is, like the article mentions, that is already a kind of saturated market with mobile gaming. The console looks too much like a tablet, which everyone has already. But I still have faith, I would never replace my 3DS with games that you buy on the google appstore, too much shovelware in-app purchase crap that cannot even be considered games.

The idea of portable AAA gaming I believe still has the potential to make it big, but unlike the Wii, which relied on games that utilize the special controls in an innovative and fun way, I think the priority here should just be 3rd party. Get as many good games on it as possible, and you've got yourself a winner. Oh, and some options for charging on the go, definitely.

 

[MonsterCrit]

IIf this thing can't run a (by the time it releases) 6 year old game like Skyrim, it'll be DOA.

I don't think the hype will be last very long as they've announced no more official news til 2017, when the thing releases in March 2017. It'd be great for casual gamers or casual consumer if that audience wasn't already bored with Nintendo since the Wii. And further more, tablet games aren't that bad anymore.

That's just it. Hype builds, not from information, but speculation. Speculatioon thrives in an information vacum.
THis seems to be more a Gameboy replacement than anything else. The key selling features are the mobility, which, surprise is exactly the same use case as the 3ds. There's no way a market can sustain two mobile gaming devices.

Also that's going to hurt them third party wise. See if it does supplant the 3ds . It will increase the deveklopment cost for what would normally be 3ds games. While at the same time console 3rd party developers will have to consider how their huds and interfaces look on an ipad style screen. meaning, much smaller.

As for skyrim. There's the question of whether or not it will be the same version you'll be playing on the otgher consoles or just a scaled down version. in terms of resolution and gfx (plenty of ways to do that)

 

[AzrealMaximillion]

IIf this thing can't run a (by the time it releases) 6 year old game like Skyrim, it'll be DOA.

I don't think the hype will be last very long as they've announced no more official news til 2017, when the thing releases in March 2017. It'd be great for casual gamers or casual consumer if that audience wasn't already bored with Nintendo since the Wii. And further more, tablet games aren't that bad anymore.

That's just it. Hype builds, not from information, but speculation. Speculatioon thrives in an information vacum.
THis seems to be more a Gameboy replacement than anything else. The key selling features are the mobility, which, surprise is exactly the same use case as the 3ds. There's no way a market can sustain two mobile gaming devices.

Also that's going to hurt them third party wise. See if it does supplant the 3ds . It will increase the deveklopment cost for what would normally be 3ds games. While at the same time console 3rd party developers will have to consider how their huds and interfaces look on an ipad style screen. meaning, much smaller.

As for skyrim. There's the question of whether or not it will be the same version you'll be playing on the otgher consoles or just a scaled down version. in terms of resolution and gfx (plenty of ways to do that)

I agree with everything you said except for this "That's just it. Hype builds, not from information, but speculation. Speculation thrives in an information vacuum."

The lack of information on the Wii U hurt it bad. CNN though it was just a peripheral for the Wii when they first reported on it. The information vacuum on the Switch lasted well over a year when we were calling it the NX. I frankly think that the only people who are going to be hyped of for this are the die-hard Nintendo fans and even they don't purchase the home consoles like they used to. I asked a bunch of my friends who are Nintendo fans why they're excited about the Switch. I know this is anecdotal, but they're just happy to see Nintendo still coming up with different ideas. Thing is, only one of the dozen people I asked bought a Wii U and he only bought it for the upcoming Zelda game.

Some Nintendo fans are just happy to see Nintendo still making stuff because they like products based on nostalgia. If you no longer care about Mario, Metroid, Kirby, or Zelda like you used to, then the Switch isn't for you. I think Nintendo's going to find that out in March.

Every Nintendo console barring the Wii has sold millions less than its predecessor. If the Switch outsells the Wii U I'd be shocked, It has the some problem as the pre-made Steam Boxes. Who would buy this product when its "new features" have been done by others in a better fashion.

 

[mxfox408]

If you are going to buy any Nintendo stocks and shares, right now is the time to do it. I really plan on getting one of these systems as it does take innovation to whole new level. It seems to be a pretty damn nice system, and hopefully gets the support of all these triple A developers. I think the reason these naysayers are so skeptical is because the system is not the size of a mini PC. But in the modern era of gamings everything is slimming down. Hell Mobile phones have the computing power of consoles half a decade ago.

 

[Addendum_Forthcoming]

Or alternatively investors are worried that the company is taking on additional liabilities and initial debt burdens that might reduce company profits over this financial year and have a sneaking suspicion that a company might not pay out yields of the same volume (instead using the capital elsewhere) which has triggered a sell response in stock holders looking for short term gains.

The div yield on Nintendo stock went zero in the financial year of the release of the WiiU.

Nintendo is taking on additional risk. That is naturally going to create volatility in the stock. Given the number of people saying; "That's a shame ... the Switch looks promising..." Yeah, that is part of the symptoms of volatility. I would have sold up my stock too when news of the Switch came around. But there's a good chance I'd buy back in again by the time March actually comes along if I feel the launch product is going to lead to additional profits over the next FY.

 

[C14N]

This is the issue. Nintendo has produced a product as a "solution" to a problem that was solved half a decade ago. Had the Switch come out five years ago it could have been a runaway success. But nowadays, consoles, handhelds, PCs, smartphones, and tablets are ubiquitous. They're everywhere, and most people have at least two of those devices. Yet here we have Nintendo announcing a device that allows us to 'game at home and on the go!' Uh, thanks Nintendo, but I already do that. I've been doing it for years. So has everyone else.

It's classic Modern Nintendo. Too little, too late. They're forever lagging behind the rest of the industry.

I think this is kind of missing a pretty big point here. Yeah, I can play some games on my phone and tablet, but I don't. They're all pretty much flash games. Puzzle games, endless runners, pay-to-win building games, simple little things like that. An Android or iOS tablet's games are not in any way comparable to the kind of games I get on Steam or on a console. There's some fairly clever ones, but there's no Super Mario Galaxy or Mass Effect or Metal Gear Solid on there (they're not even really on par with the games I used to play on DS), and they're all incredibly limited by needing crappy touch-screen input that gets in the way of the action. On top of that, I just never play games on my phone because I need to use that for other things and if I spend 40 minutes playing even some basic 2D sprite game, I've lost a third of my battery for the day. I need that battery for other things. If I use up my game console's battery then it doesn't matter, I'll just stop playing games.

If this thing gives me a dedicated device where I can play actual, real console games on my commute without all of the many limitations of mobile devices, then that's huge. I don't care if it has to tone it down to 720p and 30fps to do it, because it's operating in a completely different league to Templerun or Cut the Rope or whatever. Am I saying every kid with an iPad is going to swap it for this? No. But there's a reason for people to buy it in the same way there's a reason people still pay to watch movies instead of watching Youtube videos all day for free.

 

[Poetic Nova]

Who's gonna buy this? I'll tell you who: people who want to go to a basketball court with all their friends and then play basketball videogames! That and all the people out there who take their dogs out for a walk at 3am with no intention of going home until 6am. :^)

Don't forget the key demographic of people who like to party outdoors around a 5" screen.

A.K.A. the people who seem to want running into eyestrain.