Nothing is ever truly random.

[Inverse Skies]

This discussion came up today at uni over coffee, and I thought it was really interesting. We were talking about how no probability is ever a truly random event, there will always be some sort of bias involved.

Think about it, rolling a dice has a 1 in 6 chance of any number coming up, but that's actually not true. Due to imperfections in the dice surface there will always be a slightly higher chance of one side or sides coming up more than others. It doesn't matter how minuscule the chance is, it is still there and that makes it a imperfect random event.

The same can even be said of flipping a coin (imperfections in the coin will lead to one side being favored) or even computer generated random numbers - the computer has to draw on calculations to generate those 'random' numbers and this leads to bias, no matter how small.

I thought the whole concept to be very interesting, as it leads to one wondering just what the concept of 'luck' is because the minuscule differences in probabilities changes the outcome in ways never before predicted. It made for good talk over coffee anyway.

Aside: If anyone knows why my avatar suddenly decided to turn on its side can they please PM me how to fix it? Even better please PM me on how to change the stupid thing because I'm having trouble. Please don't post a reply in this thread, this is a discussion thread about the non-randomness of events. Thanks!

 

[BloodyOne]

I fail to understand your logic, as the Flying Spaghetti Monster guides us all with his Noodly Appendages.

 

[Selvalros]

I registered just to respond to this post. This is exactly why I have believed in a causally deterministic reality for a number of years. Nothing is ever random. There is always something that influences another in order to guide its path. Whether it be a slight breeze as you flip a coin or and imperfection in the die, as you said, nothing is ever truly random.

If you take this concept and apply it to your entire life, realize that everything that has ever happened to you or anything that you have ever done you did because of influencing factors outside of your control. You will realize that there is no such thing as "free will" in the way that we understand it.

Check it out. [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_VxQuPBX1_U]

 

[teisjm]

If you we're extremely superhumanly accurate, you could prolly roll a dice to land on what you want, because you could basicly calculate how it would roll dependant on the force u rolled it with, the way it was turning when you released it, and the distance to the surface and the surfaces texture.

I guess it's easier when flipping a coin, seeing as it's "just" watching which side is up all the time

 

[sisterjinx]

Everything Happens for a Reason
Been my motto for a long long time.

 

[Rensenhito]

You're absolutely right, no event is ever truly random. I love how All the King's Men put it: think of every action anyone has ever taken as a web. You touch one part of the web, and the rest of it moves. Maybe it's just a slight movement, but it's a movement nonetheless.
When something happens to you, it happens purely due to aftereffects from another action taken by either you or someone else. There is no chance.

 

[000Ronald]

You've got it all wrong.

Everything is random.

Just because something should happen, just because you thing it's going to happen, doesn't mean it's going to happen. Everything around you is the result of something beyond your control.

If everything you are capable of perciving is caused by things beyond your control, then by definition, it must be random.

...or is it?

Apologies if you think I'm being serious. Cookie to anyone who can point out the giant gaping flaw in my logic, which is also a flaw in the OP's logic.

 

[Jackson - Deathclaw]

I registered just to respond to this post. This is exactly why I have believed in a causally deterministic reality for a number of years. Nothing is ever random. There is always something that influences another in order to guide its path. Whether it be a slight breeze as you flip a coin or and imperfection in the die, as you said, nothing is ever truly random.

If you take this concept and apply it to your entire life, realize that everything that has ever happened to you or anything that you have ever done you did because of influencing factors outside of your control. You will realize that there is no such thing as "free will" in the way that we understand it.

Check it out. [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_VxQuPBX1_U]

i'm having a bit of trouble following your logic
you say that just because die and coins aren't completely perfect that there is no free will
thats a bit of a leap
and basically your stating that everything you do is influenced by others outside of your control
i feel sorry for someone that truly accepts everything that happens to them as some form of fate
so would you say that you believe everything has a purpose and is leading to some greater event
if not then your point should be that something random has occured
that the bias has been created in a random way by a random event

 

[NeutralDrow]

I fail to understand your definition of "random."

Think about it, rolling a dice has a 1 in 6 chance of any number coming up, but that's actually not true. Due to imperfections in the dice surface there will always be a slightly higher chance of one side or sides coming up more than others. It doesn't matter how minuscule the chance is, it is still there and that makes it a imperfect random event.

Especially with regards to this. You seem to be defining "random" as "any number of possible occurrences that have an equal chance of happening." To which I want to say (as politely as I can) "Well, duh." But that's not what random means; randomness results from an occurrence that isn't an absolute certainty.

To use your example, the fact that you have a slightly higher chance of rolling a six than a one on a die doesn't mean the outcome of a die roll isn't random, it means that without tampering, you have a slightly higher random chance of getting a six.

 

[crepesack]

I thoroughly believe all things are random. Although they may be some outer force affecting some action, that outer force may be applied randomly, Random events through chaos theory will inevitably change other random events in the future. One random change in the past leads to higher probabilities of certain results in future random events occurring randomly. In theory if you went back to the beginning everything was random. I'll use your example.

View a dice in a vacuum falling, it's about to hit a surface.
The dice itself is perfect it lands on 1, 1/6th of the time.

Now view a different dice, also in a vacuum, this one has a randomly chipped face causing it to fall on 2 2/6 of the time, it falls on 2. However the random chipped could have just as likely have been on any other of the numbers.

Finally view a vacuum. Two dice we just dropped are on the floor of the vacuum. one on 1 and one on 2. We drop a perfect third die, from a random position, a random height and with a random face facing upwards, at the time of the drop. By your logic when we randomly drop a die and it just happens to fall on a dice, changing the probable outcome. The result is biased. However that is not the case. It could have just as likely hit somewhere else lending to a 1/6 result.

In conclusion. Acts of randomness from the beginning, determine the probability of other acts of randomness in the future.

True bias comes from intelligent intervention. Lets say i have a magician skilled in sleight of hand, that carefully palms the dice. Forcing them to land more on a certain number (i know it can be done). Also some theorize that the act of believing something will happen more likely will inevitably change the result of a test as is true with all science, and widely held as its greatest flaw. As the act of observing will undoubtedly change the result. But that's what Schrodinger's cat is for right?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observer_effect_(physics)

 

[Buffoon]

I don't think humanity has reached a deep enough understanding of quantum mechanics to answer this question with any certainty. You're free to speculate, of course, but I don't think that this is a question that you're going to answer just by philosophising.

 

[McClaud]

If you take this concept and apply it to your entire life, realize that everything that has ever happened to you or anything that you have ever done you did because of influencing factors outside of your control. You will realize that there is no such thing as "free will" in the way that we understand it. [/url]

So let me get this straight -

If an event that was set into motion thousands of years ago by influencing factors outside of my control, and I chose to resist it and succeed, I haven't exercised free will?

Thanks. That makes so much sense. {/sarcasm}

 

[I_LIKE_CAKE]

In regards to quantum mechanics, if you really want your brain to hurt, read up on entanglement, it will blow your mind.

EDIT:
Oops, forgot to post something on topic, ummmm....

Well, there is a parallel to Determinism, where there is no free will, and everything can be explained by the prior states of the universe plus natural laws. While this is interesting to think about, I find the world in which there is no chance, where everything that has happened and everything that is ever going to happen was decided at the moment of the Big Bang too depressing for words. Worrying about the existence of free will is, in the end, pointless. Live like you are in control of your life and everything will be okay

 

[Booze Zombie]

Randomness is certain in it's unpredictability.

 

[Lukirre]

I think an act can be considered random depending on what perspective you look at it from.

Obviously, if you look at it from the big scheme of things, it's not a random event as it is bound to happen eventually. Especially so if you use your analogy with a six-sided dice. It's not random, it's just not in a pre-set order.

However, if you look at it from the perspective of the person rolling said dice, then the even itself is random. Considering that it's not in any particular order, it's up to "chance" (for lack of a better term)in regards to what the roll is.

It's all a matter of perspective. Now, since I would be the one rolling said dice, then yes, I do believe in random events occurring.

 

[crepesack]

In regards to quantum mechanics, if you really want your brain to hurt, read up on entanglement, it will blow your mind.

In regards to entanglement, in theory since all matter came from a single point all particles are entangled, rendering my realist theories implausible. Which they are unless each one was actually in a different universe but i myself don't have that much understanding of quantum mechanics.

 

[Neonbob]

One big hole in that idea: have you ever had a long conversation with a woman? They're the world's response to men with ADD. "You think you're random? Ha! Meet woman."
In the case of the dice rolling, while it may not be completely random when rolled, but what if a player decides not to roll the dice, eats it, runs in seven consecutive circles, sings "Thriller," kicks your cat, and runs away? If they had done that before I made up that sentence, that would have to be considered random.

 

[Selvalros]

I registered just to respond to this post. This is exactly why I have believed in a causally deterministic reality for a number of years. Nothing is ever random. There is always something that influences another in order to guide its path. Whether it be a slight breeze as you flip a coin or and imperfection in the die, as you said, nothing is ever truly random.

If you take this concept and apply it to your entire life, realize that everything that has ever happened to you or anything that you have ever done you did because of influencing factors outside of your control. You will realize that there is no such thing as "free will" in the way that we understand it.

Check it out. [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_VxQuPBX1_U]

i'm having a bit of trouble following your logic
you say that just because die and coins aren't completely perfect that there is no free will
thats a bit of a leap
and basically your stating that everything you do is influenced by others outside of your control
i feel sorry for someone that truly accepts everything that happens to them as some form of fate
so would you say that you believe everything has a purpose and is leading to some greater event
if not then your point should be that something random has occured
that the bias has been created in a random way by a random event

No, you misunderstood what I was saying and that is my fault for thinking that I could explain it in such a short post. I wasn't implying that a coin and human action are the same thing, they aren't, but the basic principle applies. There is always a reason for our actions and we make decisions based on all events past.

We are all products of past events, yes? No one can truthfully say that the life that they have lived has had no influence on who they are and how they act. I will make the assumption that you are not a hermit living in the mountains and that you interact with people on a day to day basis. Now, take this into consideration; since everything that everyone does is for a reason, and we have already agreed that everyone is a product of their lives past events, and that these past events have influenced their personality, the way they act and react, and how they make they make decisions, than all of our actions are already pre-governed by causality. How we interact to other people that we have never met before is based on how we have learned to interact with people when we we younger. If we happen to be feeling a certain way on a particular day than that feeling has a cause, whether or not we realize it or not. Perhaps we slept particularly well that night or we had a particularly good outing with our friends at the club and we decided not to drink too much so we are not hung over. All these decisions that we have made, these decisions that are apparently free, are made for a reason and these reasons are formulated via our past decisions, our past experiences, and mitigating factors that we may not even be aware of on the conscious level.

Once you add subconscious and genetic influences into the equation our supposed free will is starting to look to be less and less free. Now, if you get the urge to prove me wrong and decide to do something entirely random just to spite me than you will just be proving me right because you are still doing something random for a reason, and if I hadn't had this conversation with you than you very well may not have decided to do that random thing. Thus, nothing is random. Of course I am ignoring the "original cause" or mover in the universe, which we have no idea what it is, but it is the only thing that has the potential of being truly random.

I personally don't believe that our lives are leading anywhere, or at least not in the sense that there is a fundamental purpose to human existence. However, I do believe that we are all influenced by the inescapable nature of the past and that that past determines our fate. It is all a matter of causality, no god or super being required, it only requires an original movement, perhaps the big bang or perhaps something else. I propose that that was the only truly random incident to ever happen, but then again, I don't know that either.

 

[Noamuth]

So, what if you roll a 20?

 

[Minimike3636]

Let's talk about something that has no definite outcomes, like dice or coins...

Let's say you're talking to someone, and for now reason, they decide to say "Elliptical Mangos." What if you were having a discussion about the weather? It's random in the fact that any possible word or phrase fathomable could have been said, and only few would pertain to the subject matter. And don;t say there was some miniscule sort of "chance" that he would say that, because there is an infinite number of statements that could be said. Since there are no definite numbers included in said situation, the response is purely random.