Took me forever to actually post a response to your post, but better late than never.
The reason I asked for your predictions earlier was due to my own knowledge of my lack of knowledge regarding how things are in the US and how people are thinking about it, so your doubt of non-Americans being able to understand and predict how things would turn out was in my opinion possibly grounded in some truth. I will however say that nobody knows everything so despite my acknowledged limited perspective I will respond with my thoughts to your predictions.
tstorm823 said:
Easy 1)Joe Biden is not going to win the nomination.
Yeah, no real objections here. Even if I knew nothing of Biden the fact of the matter is that there are a lot of Democratic nominees. Some of them will have to drop out. More specifically of Biden: Hillary Clinton tried to become president as a previous cabinet member with media presence stretching back and failed; it makes sense that background is not as valued.
tstorm823 said:
Easy 2)Elizabeth Warren takes down Bernie Sanders to win the nomination.
From what I've seen she seem to attract the attention of people that went for Bernie in the previous Democratic primary, so sure, I can see that happening.
tstorm823 said:
Easy 3)Democrats move for impeachment in the lead up to the election.
*scratches forehead* What was the title of this thread again?
tstorm823 said:
Easy 3)(cont.) On the off-chance Trump is ousted, they win big. But on the much more likely chance the Senate doesn't remove Trump, they use the "failed attempt" as a rallying cry to push voter turnout expecting a win that way.
Ah, the prediction is what will happen with the impeachment. Yeah you're repeating what I've heard elsewhere regarding if impeachment attempts are meaningful, so I cannot really object. And the Democrats would only move for impeachment if they either thought the cause was ground for impeachment or if it provided enough the appearance thereof for them to try to impeach, so it's only natural for them to campaign that the sitting president ought to be impeached.
tstorm823 said:
Bold Prediction List (if I'm right about these, I expect you all to make me famous):
*scratches forehead again* Does that mean you actually believe these predictions? Or what do you mean?
tstorm823 said:
Bold 2)Partisan demographics shift slightly. The male/female divide between Democrats and Republicans widens slightly, but the racial divide slightly weakens as specifically young men in racial minorities vote more for Trump than 2016. This results in a slight boon for Trump when all combined.
I honestly don't think this is a long-shot. If we accept that Warren secures the nomination, and the US population reminds as dug-in in their current opinions on election day as when Trump was elected, then there probably will only be slight differences in how people vote. And sexism is a thing, so if one party is represented by a woman and the other by a man then those for whom that is important, however slightly, will make some difference. With that in mind, Warren gaining more female votes and Trump gaining more male votes makes sense. And people voting more along gender lines than along "race" lines I don't see as improbable.
tstorm823 said:
Bold 1) National Popular Vote Interstate makes the election a democratic one.
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Bold 3) National Popular Vote Interstate leads to victory for Trump, who'd otherwise lose.
Your post is the first time I've ever heard of the National Popular Vote Interstate. For this reason I think this will not happen. If it was likely to happen more people would've talked about it.
Since predictions are fun, even if you look back at it in a year and can only laugh at your own stupidity of the time, I'm gonna make my own prediction:
Trump will, if elected for a second term, be impeached. He has enough skeletons in the closet that one of them ought to be grounds enough for impeachment, and I don't think he's clever enough to have them all covered up. And one of them ought to be either compromising enough that Republicans would lose all the face if they did not move for impeachment or not be "friendly fire" enough that any leading Republican would get caught in the crossfire. My read is that the Republicans do not like Trump since he's an outsider that usurped the nomination, and he hardly is presidential. If they can secure a way to get rid of him without it reflecting badly on the GOP and therefore hurt their chances to get reelected they'll do it.