Piracy Figures: 90%? Really?

[Delusibeta]

Wolfire Games (probably best known right now for running the Humble Indie Bundle [http://www.wolfire.com/humble]) has made an interesting blog post. [http://blog.wolfire.com/2010/05/Another-view-of-game-piracy] Basically, they're poking at the claims of piracy rates. Sample quotes, on PC game piracy, is below:

Does this also apply to PC (Windows/Mac/Linux) gamers? Many PC game developers find that about 90% of their users are running pirated copies -- does this mean that piracy is killing PC games? Let's try our alternative explanation, and see if these statistics are possible even if only 20% of worldwide PC gamers are pirates. The average PC gamer worldwide only buys about three games a year, and plays them for a long time [4] [http://www.1up.com/do/blogEntry?publicUserId=5762658&bId=8239342]. I buy many more than that, and you probably do too, but again, we are not average gamers! On the other hand, game pirates might download a new game every few days, for a total of about 125 games a year. Given these numbers, games would see 90% piracy rates even though only 20% of gamers are pirates.

Are these numbers accurate? The NPD recently conducted an anonymous survey showing that only 4% of PC gamers in the US admit to pirating games [5] [http://edge-online.com/news/npd-four-per-cent-of-us-gamers-admit-to-piracy], a number that is comparable to XBox 360 piracy statistics [6] [http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/8354166.stm] . However, since piracy is inversely proportionate to per-capita GDP, we can expect piracy rates to increase dramatically in places like Russia, China and India, driving up the world-wide average. Let's say to 20%.

This means that if all pirates would otherwise buy as many games as the average consumer, then game developers would be losing 20% of their revenue to piracy.

They go on to question the arguement that if piracy stopped the PC developers would see any sort of increase in sales and suggests a reason for disappointing sales: crappy ports. Evidence: Blizzard. Oh, and they poke a big hole in the claims for iPhone piracy rates.

Read the full post [http://blog.wolfire.com/2010/05/Another-view-of-game-piracy] and discuss.

 

[veloper]

Are these numbers accurate? The NPD recently conducted an anonymous survey showing that only 4% of PC gamers in the US admit to pirating games [5] [http://edge-online.com/news/npd-four-per-cent-of-us-gamers-admit-to-piracy], a number that is comparable to XBox 360 piracy statistics [6] [http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/8354166.stm] . However, since piracy is inversely proportionate to per-capita GDP, we can expect piracy rates to increase dramatically in places like Russia, China and India, driving up the world-wide average. Let's say to 20%.

Not exactly hard science this.

 

[FinalDream]

Piracy figures are inaccurate, many who download the game might have never intended to buy the game in the first place.

 

[SteinFaust]

to quote Coaxke from FSR, "they're pullin' fake dollar losses straight out of the sky".

 

[dmase]

Interesting, but idt the pirates are not necessarily to blame in countries outside the US, Canada, England, and other western nations. Look at Australia, how long after the original release do they get games, from what Yahtzee says its a couple of months at least.

A lot of games dont even reach countries and you need to import an untranslated version that is a lot more expensive because of shipping. Some governments censor games that are released or don't let them be released at all.

 

[Gindil]

Ya know, someone linked to this and I just want to thank them. Regardless Piracy is BS [http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2008/10/dodgy-digits-behind-the-war-on-piracy.ars] and most numbers are bogus [http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2010/04/us-government-finally-admits-most-piracy-estimates-are-bogus.ars]

Read, enlighten, enjoy.

 

[Good morning blues]

This is pretty far from conclusive, which is ultimately the problem with all piracy figures.

 

[Jandau]

The post basically states a simple fact that's know to every person with a functioning brain - not every pirated copy is a lost sale. Saying there is a 90% piracy rate doesn't mean that if piracy were to disappear you'd suddenly see sales on the PC increase 10 times...

Also, piracy rates ARE dependant on the region. In my country Piracy rates are pretty high, but then again, the average salary is around $700-$800 and the average new game release goes for $60-$70, so try convincing the average consumer to drop around 10% of his monthly income on a single game... And we're not nearly as bad off as some of the other countries in the region, not to mention East Europe and the slummier parts of Asia.

Basically, anti-Piracy fights are based on numbers pulled out of the arse and then interpreted in very... shall we say "creative" ways...

 

[Marter]

Companies still take money off of the games, or there wouldn't be any more PC games. The piracy isn't hurting that much.

 

[Aeshi]

How is Blizzard an example of crappy ports?

 

[Yureina]

Horse shit. These guys are just upset that their games aren't making millions of dollars.

Pretty much, though I still make a point of buying games from companies I like (Bethesda, Bioware, Creative Assembly, etc.), if only to give them my support.

 

[Altorin]

How is Blizzard an example of crappy ports?

he's referring specifically to Assassin's Creed 2.

 

[Aeshi]

But I though Assassin's Creed was made by Ubisoft?

 

[Oktanas]

One game in my country usualy cost over $120 that's double.
Why do they even expect people will buy that game when in america that game only costs $60???

If you want to buy entire colection of sims 2 you have to spent over $1.2k alot of people don't earn that much in a month.

 

[Altorin]

But I though Assassin's Creed was made by Ubisoft?

he didn't say it wasn't. He's not very good at effectively writing, and you don't seem to be very good at effectively reading

 

[Aeshi]

for disappointing sales: crappy ports. Evidence: Blizzard.

Bolded the part where he says Blizzard is an example of crappy ports.

 

[Rathy]

for disappointing sales: crappy ports. Evidence: Blizzard.

Bolded the part where he says Blizzard is an example of crappy ports.

Well, for anyone that ever played Starcraft on the N64...

But really, thses things are always blown out of proportion. its really just becoming a scare tactic aimed at PC gamers at this point, as people still continue to release games DRM free and make money, and to release games with convoluted DRM that convinces people to not buy the game, which gets cracked in the end anyway. Yet the companies keep releasing these games, when apparently they 'only sell 10%' of their potential.

 

[Floppertje]

nonsense. 1. how do they even measure it? 2. what defenition of 'gamer' do they use? the one where gamer means anyone who spends more than 3 hours a day playing videogames or the one where gamer includes CEO's who play a game of tetris when they've run out of secretary's to have affairs with? 3. how do they measure the connection between actual piracy and lost sales? 4. how do they measure the connection between GDP per capita and piracy? 5. when are they going to realize that they can whine about it until a zombie rises from the grave to shut them up, but it still won't stop piracy, so why bother whining at all?

this is NOT good science. I can't even really call it bad science, it's hardly science at all. it's just guessing and pulling numbers out of you ass...

 

[Altorin]

for disappointing sales: crappy ports. Evidence: Blizzard.

Bolded the part where he says Blizzard is an example of crappy ports.

that guy's quote wasn't part of the article though.

In the Article, they held blizzard up as a pinnacle of what good PC development can do

Blizzard is one of the most successful game developers in the world, and it develops exclusively for desktop computers. Why do they succeed where everyone else fails? They create games that are designed from the beginning to work well with the mouse and keyboard, and with all kinds of desktop hardware. If developers spent more time improving their PC gaming experience, and less time complaining about piracy, we might see more successful PC games.

edit: In other news, I really think people need to read the article, because you're all getting angry about something that's basically saying the same thing that you are - the industry is wrong about the harmful effects about piracy. And this is coming from someone IN THE INDUSTRY

it's a good thing.

The actual numbers he uses, yes, are pulled mostly from his ass, but his thesis is not.