[Politics] Treasury Bonds Inverting

Trunkage

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So this happened. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/2-year10-year-treasury-yield-curve-inverts-triggering-bond-market-recession-indicator-2019-08-14

Investors are moving from 10 year bonds to 2. This indicates that investors don't think the economy will do well in the long term. Data from the past seven recessions/depressions shows this can happen up to two years before it happens, but they all had this shift to short yield bonds.

Good times
 

Agema

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trunkage said:
So this happened. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/2-year10-year-treasury-yield-curve-inverts-triggering-bond-market-recession-indicator-2019-08-14

Investors are moving from 10 year bonds to 2. This indicates that investors don't think the economy will do well in the long term. Data from the past seven recessions/depressions shows this can happen up to two years before it happens, but they all had this shift to short yield bonds.

Good times
A ten-year bond tends to have higher interest rates because the 10-year yield is harder to predict thus riskier. If the two-year bond starts to have a higher interest rate, that conventionally means that the 2-year outlook is poor, not the long-term: i.e. high fears a recession is imminent, so the 10-year starts looking a better bet. There have been numerous other predictors of recession around 2020 that have been cropping up over the last 12 months.

Although more strictly, the two year bond more represents investors expecting interest rate cuts very soon. It's a predictor of recession because central banks often cut interest rates to stimulate economic activity, which they are likely to do in the face of a downturn. However, the interest rate cuts may of course work in terms of preventing recession or mitigating a downturn.

We might also note that Trump has also postponed some of the China tariffs: clearly there is political concern in the White House about an economic slowdown in the lead-up to the election.
 

Kwak

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A system that can crash the economies of the world despite NO ACTUAL CHANGE IN REAL WORLD RESOURCES, based solely on rumour and the lemming-like behaviour of an isolated class of people, is just, so wrong.
 

Trunkage

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IceForce said:
Is this another thing we can blame Trump for?
Sort of. China didn't have to fight back. I don't know why they would though. It's highly likely that China can outlast the US during a war. It can just point to the US starting this war and claim moral superiority China has also now done more than retaliate, making their own attacks on US economy.

This same process happened almost 90 years ago with the Smoot-Hawley tariffs. They were meant to protect American industry from global competition. All the tarrifs did was make a recession into a depression and made it more globalised and almost destroyed the US economy.

Edit: Most countries economies were no strong anyway, Trump is just making the recession happen quicker. Claiming it's all Trump is a misnomer,

Also, I thought we were blaming MSM anyway. They're always at fault.
 

CheetoDust_v1legacy

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trunkage said:
IceForce said:
Is this another thing we can blame Trump for?
Sort of. China didn't have to fight back. I don't know why they would though. It's highly likely that China can outlast the US during a war. It can just point to the US starting this war and claim moral superiority China has also now done more than retaliate, making their own attacks on US economy.

This same process happened almost 90 years ago with the Smoot-Hawley tariffs. They were meant to protect American industry from global competition. All the tarrifs did was make a recession into a depression and made it more globalised and almost destroyed the US economy.

Edit: Most countries economies were no strong anyway, Trump is just making the recession happen quicker. Claiming it's all Trump is a misnomer,

Also, I thought we were blaming MSM anyway. They're always at fault.
One thing we can all agree on is that despite the large number of conservative and centrist governments in power this will definitely be the fault of liberals.
 

Agema

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IceForce said:
Is this another thing we can blame Trump for?
Mostly not, I suspect. Downturns and recessions just happen, and the USA was about due one.

However, Trump will have aggravated problems in various ways with his trade wars, and his ill-considered tax cuts have left the USA less able to respond to downturns with government policy due to the national debt.

Postwar GDP growth was amazing: ~3.5-4% average per year, this mini economic golden age stopping dead in the oil crisis and 1970s stagflation. After that, economic growth dropped to about 2.5-3% a year on average. Since the financial crash, it's been more like 2-2.5%. Remember Trump claimed he could slash taxes and the economy would roar off into the distance with postwar-like rates. It seems to have caused nothing but a small bump up in 2018, which has apparently already faded.

In terms of national debt, tax receipts declined in 2018. This was, handily enough, covered up by the trade war, because the additional tariffs made up the difference. Nevertheless, the projection of US national debt (% GDP) makes for grim reading. The rationale of the tax cuts is that lower tax means more investment means more productivity growth, and the growth not only benefits everyone but increases tax revenues - old Reaganite Laffer curve bullshit that didn't work then. With the economy rapidly cooling, what it means is that revenues have decreased due to the tax cuts, and there's limited economic growth to power the theoretical revenue increase. Whereas the pre-Trump laws would have kept debt relatively stable at 80-85% GDP to 2024, the Trump tax cuts look likely to send it to ~100% GDP. If a recession drops in ~2020, it could be much worse than that.
 

Baffle

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CheetoDust said:
One thing we can all agree on is that despite the large number of conservative and centrist governments in power this will definitely be the fault of liberals.
Probably buying too many avocados so they can't afford houses, therefore slowing down the global property market and destroying the pensions people have worked all their lives for. We should increase the price of tertiary education, that'll teach them.
 

generals3

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Baffle2 said:
CheetoDust said:
One thing we can all agree on is that despite the large number of conservative and centrist governments in power this will definitely be the fault of liberals.
Probably buying too many avocados so they can't afford houses, therefore slowing down the global property market and destroying the pensions people have worked all their lives for. We should increase the price of tertiary education, that'll teach them.
And since avocados are often imported they are not even creating american jobs. Damn unpatriotic libruls!

On a more serious note an economic downturn had to be expected. The US economy has been expanding for quite some time now and the signs of a slowdown were showing for some time as well. The question is whether or not Trump or the next president will be able to properly handle it.
 

Agema

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generals3 said:
On a more serious note an economic downturn had to be expected. The US economy has been expanding for quite some time now and the signs of a slowdown were showing for some time as well. The question is whether or not Trump or the next president will be able to properly handle it.
First line will be the Fed. Interest rates are 2.5% IIRC which gives some monetary room for manoeuver.

I honestly don't think there's much they can do fiscally. Drop the trade war with China, but that has political costs as it will make the USA look weak. It could perhaps try to hasten the trade deal, but that's likely to mean giving China powerful leverage as it will know the USA is under pressure with a potential recession in election year. As per my previous post, borrowing on top of the USA's already high national debt looks painful.

Honestly, I think Trump has left the US government in a significantly weaker position to cope with a downturn. That's why he's raging at the Fed.
 

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Agema said:
I honestly don't think there's much they can do fiscally. Drop the trade war with China, but that has political costs as it will make the USA look weak. It could perhaps try to hasten the trade deal, but that's likely to mean giving China powerful leverage as it will know the USA is under pressure with a potential recession in election year. As per my previous post, borrowing on top of the USA's already high national debt looks painful.
Nonsense. We've got plenty of money. Why else do you think TheDonald wants us to go back to the Moon in 5 years, er...sorry, Mars by 2020 and buy Greenland at the same time?

https://www.space.com/us-astronauts-moon-return-by-2024.html
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/01/trump-mars-nasa-moon/581023/
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/15/us/politics/trump-greenland.html

Only a complete idiot would want to spend so lavishly while piling on debt.
 

generals3

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Agema said:
First line will be the Fed. Interest rates are 2.5% IIRC which gives some monetary room for manoeuver.

I honestly don't think there's much they can do fiscally. Drop the trade war with China, but that has political costs as it will make the USA look weak. It could perhaps try to hasten the trade deal, but that's likely to mean giving China powerful leverage as it will know the USA is under pressure with a potential recession in election year. As per my previous post, borrowing on top of the USA's already high national debt looks painful.

Honestly, I think Trump has left the US government in a significantly weaker position to cope with a downturn. That's why he's raging at the Fed.
Even so interest rates aren't that high at 2.5%, prior to the financial crisis they were at 5%. And the impact of interest rate policies can be somewhat limited as is shown in Europe where economies are sluggish despite negative interest rates.
What is indeed most troublesome is the lack of room remaining to enact expansive fiscal and spending policies. The already low taxes and high debt burden would make further expansive policies dangerous debt wise. It's going to be interesting to see what they can and will do to limit the probable downturn.

Dalisclock said:
Agema said:
I honestly don't think there's much they can do fiscally. Drop the trade war with China, but that has political costs as it will make the USA look weak. It could perhaps try to hasten the trade deal, but that's likely to mean giving China powerful leverage as it will know the USA is under pressure with a potential recession in election year. As per my previous post, borrowing on top of the USA's already high national debt looks painful.
Nonsense. We've got plenty of money. Why else do you think TheDonald wants us to go back to the Moon in 5 years, er...sorry, Mars by 2020 and buy Greenland at the same time?

Only a complete idiot would want to spend so lavishly while piling on debt.
We all know there is a great business solution to that, file bankruptcy and move on!
 

Agema

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generals3 said:
Even so interest rates aren't that high at 2.5%, prior to the financial crisis they were at 5%. And the impact of interest rate policies can be somewhat limited as is shown in Europe where economies are sluggish despite negative interest rates.
What is indeed most troublesome is the lack of room remaining to enact expansive fiscal and spending policies. The already low taxes and high debt burden would make further expansive policies dangerous debt wise. It's going to be interesting to see what they can and will do to limit the probable downturn.
I absolutely agree. 2.5% is very, very little to work with compared to what might normally be expected, but at least it's something. The UK has only managed to scrape back to 0.75% after the financial crash, following the weak recovery failure of "expansionary austerity" (ha ha). It's finally got the deficit under control at least (5 years late) so could theoretically splash a few tens of billions around - except that that will all be swallowed by dealing with Brexit. A non-Brexit downturn on top of that, with Europe weak and if the USA stutters...

It's weird to have lived so long with such a demoralising decade (in ways it's been the worst since the 1820s), and to be staring a high risk of another decade of the same.

I can't help but notice Facebook has started sending me lots of adverts saying someone with my education would be very well appreciated in Canada. It's the sharks circling, anticipating the decline and looking to snap up what they can. And even as the sharks openly bare their teeth, the UK's still full of fuckwits insulated from the pain by their pensions and family wealth who think some patriotic spirit is going to make the country great again.
 

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Kwak said:
A system that can crash the economies of the world despite NO ACTUAL CHANGE IN REAL WORLD RESOURCES, based solely on rumour and the lemming-like behaviour of an isolated class of people, is just, so wrong.
Last Saturday during my game night, that Rogan interview with Bernie came up. The youngest member of the gaming group, 22-23 (fuck me if I remember), asked what the big deal was about high-frequency algorithmic trading. I unironically explained it to him by comparing it to Richard Pryor's big scheme in Superman 3. That's probably the best way I can express my thoughts on how fucked we all are. Our neck's been in the guillotine since TARP, ARRA, and Dodd-Frank amounted to a nice big payday and green flag to the financial sector to burn everything to the ground.
 

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Eacaraxe said:
Kwak said:
A system that can crash the economies of the world despite NO ACTUAL CHANGE IN REAL WORLD RESOURCES, based solely on rumour and the lemming-like behaviour of an isolated class of people, is just, so wrong.
Last Saturday during my game night, that Rogan interview with Bernie came up. The youngest member of the gaming group, 22-23 (fuck me if I remember), asked what the big deal was about high-frequency algorithmic trading. I unironically explained it to him by comparing it to Richard Pryor's big scheme in Superman 3. That's probably the best way I can express my thoughts on how fucked we all are. Our neck's been in the guillotine since TARP, ARRA, and Dodd-Frank amounted to a nice big payday and green flag to the financial sector to burn everything to the ground.
Some people have been pointing to issue like this since Lockheed was bailed out in the seventies. Other American banks/ investor groups have been bailed out between now and then but not on the scale of the GFC. They also bailed out a bunch of Mexican banks after poor investments by them, because Americans had a bunch of money tied up in them in '95 (I think). They was a whole heap of bailing out during Savings and Loans crisis and dotcom bust. The noose has been there for a long time. It's been slowly pulled tight.

Some of the worst things from the GFC was: there were hundreds of thousands who committed fraud on mortgage forms (as asked by mortgage brokers). NO one went to jail. The credit agencies were paid off to give higher results on mortgages. No one went to jail. FDIC is meant to protect a certain proportion of your savings, so you didn't go bankrupt immediately during the crisis. But Bush and Obama paid everyone's deposits, including those who made the bad investments. The bailout also made sure that most bad debt was paid out at 100 cents in the dollar. No haircuts. And no cuts to boards, who made this mess. All paid by the tax payer.
 

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trunkage said:
Some people have been pointing to issue like this since Lockheed was bailed out in the seventies. Other American banks/ investor groups have been bailed out between now and then but not on the scale of the GFC. They also bailed out a bunch of Mexican banks after poor investments by them, because Americans had a bunch of money tied up in them in '95 (I think). They was a whole heap of bailing out during Savings and Loans crisis and dotcom bust. The noose has been there for a long time. It's been slowly pulled tight.

Some of the worst things from the GFC was: there were hundreds of thousands who committed fraud on mortgage forms (as asked by mortgage brokers). NO one went to jail. The credit agencies were paid off to give higher results on mortgages. No one went to jail. FDIC is meant to protect a certain proportion of your savings, so you didn't go bankrupt immediately during the crisis. But Bush and Obama paid everyone's deposits, including those who made the bad investments. The bailout also made sure that most bad debt was paid out at 100 cents in the dollar. No haircuts. And no cuts to boards, who made this mess. All paid by the tax payer.
You're getting some events and causality mixed up in your head.

With Mexico, you're talking about the debt crisis which was an early '80s-'90s thing. Mexico's debt to GDP ratio exploded on the back of petrodollars to fuel rapid infrastructure development and import-substitute industrialization, so when the energy crisis hit leading to global stagflation, Mexico could no longer service its sovereign debt due to high interest rates. The IMF bailed Mexico out, but a precondition to this was austerity, abandoning ISI, and ratifying NAFTA. Thanks to NAFTA, Mexico initially saw a surge in foreign private investment money, but the Zapatista revolution and nomination and assassination of presidential candidate Colosio "caused uncertainty" in the Mexican "market" (read, American banks and investment funds were in danger of not being able to completely assrape a sovereign state and get away scot-free); Mexico was in danger of defaulting again, and had to devalue the peso and receive another IMF bailout.

If you've ever heard the term "economic terrorism", the situation with Mexico between '82-95 is a pretty clear-cut example of it. Look into the Chase Manhattan bank memo if you want a real glimpse into the psychology of American financial institutions when it comes to outmoded concepts like state sovereignty. Hell, there are still conspiracy theories -- with a fair amount of support -- that Colosio's assassination was at least facilitated on behalf of American lending institutions and/or the CIA.

With the S&L crisis, honestly, it was the global financial crisis' proof of concept test. Wave of expansive deregulation allowed lending institutions to overleverage in risky real estate loans, and junk bonds and securities. Instead of being forced into bankruptcy, insolvent lending institutions were allowed to go into forbearance, the end result of which was further consequence-free overloading of bad debt. Basically Countrywide, except way, way bigger. The primary difference between the S&L crisis and '08 was the repeal of Glass-Steagall, and the subsequent mass consolidation wave.

Which is the key salient issue for today. We never broke up the banks, and never implemented anything approaching sane financial regulation. We did some stuff that looked like it (Dodd-Frank) but had zero real impact on how the financial sector operates. If anything, today's economy is an even bigger house of cards than it was in '05. TARP and ARRA may have prevented a global depression then, but it simply delayed the inevitable, and for it guaranteed a bigger, worse depression further down the line.

Google SLAB securities. I called it a decade ago, and predicted then if the financial sector was allowed to do it, inside five years we'd be in a global depression that would make the '30s look like a walk in the park. It started around '16 or '17 if I remember right.
 

Agema

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Eacaraxe said:
Last Saturday during my game night, that Rogan interview with Bernie came up. The youngest member of the gaming group, 22-23 (fuck me if I remember), asked what the big deal was about high-frequency algorithmic trading. I unironically explained it to him by comparing it to Richard Pryor's big scheme in Superman 3. That's probably the best way I can express my thoughts on how fucked we all are. Our neck's been in the guillotine since TARP, ARRA, and Dodd-Frank amounted to a nice big payday and green flag to the financial sector to burn everything to the ground.
I never really considered a lot of financial dealings that hard until the 2000s, but I read around and realised a substantial chunk of it appears to have no real value or relationship to production of goods and services at all: it's basically a bunch of wankers gambling and/or trying to trick other people out of money.

To an extent, fair enough... if people want to do that, I don't see why they shouldn't. Except that they should call it a casino and only be able to use their own money (as opposed to other people's via investment funds, etc.), playing only with other people who know exactly what the score is as well.

Eacaraxe said:
If you've ever heard the term "economic terrorism", the situation with Mexico between '82-95 is a pretty clear-cut example of it. Look into the Chase Manhattan bank memo if you want a real glimpse into the psychology of American financial institutions when it comes to outmoded concepts like state sovereignty. Hell, there are still conspiracy theories -- with a fair amount of support -- that Colosio's assassination was at least facilitated on behalf of American lending institutions and/or the CIA.
I'm pretty sure some country (Malaysia?) has currently dumped legal charges on Goldman Sachs and some of its execs for helping a scam. Goldman Sachs is protesting its innocence, but then you look at the history of them and their peers, and they have totally gone deep in a zillion scams just so long as they thought they'd profit. Rigging raw materials markets, Enron, Greece (yes, GS helped the Greek government fiddle its books).

I think they mostly rely on either fraud being notoriously hard to prove, and even if it is proven, the fines inevitably come out much less than the money they made. The punishments really need to be much higher, because it's obvious from so many repeated breaches that it's well worth their while.
 

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Ah yes, the inverted yield curve.

If Liz Warren wins hopefully she does not bail out the banks and puts the stimulus money toward an infrastructure bill/spending.
 

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Boom/bust economies are pretty simple: during a bust, the rich buy everything for cut rate prices, the economy improves, making those investments much more valuable. The rich cash out, the economy collapses, rinse and repeat.