Poll: Dilemma. What will you do to protect yourself?

[Loonyyy]

Well, this isn't at all sadistic or insane...

All of the options are weighted to basically exploit peoples inherent properties: Sensible people get screwed by A, because selfish people choose B.

If you look at the results of the poll, most people choose A, but only by like a 12% margin. So, it's practically a coin flip.

So you'd have to consider the risk/reward.

Let's simplify the odds to 50:50 (Because I'm not packing a calculator).

If you choose A for all:

1/8 chance you make it unscathed.

7/8 chance you lose everything. Poor bet.

If you choose B for all:

1/2 chance you make it through unscathed.

3/8 chance you lose a leg.

1/8 chance you lose 3 limbs.

So, from the maths resulting from the votes, it seems that B is the best choice.

BUT: This isn't a Maths test. The optimal answer is A. If everyone answers A, the test is toothless. No-one is injured at any point. The problem is that humans aren't rational creatures, and the moment that someone thinking irrationally changes the status quo by voting B, there becomes a danger to voting A. Until you reach the point here, where people are willing to choose the selfish option to the extent that it's actually more profitable than choosing the option which provides the greatest benefit. Of course, the test being blind, it doesn't even matter whether people are choosing B to begin with-fear is the test.

So, I guess the question is, are you an idealist, or a pragmatist? Because if the balance swings in favour of B votes-you still have a lower loss (Voting A then becomes increasingly dangerous) by voting B, and if it swings in favour of A, you have a greater probability of gain. There is always an advantage to picking B to yourself. You of course, run the risk of horribly injuring someone you know though. There is always a terrible risk to yourself choosing A.

Correction: It's a split of two schools of thought:
A/B
Idealist/Pragmatist.
Altruist/(Objectivist, maybe? I'm fairly sure there's a better word, because Objectivism is a bit more complicated than just self-interest. If someone has the word, let me know.)

Well done OP though, this problem really is rigged to hell, it's almost a situation no-win.

 

[JoJo]

Hahaha no. There is no reason to pick B other than a desire to hurt someone. Obviously people are going to get angry at the idea of someone ruining another person's life for the sake of avoiding two extra rounds. Why choose a win-lose situation when there is an obvious win-win?

Also, the people who claim they would pick B for the sake of their families seem to have difficulty reading.

Why exactly do they have difficulty reading? If you pick B every time, regardless of what the opponent does, your family can't be brought into it. Every time you pick A however you're risking the opponent defecting and a family member being brought into the game. It's pretty simple really.

 

[Loonyyy]

It's an interesting observation that a torrent of abuse has been coming from the A side, who have castigated B's as "dick heads", "morons", "idiots", "assholes", "cavemen", "Missing Links", or unable to think critically or are even what's wrong with humanity. On the other hand from the B side has been almost perfectly calm, with at the most one heated reply after repeated insults from an A.

A telling example of which side is truly in the right, perhaps?

I do find it telling that most of them castigate the other side, without doing the maths themselves.

I'm firmly on the side that A is the optimal answer, but some people seem to not notice that people don't always pick the optimal answer, which changes what the optimal answer is, depending on your goals.

 

[manic_depressive13]

Why exactly do they have difficulty reading? If you pick B every time, regardless of what the opponent does, your family can't be brought into it. Every time you pick A however you're risking the opponent defecting and a family member being brought into the game. It's pretty simple really.

You just cut out the quote I showed as proof? He says you might be pitted against a friend or relative. It's quite clear that your family members may ALREADY be in the game.

B:A
3. If you chose option B whilst the person on the other side of the monitor chooses option A, this game ends, no more matching and as an added bonus, all of your friends and relatives currently in this game are released as well as all of you are given the promise of never being bothered by this game, again. This includes those not currently participating this game.

Emphasis mine. If you press B you risk blinding and crippling a family member who has already been forced to participate.

If you press A and lose, you guarantee bringing a close friend/relative into the game, but there is NO guarantee that they're not already there.

Thank you for proving my point by the way. Comprehension. Hard.

 

[Loonyyy]

I did a quick simulation based from the even numbers.
With me picking A I did a flip to see if I was lucky enough to save myself, and the my opponent. I escaped unharmed.
I then did a flip for JoJo.
First flip he lost a limb, second flip he saved himself and his family from the game.

Take that however you will.

You have to flip three times if you select A before you freed, that means if we assume even numbers of A and B then your chances of escape are 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/8. Not great odds to be honest.

Yep I derped there.
Anyhow, let me rexamine the situation as it now stands:

I did a quick simulation based from the even numbers.
With me picking A I did a flip to see if I was lucky enough help save myself and my opponent, and the my opponent. I flipped yes once, lucky enough to add 1 point to my opponent and my own freedom, the second time I flipped tails, saving my opponenent and his/her entire family.
I then did a flip for JoJo.
First flip he lost a limb, along with his opponent, second flip he saved himself and his family from the game, whilst condemning someone else to losing all their limbs and adding one of their family members to the game.

Again, take that as you will.

Be honest, and do the entire maths.

If you know logic tables, or even better, Karnaugh maps, it'll take you 2 minutes to scratch one out, and since it's roughly 50:50, the maths is easy.

Even better, look at my post where I did it for you.

 

[Arakasi]

I did a quick simulation based from the even numbers.
With me picking A I did a flip to see if I was lucky enough to save myself, and the my opponent. I escaped unharmed.
I then did a flip for JoJo.
First flip he lost a limb, second flip he saved himself and his family from the game.

Take that however you will.

You have to flip three times if you select A before you freed, that means if we assume even numbers of A and B then your chances of escape are 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/8. Not great odds to be honest.

Yep I derped there.
Anyhow, let me rexamine the situation as it now stands:

I did a quick simulation based from the even numbers.
With me picking A I did a flip to see if I was lucky enough help save myself and my opponent, and the my opponent. I flipped yes once, lucky enough to add 1 point to my opponent and my own freedom, the second time I flipped tails, saving my opponenent and his/her entire family.
I then did a flip for JoJo.
First flip he lost a limb, along with his opponent, second flip he saved himself and his family from the game, whilst condemning someone else to losing all their limbs and adding one of their family members to the game.

Again, take that as you will.

Be honest, and do the entire maths.

If you know logic tables, or even better, Karnaugh maps, it'll take you 2 minutes to scratch one out, and since it's roughly 50:50, the maths is easy.

Even better, look at my post where I did it for you.

I did that back when it was essencially 50:50 and I didn't want to do the maths, I wanted to do a simulation.

 

[Loonyyy]

I did a quick simulation based from the even numbers.
With me picking A I did a flip to see if I was lucky enough to save myself, and the my opponent. I escaped unharmed.
I then did a flip for JoJo.
First flip he lost a limb, second flip he saved himself and his family from the game.

Take that however you will.

You have to flip three times if you select A before you freed, that means if we assume even numbers of A and B then your chances of escape are 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/8. Not great odds to be honest.

Yep I derped there.
Anyhow, let me rexamine the situation as it now stands:

I did a quick simulation based from the even numbers.
With me picking A I did a flip to see if I was lucky enough help save myself and my opponent, and the my opponent. I flipped yes once, lucky enough to add 1 point to my opponent and my own freedom, the second time I flipped tails, saving my opponenent and his/her entire family.
I then did a flip for JoJo.
First flip he lost a limb, along with his opponent, second flip he saved himself and his family from the game, whilst condemning someone else to losing all their limbs and adding one of their family members to the game.

Again, take that as you will.

Be honest, and do the entire maths.

If you know logic tables, or even better, Karnaugh maps, it'll take you 2 minutes to scratch one out, and since it's roughly 50:50, the maths is easy.

Even better, look at my post where I did it for you.

I did that back when it was essencially 50:50 and I didn't want to do the maths, I wanted to do a simulation.

A simulation gives you one result, not the most likely results, which is actually the indicator you're looking for. Regardless, I've churned out all the results. Seriously, it's simply. It's a 2varx1var Karnaugh map. And, twice you got a result which indicates injury to Jojo, and got the optimal result for yourself. That's actually rather unlikely. I'm inclined to think you made it up, but whatever, it's a white lie (Intended to offend Jojo I presume) pertinent to the real intellectual fraud going on here.

A random simulation of probabilities is not proof of anything. Indeed, when the sample size you chose is less than the total of the outcomes involved, it is rigorously intellectually dishonest. A simulation does not show anything, since these are probabalistic outcomes. You can simulate the action of a bridge under strain. You can't simulate the moment when a particle decays. Using the word simulation, you seem to think brings some sort of authority to what you've done. It doesn't. It's dishonest. It's a complete disregard for the study of probability, and statistics, and completely ignoring the point of the question. It's game theory. Game theory is an attempt at modelling human interactions with probability.

For the record, I agree with you entirely in your decision-A is the best choice for all outcomes, with one proviso-everyone else must have the conviction to do the same.

 

[Killclaw Kilrathi]

Obviously the ideal situation is for everyone to pick A, though looking at the replies I'm not so sure if that's viable anymore.

 

[JoJo]

Why exactly do they have difficulty reading? If you pick B every time, regardless of what the opponent does, your family can't be brought into it. Every time you pick A however you're risking the opponent defecting and a family member being brought into the game. It's pretty simple really.

You just cut out the quote I showed as proof? He says you might be pitted against a friend or relative. It's quite clear that your family members may ALREADY be in the game.

B:A
3. If you chose option B whilst the person on the other side of the monitor chooses option A, this game ends, no more matching and as an added bonus, all of your friends and relatives currently in this game are released as well as all of you are given the promise of never being bothered by this game, again. This includes those not currently participating this game.

Emphasis mine. If you press B you risk blinding and crippling a family member who has already been forced to participate.

If you press A and lose, you guarantee bringing a close friend/relative into the game, but there is NO guarantee that they're not already there.

Thank you for proving my point by the way. Comprehension. Hard.

There's no indication of how many people are in the game, or what the chances are of a family member being opposite you, so this is all going to be somewhat hypothetical: regardless, I'd imagine the chances of being opposite a family member are significantly lower than the 7/8 chance you have of being screwed if you chose A all three times (assuming equal odds for A & B), so B makes sense unless there is literally two people in the game: you and a family member. Even if it was just you, a family member and a stranger, the 1/2 odds of being paired up with a family member are still better than 7/8.

 

[Auron225]

As nice as it would be to count on the other people to keep choosing A, I wouldn't do it. Why should I trust someone completely unknown to me?

It's the "loved ones will immediately be out of the game and never forced to take part in it" that sealed it for me. I know I'm screwing over other people but if Im screwing people over regardless then Id rather it not be people I care about (as selfish as that might sound). If that wasn't the case; then I'd consider A.

EDIT: As I said above, its really my concern for my loved ones that would make me choose B and losing possibly 3 limbs is worth not bringing them into it. If they weren't going to be involved no matter what happens, then I'd choose A.

BUT, I would actually hope the other person chooses A since that GUARANTEES their safety.

If I did choose A and got screwed over by someone that picked B, I wouldn't blame them or want to seek veangence against them - I'd blame the terrorists that set this thing up in the first place.

 

[manic_depressive13]

There's no indication of how many people are in the game, or what the chances are of a family member being opposite you, so this is all going to be somewhat hypothetical: regardless, I'd imagine the chances of being opposite a family member are significantly lower than the 7/8 chance you have of being screwed if you chose A all three times (assuming equal odds for A & B), so B makes sense unless there is literally two people in the game: you and a family member. Even if it was just you, a family member and a stranger, the 1/2 odds of being paired up with a family member are still better than 7/8.

Statistically that's true. However, when you apply the power of rationality you realise that there is no tangible benefit to picking B unless you suspect the other person intends to pick B, and there's no reason to suspect them of doing that because of the aforementioned lack of tangible benefit.

That is, not before seeing this poll and discovering the plethora of people who just happen to be completely mental.

 

[JoJo]

There's no indication of how many people are in the game, or what the chances are of a family member being opposite you, so this is all going to be somewhat hypothetical: regardless, I'd imagine the chances of being opposite a family member are significantly lower than the 7/8 chance you have of being screwed if you chose A all three times (assuming equal odds for A & B), so B makes sense unless there is literally two people in the game: you and a family member. Even if it was just you, a family member and a stranger, the 1/2 odds of being paired up with a family member are still better than 7/8.

Statistically that's true. However, when you apply the power of rationality you realise that there is no tangible benefit to picking B unless you suspect the other person intends to pick B, and there's no reason to suspect them of doing that because of the aforementioned lack of tangible benefit.

That is, not before seeing this poll and discovering the plethora of people who just happen to be completely mental.

I will admit that this poll isn't necessarily that accurate, as in the "real" situation you wouldn't see others choices beforehand so perhaps more people would pick A believing everyone else would. On the other hand, perhaps the actual threat of terrible injury (as opposed to being a hypothetical thread on a gaming forum) would cause people to act less altruistically than they would claim here and pick B. There's no way to know unless someone actually ran it... any volunteers? ;-)

 

[Frankster]

Can i see or speak to the person im "competing against"? OP wasnt clear in that regard and would be a big factor in my decision making.

If i can see them, then will all be in the look we exchange and if i get a vibe i can trust the guy/gal or not.
If i can speak to him/her, then even better and so id make an arbitrary decision whether to A or B depending on the vibe i got from the person.

If answer is a definite no then i admit id have no idea what to do. Im naturally suspicious of people i dont know, veer on the paranoid side and fully expect strangers to screw me over so B seems the safest call, but screwing over someone who pressed A whilst i pressed B woulnt be acceptable to me either,so really id be like a rabbit caught in headlights in this situation and just freeze up and choke and end up pressing a random button just as time expires. Or not press anything at all and die a messy death. Either way im totally haunting the saw like villain who hosted this when im dead.

 

[Arakasi]

I did a quick simulation based from the even numbers.
With me picking A I did a flip to see if I was lucky enough to save myself, and the my opponent. I escaped unharmed.
I then did a flip for JoJo.
First flip he lost a limb, second flip he saved himself and his family from the game.

Take that however you will.

You have to flip three times if you select A before you freed, that means if we assume even numbers of A and B then your chances of escape are 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/8. Not great odds to be honest.

Yep I derped there.
Anyhow, let me rexamine the situation as it now stands:

I did a quick simulation based from the even numbers.
With me picking A I did a flip to see if I was lucky enough help save myself and my opponent, and the my opponent. I flipped yes once, lucky enough to add 1 point to my opponent and my own freedom, the second time I flipped tails, saving my opponenent and his/her entire family.
I then did a flip for JoJo.
First flip he lost a limb, along with his opponent, second flip he saved himself and his family from the game, whilst condemning someone else to losing all their limbs and adding one of their family members to the game.

Again, take that as you will.

Be honest, and do the entire maths.

If you know logic tables, or even better, Karnaugh maps, it'll take you 2 minutes to scratch one out, and since it's roughly 50:50, the maths is easy.

Even better, look at my post where I did it for you.

I did that back when it was essencially 50:50 and I didn't want to do the maths, I wanted to do a simulation.

A simulation gives you one result, not the most likely results, which is actually the indicator you're looking for.

Actually, if the statistical likelihoods were what I was looking for I would have done them. Alas, I was not looking for them.

Regardless, I've churned out all the results. Seriously, it's simply. It's a 2varx1var Karnaugh map. And, twice you got a result which indicates injury to Jojo, and got the optimal result for yourself. That's actually rather unlikely. I'm inclined to think you made it up, but whatever, it's a white lie (Intended to offend Jojo I presume) pertinent to the real intellectual fraud going on here.

Actually, if you'll kindly read this you will find out you're entirely wrong.

I did a quick simulation based from the even numbers.
With me picking A I did a flip to see if I was lucky enough to save myself, and the my opponent. I escaped unharmed.
I then did a flip for JoJo.
First flip he lost a limb, second flip he saved himself and his family from the game.

Take that however you will.

You have to flip three times if you select A before you freed, that means if we assume even numbers of A and B then your chances of escape are 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/8. Not great odds to be honest.

Yep I derped there.
Anyhow, let me rexamine the situation as it now stands:

I did a quick simulation based from the even numbers.
With me picking A I did a flip to see if I was lucky enough help save myself and my opponent, and the my opponent. I flipped yes once, lucky enough to add 1 point to my opponent and my own freedom, the second time I flipped tails, saving my opponenent and his/her entire family.
I then did a flip for JoJo.
First flip he lost a limb, along with his opponent, second flip he saved himself and his family from the game, whilst condemning someone else to losing all their limbs and adding one of their family members to the game.

Again, take that as you will.

How about you do the research before calling someone an intellectually dishonest liar eh?

A random simulation of probabilities is not proof of anything.

I was fucking aware of that, I said that I wanted to do a simulation because I felt like it.

Indeed, when the sample size you chose is less than the total of the outcomes involved, it is rigorously intellectually dishonest.

Not when I'm not writing a paper, or claiming these results to be indicative of a large sample.

A simulation does not show anything, since these are probabalistic outcomes. You can simulate the action of a bridge under strain. You can't simulate the moment when a particle decays. Using the word simulation, you seem to think brings some sort of authority to what you've done. It doesn't. It's dishonest. It's a complete disregard for the study of probability, and statistics, and completely ignoring the point of the question. It's game theory. Game theory is an attempt at modelling human interactions with probability.

You're repeating yourself, and I know all that. I did it in a word style to get the maximum effect against his morality, words are more immediately emotionally evocative than numebers.
And for the last fucking time, I wasn't doing this for statistics, if I wanted to get statistical likelihoods I would have fucking done it, what I wanted was a one off simulation for the fun of it.

For the record, I agree with you entirely in your decision-A is the best choice for all outcomes, with one proviso-everyone else must have the conviction to do the same.

Yes, you mentioned that last time.

 

[MeChaNiZ3D]

Damn...that is a really well thought-out situation.

If I choose A, I have to rely on the other person choosing A as well. If everyone had the good sense to choose A, there would be no problem ever. But the fact is, some people are likely to choose B to free all their friends and relatives - ironically probably because they don't trust their friends' partners to choose A. Or they're assholes, who knows.

The two outcomes for me are a tepid continuation, or multilation AND roping a friend into this sick game. The only way for me to make good on that after the latter is to choose B and hope I get a naive idealist to horrifically injure.

If I choose B, I'm either being pretty badly injured, or dooming someone else to not only a horrible fate, but also probably making them disillusioned and more likely to choose B in the future. There is an unfortunate side-effect though, if you can live with yourself after getting a B:A on the first round: All of your friends and relatives will know that you caused a trusting, good person to be horribly mutilated for your own benefit.

In conclusion, there are always going to be a population who choose B. If for no other reason (maybe they're all mature when lives are at stake) than because they don't trust OTHER PEOPLE to choose A. So if you are one of those who will always choose A, some of you are going to be limbless, blinded and guilt-ridden. But to be honest, as much as I'd like to be able to cause someone else immense suffering and brush it off afterwards, I'd rather be mutilated knowing I was working towards the best outcome for everyone.

Actually...no, the things I enjoy most in life (videogames, drawing, etc.) all involve my right arm and vision. If I choose B all the time, I'll either be let off straight away or at worst left with one arm intact, and able to draw. Can we get prosthetics afterwards, or is the limb removal permanent?

...still A.

And on the subject of picking B for your family and friends' sake, everyone has to play at some time, so if you don't horrifically injure someone and get off free, they will have to play at some point anyway. Funnily enough, two people hoping to save their families being partnered up ensures both fail.