Poll: The "inevitable" nuclear apocalypse

[Kolby Jack]

I seem to know quite a few cynics who have this weird (IMO) notion that despite the end of the Soviet Union and thus the Cold War, a nuclear apocalypse is inevitable. While it's true that that tens of thousands of nuclear weapons still exist and the US still has subs patrolling the ocean ready for a nuclear strike at any moment (USA! USA!), I just don't see this happening. Nuclear weapons are, as Tony Stark would say, a weapon you only need to use once. The world knows the devastation even a single nuke will cause, let alone all of them. NO COUNTRY is crazy enough to use them because it's suicide! It doesn't even look like any country is crazy enough to sell or otherwise lose nuclear weapons to terrorists at this point (if they were going to, they probably would of by now). In fact, all it seems nuclear weapons are good for these days is keeping the peace and giving third world dictators a crazy dream to try (and fail) to achieve. Kim Jong-Il is the craziest guy on Earth with nukes and yet hasn't shown any signs of intending to use them, and he's FUCKING NUTS.

And yet, still people say it'll happen. What do you guys think? Are we doomed to a nuclear apocalypse or will nukes continue to be an unused peace enforcer/Hollywood plot generator?

Please try to stay on topic. Just putting that out there.

 

[Kevonovitch]

pretty much, only way i can see this being possible, is if north korea starts throwing a temper tantrum, again, and nukes japan, then usa and china nuke eachother and usa nukes north korea, and shit goes all downhill from there. past that point, i got nothing solid, too many possabilities, but way would be inevitable, aswell as alot of place quite uninhabitable for a looong time.

 

[infohippie]

In terms of a potential nuclear exchange, I would be most concerned about India vs Pakistan or Israel vs any Arab nation. India and Pakistan seem to hate each other enough to one day push the button, whereas Israel is certainly arrogant enough to do the same and assume their rich sugar daddy will keep them from repercussions.
I seriously doubt Russia or the US are likely to drop a nuke on anyone, and I don't think North Korea's stupid enough to do so given their leaders know the rest of the world would stomp their whole country flat. They're simply posturing more than anything.

 

[Wolfenbarg]

Nuclear threat from a small nation is possible, but a global scale nuclear war is incredibly unlikely barring a complete decay in the global economic system. Currently, that is the greatest deterrent there is. All of the largest countries in the world rely on each other for their continued existence, and for that reason, we keep the axe buried in our closet somewhere.

 

[Aris Khandr]

Sooner or later, someone (my money is on Palestine) is going to nuke someone else (probably Israel). This will likely kick off World War III, as the world in general decides that not only does Palestine need to be taken care of, but Iran and North Korea are also too dangerous to keep around for largely the same reason. How bloody and radioactive that war is depends entirely on whether or not China gets involved.

 

[gbemery]

Kim Jong-Il is the craziest guy on Earth with nukes and yet hasn't shown any signs of intending to use them, and he's FUCKING NUTS.

Maybe his stroke calmed his passions for nuking things some?

OT: Anyway I believe a nuke will be used again whether by a sovereign nation or by a terrorist group, but it will not lead to a end of the world event. The worst in my opinion will be maybe a country or two will have a substantial loss of population. Lets say for example a nuke is detonated on U.S. soil or on the soil of any other country with nuclear weapons. If that happened somebody else is going to get nuked as well. I don't think it will lead to the whole snowball effect of other countries either seizing the opportunity to take out another country or them holding up an alliance by nuclear weapons.

If it is one nuke set off in a city then it will be probably no more than 24 hours before the government finds the most likely suspect/country and returns the favor.

If a country/alliance was going behind the attack most likely, depending on the target, they would be surprised and their ability to respond would be nearly wiped out. Granted most likely a few retaliatory nukes would have been shot off. But a case like this even if both sides knew the about the attacks and sent off enough to retaliate (since most likely the response of the ruler isn't going to be "Fuck it send everything") the main casualties is going to be the two sides involved. Then other countries will most likely wait for things to settle down and help out to be able to come out on top economically.

 

[Zeekar]

Nukes are just a show of power. Even if one nation had the balls to use them, the response would be a swift tactical strike from the rest of the world, not everyone suddenly pressing the "red button". To think otherwise would be pretty gullible.

Those in power just want to make you think it is an option even when it isn't. CoughKimJongIlCough.

 

[Custard_Angel]

Nope. Just nope.

No major government will launch their nukes. Even in retaliation to nukes.

If rogue cell extremists or stupid fucking countries launch a nuke (*cough* North Korea *cough*), then they will be responded to with cruise missiles and MOABs and other such massive ordinance devices, but never nukes.

And even when they are holding back the greatest of their weapons, people will still criticize the response as excessive.

 

[BonsaiK]

And yet, still people say it'll happen. What do you guys think?.

Will never happen. Amazes me that some people still think it will.

Nukes are "old" technology now. They don't do their job all that effectively. Sure, they destroy stuff, but what good is the land that's destroyed? Given that most wars are about control of territory and resources (once you dig under the surface of all the excuses like religion, freedom etc), why would you want to contaminate the territory you're trying to control? That's fucking straight-up dumb, and that's the real reason why nukes will never be used. Conventional weapons are better, they get the job done cleaner, neater, with less collateral and with less of a stain on the international PR record.

Let's look for a moment at the countries the ultra-paranoid US is worried about (all "we're gonna get nuked" concerns seem to stem exclusively from this country, for some reason, guess it must be the xenophobic cold war era propaganda still working). North Korea won't nuke South Korea because North Korea wants that land for itself - it would be like nuking your own country! That's too dumb even for North Korea's leadership. China won't nuke the US because why bother nuking the country that's buying all your stuff and giving you tons of money? Iran can't even fucking refine oil, they're not going to be nuking anybody, and they know what will happen if they do. Russia won't nuke the US, they're too worried about the extremists in their own backyard to even care what the US does anymore. They won't nuke those people either. If those people try anything out on Russia god help them because they'll get crushed like bugs. No-one will ever drop a nuke anywhere near Israel because there's a bunch of holy sites there that are holy for about three different religions including the ones holding the nuke buttons, and Israel won't nuke anyone either because they can handle their shit without it, and also their enemies are real, real close to them so they're going to get hit with the fallout (also see North Korea). A rogue terror cell won't get their hands on a nuke and detonate it either - if 9/11 taught anybody anything it should have taught people that the west's enemies are brilliant at doing cost/benefit analysis, they brought down two skyscrapers plus ripped a big hole in the Pentagon with some box cutters and a bit of flight training. Right now they're blowing up expensive tanks with $50 IEDs. Think they'll go for nukes over the dozens of other, cheaper and easier options available to them?

Will never happen. Ever. Not in the lifetimes of anybody reading this. Not in your grandchildren's lifetimes, if you have any. The only nuclear disaster from 2011 onward will be accidents - nuclear plants fucking up due to natural phenomena or carelessness, mismanagement of missile stockpiles meaning something blows up in a desert somewhere, dumb, stupid shit. Humanity should never have gone down the nuclear road in the first place, and now we're gonna pay the price, but it won't be our enemies that kill us - it'll be our own stupidity. Won't be an apocalypse either though, just a few tragedies, contaminations and pointless deaths every few decades until we learn the lesson to keep the nuclear shit in the fucking ground.

 

[Aris Khandr]

I seriously doubt that the first nuclear strike will be from a nation. Even predicting Palestine doing it, it's really Hamas terrorists who would be the ones to do it, not the official military of Palestine. Frankly, I don't put anything past terrorists, and it seems to me that a nuclear attack on Israel will happen sooner or later.

 

[Tiger Sora]

Mutually assured destruction is a strong deterrent for the use of such weapons. Which is why it highly unlikely that there will ever be an all out nuclear attack. Single incidence yeh I can see it happening. But a country leader no matter how insane doesn't want to get himself and his country blown up.

North Korea won't do anything since it's really China who calls the shots. Iran probably doesn't have them yet and would more use them to expand their influence than use them.

So all out, odds are lengthly.

 

[kortin]

Didn't you know? Fallout 3 isn't a gleam into the future. Its a gleam into the past. That happened. It sent us spiraling back into the stone age. We just forgot about it. And all the grass grew back...

Its all just an endless circle. Society will build itself up, and then blow each other up. Then we'll be in the stone age again. Build ourselves up, blow each other up. -sigh-

Serious Answer:

I do believe we will all blow each other up. Maybe not with nukes. But something will blow us up. It seems pretty inevitable to me. :\

 

[iLikeHippos]

Will not happen, because of said reasons already mentioned. Nukes are not efficient killing tools, they are just to demonstrate retaliation power nowadays.
Nothing more.