Poll: The Next Gaming Crash

[mitchell271]

Just watched this week's Jimquisition and I realised that there seems to be a growing notion that another gaming crash is around the corner. I've seen it on a lot of different gaming sites and with publishers getting greedier and greedier, I think it's going to happen in the next 5 years. Publishers just seem too preoccupied with nickel and diming customers to care about whether or not we like the product anymore.

So, when you do think it's going to happen? Not if, this thing is kind of inevitable.

 

[veloper]

There won't ever be another crash.
Too many parties can take over when/if a couple big publishers piss off their fanbase too much and go bust.

It's also easier to seperate the real shit from the usual mediocre crap now, than back in the days of the atari 2600, because you're online now. The disappointment and hate won't ever be so unfocused anymore.

Also despite what Jim thinks, the current publishers will get away with their bad practices, because gamers nowadays lap that piss up.

We have alot of decline to look forward to in the mainstream and at the same time the indies and other smaller companies will offer alternatives for those who would otherwise quit gaming.

 

[Smooth Operator]

Well I'm sure some branches will dry out and some pompous bubbles will burst but nothing overly catastrophic, there are already more games coming out then one has time or money for so sizing down would really do more good then harm.

 

[Rawne1980]

There won't be another.

You have to remember when the one and only gaming crash happened, Atari were basically controlling the field.

If one of the big publisher crash like Atari did, no one would notice. Other developers/publishers are still making money and releasing games. Smaller developers are releasing games.

It wasn't even a gaming crash. It was an Atari crash which Nintendo soon took advantage of.

The big publishers aren't likely to fold anytime soon despite what a few people here believe. Yeah EA's stocks are down but it's still a milti billion dollar company and still sells games by the bucket load. Even SW:TOR, which some consider to be a flop, made them a profit.

The publishers won't flop because no matter what they do or whatever shady practices they bring up people will still throw money at them.

People here, that complain about those practices, throw money at them.

The best thing to do when it comes to complaints about publishers is ignore the person spouting them because 9 times out of 10 they are still buying their games.

In short, gaming won't see another crash EVER. Far too many people involved now compared to the 80's when Atari basically dominated it.

 

[IamQ]

Pfft, naw. The indie scene is big enough now to support us, even if the big guys stop.

 

[Johnny Novgorod]

That's a tough one. The only way to predict a gaming crash is to sample the crashes of '77 and '83, and see if such scenarios are applicable to the market of today. In the case of the '77 crash, it's a little obscure for me (something to do with Pong and clones being sold at a loss) but as for the '83 thing: 1) there were too many consoles on the market, 2) PCs had recently been introduced as gaming alternatives.

Nowadays we have a solid three-way with the PS3, the Xbox 360 and the Wii. The Wii lives off the carcass of Nintendo mascots while the PS3 and the Xbox 360 duke it out fair and square based on online service, exclusives, etc. And I can't think of anything like the introduction of the PCs in the gaming market to scare the publishers. Lots of people will point out to "game quality" going downhill because this and that, but let's face it, publishers have never gone through anything like the E.T. fiasco, people AREN'T going to stop purchasing because they didn't like Mass Effect's ending, and for all they care there's no fixing what ain't broken.

So I don't see a crash in the near future. EA will keep ripping the larynxes of the dev studios it purchases, Nintendo will keep publishing their Mario games, and all will more or less move on predictably.

 

[Lilani]

As others have said, I don't really feel like there's going to be a "crash" just because the industry is spread across so many big companies now. While I do feel like some companies will probably get punished for their stupid decisions, and sooner rather than later, I don't think there's going to be a "crash." There are too many people who don't give a rat's ass about things like always-on DRM or just ignore all what's going on with pay to play for it to affect what they purchase.

It's not that the companies are too "big" to crash, either. The housing bubble is proof that size doesn't prevent crashing. However, the big companies that have a hand in the games industry are all so different have have such different approaches and structures that even if one makes a big mistake that causes them to crash, the rest will not necessarily make the same mistake. Yes a lot of companies have dipped into pay to play, but that isn't all they do. Crashes are caused by a whole bunch of entities putting all of their eggs in the same basket, and then that basket getting destroyed. I don't think the games industry is like that enough for a full-on crash to occur.

Pfft, naw. The indie scene is big enough now to support us, even if the big guys stop.

Though I wouldn't go that far. Console games are still a huge part of the industry, and though the indie market is growing for PC and mobile, they have yet to penetrate the console market beyond a few cult successes (that usually started on PC or mobile, anyway).

 

[hoboman29]

I have been thinking for a while that gaming as we know it will crash within the next 5-6 years due to the corporations who run gaming. With how far gaming has spread since the Atari age it will be very hard for gaming to die as a whole I wouldn't be surprised if it went back to a niche hobby with the companies making the AAA games dieing.

 

[Aris Khandr]

We won't see a "crash" the way everyone predicts. When it comes, it will be a budget crash. Right now, making a game is insanely expensive, and too often there isn't enough return on that investment to make it worthwhile. We won't see people just abandon the market, but we will see people taking lessons from THQ and Atari's recent bankruptcies, and stop investing so much into a game that isn't a guaranteed success.

We'll probably never see another Dragon Age: Origins or Mass Effect. A new IP won't get that kind of funding in the future, unless it is self-published through Kickstarter or the like. Initial offerings will be made far cheaper, and the money will show up for the sequel, provided there is enough interest for that sequel.

Basically, the gaming market is like a gambler. He got lucky and hit the jackpot a time or two, and has since been throwing away buckets of money hoping the next hand will bring more fortune. Instead, his wallet is emptying, and he sees that even when he does win big, it isn't making up for the massive bets he's been laying down everywhere else. So he'll either learn to start off with smaller bets, and only dump more money in when he sees the hand is good, or he'll lose all of his money in wasted efforts. That is the "crash" that is coming.

 

[Dead Seerius]

When I envision another gaming "crash" I don't necessarily think of one in the like of the 80s, but I do think we may be in for a sort of... recession I guess. I can picture some pretty big names taking the plunge if all the wrong dominoes fall into place; whether this'll be a good thing in the long run is what really matters if you ask me.

I can't really give an estimate according to years, since it's all according to if/when the industry gains some foresight, but if we're unlucky I can see a recession happening within the next decade.

(According to some we're already in a creative recession, but I'll blame that on a closing generation of consoles for the time being.)