Ultratwinkie said:
Thank you.
1. Only one soldier, and he was an Ex spec ops i believe but haven't seen him in a year. There are two other military bases but those are dead. I never seen anyone walk in, or out of those bases. They both look abandoned with heavy military hardware practically left on the front lawn for anyone to pick the lock and grab.
2. Sarah palin seems to have run her mouth and compromised the case in the US and will be tried in england. England will most likely get him off easy as he practically gave everyone the dirt they need to get the upper hand on the US. The US is in no position to demand anything from any nation for a long while. Not only that but threats of releasing more intel upon his death and the continued existence of wikileaks even after conviction practically makes him untouchable.
3. Iran refused to deal with the US and the world stage before. This information means nothing as they act the same. You can't make Iran worse as Iran already pissed off so many countries and is facing the same fate as North Korea. Sure the US is exposed but it wont be that way forever. Intel is time dependent and will be outdated (excluding the shady, corrupt deals). The defense will have to depend on the US nuke stockpile. No nation will make a movie with nukes still on the table. Sure nukes will become outdated since we have developed a better anti-missile tech that doesn't rely on smaller missiles and instead using lasers. By the time nukes are completely obsolete the intel would be long forgotten and useless to almost everyone but archivists and historians. When it comes to operations out of the US's reach, military operations and plans were not compromised to the point of failure but diplomacy is out of the question. However the progress on the world stage isn't the biggest issue, its the internals of America is that the word of the day. Why bother playing grab ass with other countries while you AND them are falling apart at the seams? The US was failing at military operations well before wikileaks was even thought of. If things were going well we wouldn't be running low on troops and the war would be going well. You can't take a turd and make it much worse.
4. You have a point but it would be easy for the government to debunk any fallacy he tried to cook up.
5. Sure Iran may not have enough for a full world domination but it would be enough to utter destroy and irradiate a strategic location. Imagine a terrorist walking into an important military, economic, or political hub then detonating a nuke. If it was a naval or military base we would be even more crippled than we are now. We barely have enough troops to defend ourselves as it is. If its an economic target that would kill any hope for an economic recovery. If its political we can say bye bye to order as America falls apart. The nuke could irradiate the area and would be abandoned much like Chernobyl not counting the dead, injured, skyrocketing cancer rates, and the mutated children that will result.
1.Coolio, maybe talk to some more, get a good picture of thei mindset, it helps, trust me.
2. Actually, as the leaks portrayed teh UK as having a parinoid delusion that the US would abandon them, so they've got the worst of the whole thing, coming across as weak and ineffectual. Besides Palin has no control of the US judical system, and cases like this aren't simply gonna be dropped because of something she said. The safest, most profitable thing for the US to do is to let him be picked up by a freindly state, negotiate for extradition and give him a fair trail. No one is untouchable. (Except for me of course, you oughta see the photos I have of Ban-ki-moon)
3. Not only Iran mate, besides now they have to act publicly or seem weak, they cannot afford this. Pakistan, the DPRK, China. Im not claiming that this will start a war, only that it pushes one that little bit closer, like a U2 being shot down on russian soil. Also, how can Pakistan maintain their popular support unless they reject the idea that they would ever allow the SASR on their soil. And if they say that they will never allow our troops on theri soil, how can we regard them as an ally? The elephant in the room has been pointed out, and now we are going to have to deal with it. This is not a good thing.
The area of concern is over teh next defence white paper period, the next five to ten years, and that is the perfect time frame for the damage caused by these leaks to come out. Some of these can easily be turned into a cassus belli by your average nutbag extreamist.
4.But who would believe them? If they say, 'document 119 is a fabrication' then everyone will say 'so ha, every other one is accurate'. If they say, 'every document is false' then no one will believe them, they are stuck.
5. See Iran may be batshit insane, but they are USSR batshit insane, not NAzi germany insane.They want to destroy us and come out the other side intact. So they will not conduct a first strike against anyone other than Israel. An attack by a non state actor, especially a mass casualty NBC event, could economically cripple the world, resulting in another depression. However, an attack against a politically or militarily important target, would result in a closing ranks, a seige mentality if you will. What we would see then is a hyper agressive foriegn policy, up to and including strategic interdictions of the instigators country of origen. A hit on a militarily important target could signal a balance of power shift, but nothing so dramatic as a 'red dawn scenario' as the US wouldmaintain its second strike capacity, with a probable increase in the willingness to use them. What we may see is a return to the 1930s idea of an isolationist US, leaving the primary power as China, who lacks any signifigant force projection assests.
This would put two into the head of both the unipolar moment and the bipolar moments. We would see a return the era of great, rather than super or hyper powers. Interactions would be mostly on the local level however as the specter of the angry, isolantionist and nuclear US looms.
Although I may be biased as Im trying to write a novel based on this concept.
3.