Grouchy Imp said:
I don't think it's that great a leap. Had the Germans wiped out the RAF in 1940, a successful invasion of Britain would have almost certainly followed, most likely keeping America out of the war (due to the vastly overwhelming support of isolationism held in America before Pearl Harbour) and ensuring that the Allies never set foot on Nazi occupied European soil at all. With Europe secure any attempt at opening the Eastern Front would have been much more likely to succeed, although without the fear of a two-pronged allied assault there is some doubt as to whether the Eastern Front would have happened at all.
That's quite an 'isolated' incident, but I understand where you're coming from.
Still, I think you underestimate the military presence in the home counties. Sure, in a straight-up fight, they'd lose, but it wouldn't really have been a straight up fight. If the RAF was under threat of giving aerial supremacy to der Luftwaffe, they would've retreated north of the Thames, which was out of range for most of the German fighter escorts. So while the Germans had superiority, it would be, by no means, assured. And the Home Fleet is still kicking about, which includes the battleships: Nelson; Rodney; King George V; Hood; Prince of Wales (still conducting sea tests, but I'm counting it); Repulse; and Duke of York. Against them, the Germans have: Bismarck; Tirpitz; Scharnhorst; and Gneisenau, the latter two of which only have 11inch main armament (the worst armed of the British ships was Repulse with 6x15in, while all the others were 10x14in or 9x16in - sorry, Hood had 8x15in). Desperate times call for desperate measures, and in a naval engagement the RN will win. Why? The Germans (at that time) had no aircraft carriers (except the Graf Zeppelin which, idiotically, didn't have any naval-adapted aerial complement), or any effective torpedo-bombers. Aerial cover is advantage with the Brits, because while their fighters are holding off the German light bombers (staging from East Anglia), the aircraft carriers Glorious, Furious, Formidable, Illustrious & Ark Royal can give the German ships a torrid time.
The Germans would've had to deal with the RN to successfully invade the British Isles, and engagement would've had to have been north east of Dover at the most southerly, as the Brits would never have engaged otherwise, and docking in Felixstowe would've been easy for them to sortie at minimal notice. And a battleship fight in such a location would've been advantage Britain all the way.
So nnnnnnn... still... *shrug*
BTW I'm thoroughly enjoying this discussion...
EDIT:
voorhees123 said:
Also Rommel wasnt that great. Easy to suceed when you have superiour weapons in greater number and you are defending what you had already taken. He still got his ass kicked.
Ah-HA! You're kidding me, right?! All the stats regarding Axis numbers in North Africa are inclusive of German and Italian combatants. The Italians were reluctant at best and their tanks were... well, scrapheaps to say the least. Case in point: Second Battle of El Alamein, as an Allied commander, only an idiot could've lost. Brits: 1052 tanks (IIRC), Germans: 523 tanks, of which only fewer than two hundred were Afrika Korps. Plus, Rommel wasn't even present at the time... And of the German tanks, 30 or so Mk II's and the rest were Mk III's with a small handful of Mk IV's, so the stock German tank was just on a par with a Grant. Thanks to Hitler's genius ploy of doubling the number of Panzer divisions, each one only had one tank regiment. Afrika Korps never had more than sixty percent of its paper strength in reality. Operationally, they were lucky to have fifty percent.
(Sorry, didn't mean to sound that belligerent.)