Random or not: How do you tell the difference?

[Stein Inge]

There´s a whole, grim set-up to this. I´ll try to make it short and to the point: There´s been a series of rapes in Oslo lately (29 rapes, and 22 attempts in october alone), also there´s been a sudden rash of reports of men trying to lure little children into their cars.

My girlfriend and I was discussing this and I said that I believe that it was a cluster of random events. She felt that this was oversimplifying matters and that one should look for some factor or event that could trigger such an sudden increase.

And so, my question is this:
How can you tell the difference between a cluster of random events and a series of events triggered by some unknown factor?

Also:

Is there a sort of "contagious" element to these sort of crimes, like if one person commits a rape will it trigger other would-be rapists?

What do you think, Escapists?

 

[Stein Inge]

I guess the only way to find out it isn't random is too gather evidence and get detectives to investigate into the matter. It either is or it isn't, and something like that you can't guess an answer.

Also what you said about a case like this being "contagious", I could definitely see that being a real thing. It's like a riot, only a few people need to start it to get a whole city involved.

There was an article that my girlfriend read by a swedish violence-expert that suggested that a huge event that somehow rocked peoples perception of their governments ability to keep them safe would cause a surge in crime. Criminal minds would interpret the governments diminished ability to keep the population safe as an increased chance that they could commit crimes without getting caught. Seeing as Norway just dealt with the 22. July massacre he makes an interesting point.

But I suppose you´re right, either it´s random or it isn´t, and we´ll likely never know...