Repeating the Mujahideen Mistakes with the Kurds and Syria: Turkey attacks after US withrdaws

Sep 24, 2008
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Turkey begins military offensive in Syria, days after Trump announced pullback of US troops [https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/09/politics/syria-turkey-invasion-intl-hnk/index.html]

Turkey has launched a planned military offensive into northeastern Syria, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced Wednesday, just days after the Trump administration announced it was pulling US troops back from the border area.

"Our aim is to destroy the terror corridor which is trying to be established on our southern border and to bring peace and peace to the region," Erdogan tweeted.

He added that Turkey "will preserve Syria's territorial integrity and liberate local communities from terrorists."


Shortly after Erdogan announced the offensive, the spokesman for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) -- a key US ally in northern Syria -- claimed that warplanes had begun carrying out airstrikes on civilian areas. "There is huge panic among people in the region," spokesman Mustafa Bali wrote.

A US official familiar with operations in Syria confirmed that Turkey conducted strikes in Tal Abyad in northern Syria and the border town of Ras al-Ayn.

Witnesses and two fighters for the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) told CNN that hundreds of civilians in northern Syria had fled areas on the border with Turkey. The fighters also said Turkey had used heavy artillery and conducted airstrikes on Ras al-Ayn.

The offensive comes days after US President Donald Trump provoked a storm of criticism, including from his own party, by announcing the pullback of US military forces from the region. Trump's decision in effect gave Turkey a green light to attack US-backed Kurdish forces, though Trump threatened to punish Turkey economically if it does 'anything outside of what we think is humane.'
To be fair, while some of us state-side are shocked, the Kurds braced themselves for this likelihood back in 2016 [https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/02/world/middleeast/kurds-syria-turkey.html].

For almost two years, Syrian Kurds, with American weapons, air cover and training, have fought and died in battle against the Islamic State. They have taken pride in their status as the United States' most faithful proxy in the fight against the militant group, and they have hoped their effectiveness as warriors would lead to American support for Kurdish political gains inside Syria.

So, many Kurds shuddered when Turkish tanks and soldiers recently rolled into northern Syria, with American support, to push back against Kurdish gains. They saw it, perhaps prematurely, as a replay of a century of betrayal by world powers, going back to the end of World War I, when they were promised, then denied, their own state in the postwar settlement.

"The Kurds are going to scream betrayal at every turn when they think things are not going to go their way, because they've had a century of it," said Joost Hiltermann, the program director for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group, and a longtime expert on the Kurds.

...

Drawing on history, Kurds see themselves as the playthings of world powers, used in proxy fights when it serves someone's interest and then discarded.

The United States, on balance, has arguably been a great friend to the Kurds, coming to their aid after the Persian Gulf war in the early 1990s and helping to establish an autonomous region for them in Iraq, safe from Saddam Hussein's brutality.


However, the United States also figures prominently in that historical memory of betrayal. In 1975, after the C.I.A. worked with Iran to supply weapons to the Kurds to fight Mr. Hussein's regime, Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger abruptly pulled the plug after a reconciliation between Tehran and Baghdad.

"In 1975, the same betrayal of the Kurds happened," said Hasos Hard, a Kurdish journalist in northern Iraq, when asked about his reaction to the American support for Turkey's Syria incursion.

Many analysts, though, as well as Syrian Kurdish fighters on the ground, say the accusations of betrayal are not quite right - at least not yet.

There is little sign that the United States has abandoned the Syrian Kurds. American officials have worked to negotiate a truce on the ground between the rebels backed by Turkey and the Kurdish militia, known as the People?s Protection Units, and fighting has calmed in recent days.

But many Kurds say they now see the writing on the wall and worry that once the Islamic State is driven from its capital in the Syrian city of Raqqa, the United States will sell them out.
At this point, there is no rhetoric that is too harsh for this 'man' and the administration. His every action hurts us and sadly hurts the world around us. The time for kindness is over. However we have to get him out, save for actually hurting or killing him, must be done.
 

Trunkage

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The issue is that no one else is being the Kurds friend either. The Kurds just have to take whatever punishment the world gives out because no one actually cares. And, whenever the US is back in the area, the Kurds will have to follow them

It's a pity. But the US has never been interested in other countries having democracy, being far more willing to set up Authoritarian puppets they can 'control.' The Kurds definitely dont fit that bill. Egalitarian, protective and treating minorities like the Yazidi very well is not a good resume
 

tstorm823

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trunkage said:
The issue is that no one else is being the Kurds friend either. The Kurds just have to take whatever punishment the world gives out because no one actually cares. And, whenever the US is back in the area, the Kurds will have to follow them

It's a pity. But the US has never been interested in other countries having democracy, being far more willing to set up Authoritarian puppets they can 'control.' The Kurds definitely dont fit that bill. Egalitarian, protective and treating minorities like the Yazidi very well is not a good resume
Unless you're suggesting that America should take land from Turkey and Syria and create a new state out of it to give to the Kurds, there is no state where democracy would protect them.
 

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tstorm823 said:
trunkage said:
The issue is that no one else is being the Kurds friend either. The Kurds just have to take whatever punishment the world gives out because no one actually cares. And, whenever the US is back in the area, the Kurds will have to follow them

It's a pity. But the US has never been interested in other countries having democracy, being far more willing to set up Authoritarian puppets they can 'control.' The Kurds definitely dont fit that bill. Egalitarian, protective and treating minorities like the Yazidi very well is not a good resume
Unless you're suggesting that America should take land from Turkey and Syria and create a new state out of it to give to the Kurds, there is no state where democracy would protect them.
Rojava exists right now (though it may not for much longer).

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2019/10/rojava-syria-erdogan-turkey-united-states-military
 

Satinavian

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The other Nato powers should delist the PKK and other Kurdish organisations as terrorists, proclaim the wish to establish a Kurdish nation in northern Syria and guarantee protection from Turkey, That would be the morally right thing to so.

But politically that is impossible. It would destroy the Nato, make Turkey an enemy, risk another war in the area, is fishy in international law because the territory still actually belongs to Syria and it does literelly not help anyone beside the Kurds. So it won't happen.
 

Agema

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Satinavian said:
But politically that is impossible. It would destroy the Nato, make Turkey an enemy, risk another war in the area, is fishy in international law because the territory still actually belongs to Syria and it does literelly not help anyone beside the Kurds. So it won't happen.
Arguably, a Kurdish state carved out Iraq and Syria could be good for Turkey. Once they have their own state, unhappy Turkish Kurds can just emigrate instead of blow up Turks.
 

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Agema said:
Arguably, a Kurdish state carved out Iraq and Syria could be good for Turkey. Once they have their own state, unhappy Turkish Kurds can just emigrate instead of blow up Turks.
I'd buy that. I don't think Iraq and Syria would though. Also probably not Iran either, just out of spite. Carving out new nations in the Middle East as a home for a persecuted minority has a questionable track record.
 

Agema

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tstorm823 said:
I'd buy that. I don't think Iraq and Syria would though. Also probably not Iran either, just out of spite. Carving out new nations in the Middle East as a home for a persecuted minority has a questionable track record.
There certainly one particular case where that stands out as true.

However, some Middle Eastern states are multi-ethnic/cultural as a legacy of post-colonial rule and nation-building hasn't really come to full fruition. The Iraqi Kurds are hugely autonomous as it is. Syria perhaps was in a better position in terms of national identity, but is now a basket case, and will be for decades. The main concern against Kurdish independence (aside from Turkish resistance) I suspect is that a post-Kurdish Iraq ("Kexit"?) would be a significantly weaker state and also increasingly dominated by the Shia majority, and numerous major players regional and national want Iraq to be a buffer state against Iran.

Honestly though, the main problem is that this seems to be another cack-handed foreign policy job where Trump has abruptly made a major policy shift without anyone - including his allies and more importantly large tracts of his own government - having an idea it was coming.
 

Agema

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Lulz. It's totally the treatment that comment deserves.
 

Nedoras

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Agema said:


Lulz. It's totally the treatment that comment deserves.
I'd like to point out that the article he was referring to when he made that comment, was written by Kurt Schlicter. Kurt is well known for three things. One being his opinion pieces where he has very big brained takes such as these: https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2019/09/09/climate-change-is-a-hoax-n2552748
https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2019/05/30/students-heres-a-plan-to-solve-your-debt-problem-you-wont-like-it-n2546947
https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2019/04/29/work-hard-play-by-the-rules-and-be-hated-by-liberals-n2545491
https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2019/05/23/i-hate-science-because-all-conservatives-hate-science-n2546714

Another being his various books, one of which is literally just Turner Diaries fan fiction. And lastly, that he constantly mentions how he has a hot wife that he has sex with all the time. Totally normal guy that is definitely not insecure. 10/10 source. Nice to know I'm not the only one who knows he's a thing though. He's such a fucking caricature that he comes across as parody. He's a top notch crank.
 

Kwak

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IceForce said:
Is this another thing we can blame Trump for?
Definitely, the trail of cause and effect is clear to follow for all.
 

Agema

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Nedoras said:
I'd like to point out that the article he was referring to when he made that comment, was written by Kurt Schlicter
Yes. It's slightly worrying that the president reaches for the most crass arguments from the worst kooks to be found amongst the media.

IceForce said:
Is this another thing we can blame Trump for?
Let's face it, there is no way on the planet Erdogan would dare act without US assent on this matter. So yes, it is about Trump. Still, we don't know yet whether it will turn out badly (apart of course for the poor Kurds - betrayed again).

The obvious concern is that this is almost completely unplanned policy. Trump had a call with one of his autocratic mates and impulsively just agreed to Erdogan, and screw all the hard work and advice from relevant governmental agencies and departments. Not that I necessarily think things have tended to turn out so well with the full force of governmental deliberation with regard to the Middle East, but impulsive promises from a wilfully ignorant, lazy, overconfident, autocratically-inclined president who thinks its his right to make stuff up on the spot is likely to be a significant step down.

The fact Trump instantly performed a volte-face and threatened to obliterate Turkey's economy tells us plenty that he probably realised that he'd thoroughly shit the bed and given Erdogan far too much.
 

Trunkage

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Agema said:
Nedoras said:
I'd like to point out that the article he was referring to when he made that comment, was written by Kurt Schlicter
Yes. It's slightly worrying that the president reaches for the most crass arguments from the worst kooks to be found amongst the media.

IceForce said:
Is this another thing we can blame Trump for?
Let's face it, there is no way on the planet Erdogan would dare act without US assent on this matter. So yes, it is about Trump. Still, we don't know yet whether it will turn out badly (apart of course for the poor Kurds - betrayed again).

The obvious concern is that this is almost completely unplanned policy. Trump had a call with one of his autocratic mates and impulsively just agreed to Erdogan, and screw all the hard work and advice from relevant governmental agencies and departments. Not that I necessarily think things have tended to turn out so well with the full force of governmental deliberation with regard to the Middle East, but impulsive promises from a wilfully ignorant, lazy, overconfident, autocratically-inclined president who thinks its his right to make stuff up on the spot is likely to be a significant step down.

The fact Trump instantly performed a volte-face and threatened to obliterate Turkey's economy tells us plenty that he probably realised that he'd thoroughly shit the bed and given Erdogan far too much.
Also Erdogan has threatened to release its almost 4 million refugees into Europe if anyone tries to stop him. Because everyone pretending they've taken enough refugees is laughable. Even Germany, who did take a million but that's very little in the grand scheme of things

I'd point out that he might be doing Russians bidding on this one. He did nothing to Saudi Arabia after Khashoggi. He was never going to do anything here
 

Agema

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And I've just noticed this gobsmacker of a comment:

When asked about the risk of ISIS fighters captured by the Kurds getting free, Trump said it wouldn't be a problem because "they're going to be escaping to Europe".

Holy fuck. That orange wanker has basically just said even if he and Erdogan end up undoing all the hard work containing ISIS (and which has cost the Kurds over 10,000 lives - but hey, it's not like they helped in Normandy in 1944), it's fine because they'll just pop off and potentially murder Europeans. So much for the transatlantic alliance.
 
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Agema said:
And I've just noticed this gobsmacker of a comment:

When asked about the risk of ISIS fighters captured by the Kurds getting free, Trump said it wouldn't be a problem because "they're going to be escaping to Europe".

Holy fuck. That orange wanker has basically just said even if he and Erdogan end up undoing all the hard work containing ISIS (and which has cost the Kurds over 10,000 lives - but hey, it's not like they helped in Normandy in 1944), it's fine because they'll just pop off and potentially murder Europeans. So much for the transatlantic alliance.
Let's follow up on this, shall we?

The war against ISIS was all a waste. [https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/14/middleeast/isis-battle-wasted-gains-intl/index.html]

In September, ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi urged his followers in an audio message to breach the walls of the prisons and the camps and free their brethren. And so it has come to pass. As Turkey presses its offensive, the SDF will be compelled to pull its men and women away from guarding the prisons and camps and send them to the front lines.

In al-Hol camp, where thousands of ISIS family members are being held, already the inmates are putting on the pressure. An SDF official told CNN Friday the women there were burning tents, and attacking SDF personnel and administrative offices. Weapons have been smuggled into the camp, where radical inhabitants have continued to enforce the draconian laws of the former so-called caliphate, meting out sometimes lethal punishment to those who fall out of line.

And help is nearby.

Pentagon officials have said for months now that thousands of ISIS fighters and sympathizers are on the loose across Syria and Iraq. They carry out regular hit-and-run attacks. They're down, but not out.

ISIS has long excelled at exploiting power vacuums, and now one is opening up.

The war against ISIS, joined by then-US President Barack Obama and carried on by his successor President Donald Trump, was all for naught.

We saw, as the battle for Baghouz raged, US, British and French special forces manning artillery and mortar positions around the town as US-led anti-ISIS coalition warplanes hit targets on the ground. We saw US, British and French intelligence officers screening and interrogating everyone who left Baghouz.

SDF fighters, including Kurds, Arabs and Christians, pressed forward on the ground, braving booby traps, car bombs and suicide bombers. The SDF says more than 11,000 of its soldiers?men and women?died in the war.

And now, in less than a week, all that was achieved, and sacrificed, all the lives and treasure expended, has come undone.

Turkish forces, alongside their Syrian allies, are pummeling the SDF. And the US is announcing it will undertake a "deliberate withdrawal from northeast Syria" because, in the words of US Defense Secretary Mark Esper, American forces are "likely caught between two opposing, advancing armies and it's a very untenable situation."

That one of those "two opposing armies" fought side-by-side with the US seems to matter little to the US and its President who, since last December, has seemed in an awful hurry to pull US forces out of Syria.

And, of course, the term "deliberate withdrawal" is government-speak for something much simpler: betrayal and retreat.
I think this is the moment where there is no turning back for me that Trump is not only an enemy to the United States, but the World entire. There was a time before that I could accept that he was just a severely incompetent boob. That time has passed.
 
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I do wonder if there's any possible variant of Middle East's future that doesn't result in Kurds getting shafted over and over again.
 
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ObsidianJones said:
Agema said:
And I've just noticed this gobsmacker of a comment:

When asked about the risk of ISIS fighters captured by the Kurds getting free, Trump said it wouldn't be a problem because "they're going to be escaping to Europe".

Holy fuck. That orange wanker has basically just said even if he and Erdogan end up undoing all the hard work containing ISIS (and which has cost the Kurds over 10,000 lives - but hey, it's not like they helped in Normandy in 1944), it's fine because they'll just pop off and potentially murder Europeans. So much for the transatlantic alliance.
Let's follow up on this, shall we?

The war against ISIS was all a waste. [https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/14/middleeast/isis-battle-wasted-gains-intl/index.html]

In September, ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi urged his followers in an audio message to breach the walls of the prisons and the camps and free their brethren. And so it has come to pass. As Turkey presses its offensive, the SDF will be compelled to pull its men and women away from guarding the prisons and camps and send them to the front lines.

In al-Hol camp, where thousands of ISIS family members are being held, already the inmates are putting on the pressure. An SDF official told CNN Friday the women there were burning tents, and attacking SDF personnel and administrative offices. Weapons have been smuggled into the camp, where radical inhabitants have continued to enforce the draconian laws of the former so-called caliphate, meting out sometimes lethal punishment to those who fall out of line.

And help is nearby.

Pentagon officials have said for months now that thousands of ISIS fighters and sympathizers are on the loose across Syria and Iraq. They carry out regular hit-and-run attacks. They're down, but not out.

ISIS has long excelled at exploiting power vacuums, and now one is opening up.

The war against ISIS, joined by then-US President Barack Obama and carried on by his successor President Donald Trump, was all for naught.

We saw, as the battle for Baghouz raged, US, British and French special forces manning artillery and mortar positions around the town as US-led anti-ISIS coalition warplanes hit targets on the ground. We saw US, British and French intelligence officers screening and interrogating everyone who left Baghouz.

SDF fighters, including Kurds, Arabs and Christians, pressed forward on the ground, braving booby traps, car bombs and suicide bombers. The SDF says more than 11,000 of its soldiers?men and women?died in the war.

And now, in less than a week, all that was achieved, and sacrificed, all the lives and treasure expended, has come undone.

Turkish forces, alongside their Syrian allies, are pummeling the SDF. And the US is announcing it will undertake a "deliberate withdrawal from northeast Syria" because, in the words of US Defense Secretary Mark Esper, American forces are "likely caught between two opposing, advancing armies and it's a very untenable situation."

That one of those "two opposing armies" fought side-by-side with the US seems to matter little to the US and its President who, since last December, has seemed in an awful hurry to pull US forces out of Syria.

And, of course, the term "deliberate withdrawal" is government-speak for something much simpler: betrayal and retreat.
I think this is the moment where there is no turning back for me that Trump is not only an enemy to the United States, but the World entire. There was a time before that I could accept that he was just a severely incompetent boob. That time has passed.
Let's not pretend another terrorist attack wouldn't help Trump's campaign too. They need their voter base re-energized with fear of the other and the top place being occupied by white supremacist attacks can't be doing any favours for their dreaded narrative.
 
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Majestic Manatee said:
Let's not pretend another terrorist attack wouldn't help Trump's campaign too. They need their voter base re-energized with fear of the other and the top place being occupied by white supremacist attacks can't be doing any favours for their dreaded narrative.
As with everything, there are layers.

An Illegal Latino Immigrant puts up Stephen Paddock [https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/las-vegas-shooting/vegas-gunman-stephen-paddock-inspired-criminal-father-s-reputation-n964066] numbers? There's nothing that will stop his cult from doing everything they can to vote him back in, and try to make him their king.

But I think even the cult would waiver if they found out the next 9/11 was made up of exclusively ISIS fighters who were held under lock and key, but were let loose because the Orange One decided to cater to his secret masters and pull out of our commitment to our allies.
 

Kwak

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Jesus this man is a sickening worm.

In defending his decision to remove US troops from northern Syria, President Donald Trump echoed talking points from Turkish officials, suggesting that Kurdish forces might be purposely allowing ISIS detainees to escape camps and prisons.

"Kurds may be releasing some to get us involved," Trump tweeted Monday morning.
...
Due to the attack by Turkish forces on the SDF in northern Syrian, the Kurdish-led militia has had to remove troops guarding prisons and camps holding ISIS fighters and those displaced by the fight against ISIS.
"We already did not have professional jails or professional prisons to keep those prisoners in," SDF spokesman Mustafa Bali said last week. "The Turkish invasion to our region is going to leave a huge space, because we are forced to pull out some of our troops from the prisons and from the [displaced people] camps to the border to protect our people."
Turkish warplanes and artillery have also repeatedly struck several detention camps, allowing the escape of several ISIS prisoners and 785 people connected to ISIS fighters, according to Kurdish authorities. Turkish President Recep Tyayyip Erdogan suggested the reports were "disinformation," designed to "provoke the US and Europe."
If there are any republicans in government who actually believe in reality anymore, they must remove this semi-sentient cancer.