Russian's Going All Out On Georgia
- Thread starter John Galt
- Start date
Putin is rebuilding the Russian Empire (aka Soviet Union) and keeping NATO as far as possible from his borders. Russia wants to dominate the former Soviet Union states, and Georgia is very pro-West and has been attempting to join NATO. The Germans sandbagged on the application, or else Georgia would already have been part of NATO. I imagine there are some very thankful NATO troops right now; I don't know if Russia would have invaded if NATO had accepted Georgia as a member.
Georgia didn't "try to seize the area", it was made part of Georgia when the Soviet Union broke up. Georgia's problem is that most of the inhabitants are ethnically Russian and hate the Georgians, so they've been engaging in low-level guerrilla warfare against the Georgian government. Georgia also has the same problem on its other end with Abkhazia; Georgia was conquered by Russia in the 19th century and the Soviet Union tried to eliminate national identities in favor of identity as a citizen of the Soviet Union, so boundaries are difficult to agree upon. In this case geography determined the allocation of territory; North Ossetia and South Ossetia are separated by the spine of the Caucasus Mountains, and travel between the two is difficult to impossible in winter.
What's scary is that Russia is doing roughly the same things that Hitler did - arming and supporting ethnic Russian separatist groups within bordering countries, then invading or threatening invasion to protect those ethnic Russians against the inevitable government crack-down. Putin backed down in Ukraine; I don't think he'll back down in Georgia, a much smaller and much closer (relative to NATO countries) nation until he has toppled the Georgia government and either absorbed Georgia, or installed a puppet regime there. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania should be very worried.
Georgia didn't "try to seize the area", it was made part of Georgia when the Soviet Union broke up. Georgia's problem is that most of the inhabitants are ethnically Russian and hate the Georgians, so they've been engaging in low-level guerrilla warfare against the Georgian government. Georgia also has the same problem on its other end with Abkhazia; Georgia was conquered by Russia in the 19th century and the Soviet Union tried to eliminate national identities in favor of identity as a citizen of the Soviet Union, so boundaries are difficult to agree upon. In this case geography determined the allocation of territory; North Ossetia and South Ossetia are separated by the spine of the Caucasus Mountains, and travel between the two is difficult to impossible in winter.
What's scary is that Russia is doing roughly the same things that Hitler did - arming and supporting ethnic Russian separatist groups within bordering countries, then invading or threatening invasion to protect those ethnic Russians against the inevitable government crack-down. Putin backed down in Ukraine; I don't think he'll back down in Georgia, a much smaller and much closer (relative to NATO countries) nation until he has toppled the Georgia government and either absorbed Georgia, or installed a puppet regime there. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania should be very worried.
If you're speaking about presidential election in 2004 then I don't see why Russia should've interfered. Ukraine is pretty poor country with broken economy and fucked clowns as authorities. Kickstarting it will cost a real shitload of money and it won't pay much.werepossum said:
Georgian government will succesfully topple itself by going on with bombing citizens in South Osetia.
Trenin does a good job of explaining Saakashvili's actions in this little article:
http://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/needtoknow/2008/08/georgias_risky_move.html
(Warning: Washington Post blog comments are kind of a cesspit; read at your own peril.)
-- Alex
http://newsweek.washingtonpost.com/postglobal/needtoknow/2008/08/georgias_risky_move.html
(Warning: Washington Post blog comments are kind of a cesspit; read at your own peril.)
-- Alex
The South Ossetians have been shelling and attacking Georgian villages for a year or so. Some of the military sites have long considered this area to be a hot spot because of Russia arming the rebels with artillery and heavy mortars. As to whether or not the Ossetians are ethnically Russian, that was Putin's justification for sending Russian troops - that Georgia was killing ethnic Russians. I agree that they don't fit a typical Slavic pattern or speak a Slavic language, but that has been Russia's line, and for some time Russia has been issuing ID and passports to South Ossetians as Russian citizens by virtue of being ethnic Russians.Darth Mobius said:
As for why Georgia is fighting to retain a province that is mostly inimical to them, look at the geography and history. While Georgia was a powerful kingdom in the Middle Ages, for the last two centuries it's been repeatedly invaded and mostly ruled by Russia in one form or another. The mountains between the two countries provide a pretty good barrier, but only if Russia is on the other side. If Russia owns South Ossetia, then it begins any invasion within 200 km of Tbilisi, thus cutting Georgia in half. In such a situation, Georgia pretty much becomes a satellite of Russia, as the sword at their throat keeps them hostage to Russia's desires. Beyond that very real threat, look at Russia's own brutal suppression of the very similar Chechnyan rebellion. No country wants to lose territory, and the thought of creating a bulge of hostile Ossetians in the center of their territory can't be very appealing either.
And correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe Ossetians are still a slight majority Christian, with Muslims only a close second.
EDIT: I should add that the original fighting began with the break-up of the Soviet Union, with each former country trying to grab as much territory as possible and each ethnic group trying to establish its own country. My "for a year or so" comment applies specifically to the fighting following the breaching of the last cease fire agreement, which followed the 2004/2005 fighting.
My mistake, you are correct.werepossum said:
I don't see the claim of "ethnic" Russianness being fielded widely. The most common explanation for the passports spouted by the Russian government passports seems to be that their own government wasn't internationally recognized so Russia "had to" give them passports.
-- Alex
Russia gave them passports and refers to them as Russians.Alex_P said:
Make no mistake, Russia means for South Ossetia to be part of Russia, not part of Ossetia. You don't see Russia giving North Ossetia its freedom, do you? The 152mm howitzers firing on Georgian villages - first observed during South Ossetia's Independence Parade in 2005 - were provided by Russia specifically for that purpose, and when Russia takes South Ossetia it will be as part of Russia, not as a free country and certainly not combined with a free North Ossetia. It's no secret that Georgia first began seeking NATO membership earlier that year, and Russia has repeatedly stated that Georgia will not be allowed to join NATO. Russia supplies dissidents with heavy weapons and provides them with Russian citizenship, dissidents attack government forces and terrorize ethnic Georgians in their provinces, Georgian government steps in and attacks dissidents, Russia steps to protect its newly minted citizens and puts Russian troops in the contested provinces, dissidents now enjoy a greater flow of heavy weapons and step up attacks, Georgia attacks back, and Russia invades.
None of this is a surprise if you've been paying attention.
Umm, I don't disagree with your overall point. The only one I've seen talking about passports, however, is Lavrov. Putin and Medvedev don't seem to care about them at all. Unless they've somehow changed their tune today, I think it's safe to say that the passport thing is pretty trivial.werepossum said:
Russia doesn't need any baloney about ethnic brotherhood or passports as a pretext. All of Saturday, Russia Today (a state-funded English-language Russian news program) was going straight to this headline: "GENOCIDE." They're pretty much sticking to that one as long as they can.
-- Alex
Georgia's military spending has increased because Russia's has increased - looked at Russian military spending lately? Georgia has been desperately trying to get into NATO for the last five years, and sending troops to every NATO adventure it's allowed in to, because Russia has been obvious in its arming of Abkhazian and Ossetian separatists. Russia means to have Georgia, not just South Ossetia and Abkhazia. All the heavy weapons delivered to South Ossetia and Abkhazia are toward that end, and once Russia owns them it will be far more draconian in repressing these separatists than has Georgia. Even if Russia is stopped from taking all of Georgia this time - and I don't think it will be - the pattern will continue, separatists attacking ethnic Georgians under an umbrella of Russian protection - until another Russian incursion takes the remainder.j-e-f-f-e-r-s said:
And really, is Abkhazia or South Ossetia more deserving of independence than Chechnya? Russia fights to retain one and fights to acquire the other for the same purpose - rebuilding the Russian empire. When Russia gives North Ossetia its independence I'll believe in its good intentions. Until then, I'll trust my own observations and analysis and those of others whose judgment I trust.
It's more like Ukrainian people got the President we deserve. We didn't want lot of crap that he did, clearly not giving a shit about people's opinion.shakeslol said:
I love The Escapist. Everyone on here except for me seems to be very in tune with world politics.