In all liklihood the decision on Schwarzenegger v. EMA (Now Brown v. EMA) will be coming out this Thursday morning around 9:45 AM. Lets have some predictions on how the case will turn out.
For a brief refresher on the case see Extra Credits. [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/videos/view/extra-credits/1961-Free-Speech]
My Prediction, 6-3 or 7-2 for the EMA striking down the California law. Breyer and Alito dissenting in either case, Breyer seemed the most sympathetic to the law in oral arguments. Alito also seemed somewhat skeptical and Alito dissented from Stevens (the case striking down a federal law prohibiting distribution of videos displaying cruelty to animals) suggesting his sympathy to a wider understanding of speech that does not deserve first amendment protection.
The real wildcard is Chief Justice Roberts, he seemed somewhat skeptical of the EMA argument and I could easily see him dissenting however if he does vote with the majority he will do so because then he can write the decision. If Roberts is in the majority (7-2 decision), he will write for the majority and make the scope of the decision very limited potentially allowing for a similar law with less ambiguity to come along later. In that case expect a broader concurrence from Scalia. If Roberts votes with the minority (6-3 decision) Scalia will likely write the majority opinion, in either scenario I predict Breyer will write the dissenting opinion.
Anyone else care to guess.
For a brief refresher on the case see Extra Credits. [http://www.escapistmagazine.com/videos/view/extra-credits/1961-Free-Speech]
My Prediction, 6-3 or 7-2 for the EMA striking down the California law. Breyer and Alito dissenting in either case, Breyer seemed the most sympathetic to the law in oral arguments. Alito also seemed somewhat skeptical and Alito dissented from Stevens (the case striking down a federal law prohibiting distribution of videos displaying cruelty to animals) suggesting his sympathy to a wider understanding of speech that does not deserve first amendment protection.
The real wildcard is Chief Justice Roberts, he seemed somewhat skeptical of the EMA argument and I could easily see him dissenting however if he does vote with the majority he will do so because then he can write the decision. If Roberts is in the majority (7-2 decision), he will write for the majority and make the scope of the decision very limited potentially allowing for a similar law with less ambiguity to come along later. In that case expect a broader concurrence from Scalia. If Roberts votes with the minority (6-3 decision) Scalia will likely write the majority opinion, in either scenario I predict Breyer will write the dissenting opinion.
Anyone else care to guess.
