SETI Predicts Alien Life Should Be Discovered In 20 Years

Carnagath

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Therumancer said:
In theory any race that actually advanced to the point of being able to unify their planet, and build a civilization advanced enough to engage in space travel, probably developed morally as well in order to keep it's own civilization functional.
Morality is a human concept that shouldn't necessarily be extended to aliens. The only truly certain constant among all living things in the universe would have to be evolution through natural selection. I really can't conceive advanced intelligence without it, regardless of its origins. Natural selection is not a peaceful process. It's a constant arms race between different species and between them and their environment that lasts eternally. I can very easily imagine alien intelligence that has no concept of morality or peace, because actually such things are unnatural the way life works. To me, an approach that sees war as a "challenge", an opportunity to check for chinks in your evolutionary armor, is more in line with natural selection than "peace, love and understanding". I'd completely understand an alien species annihilating us just because "that's what they do".

I'll leave the rest of your post alone, because you are Therumancer, so of course it devolves into facepalm-worthy justifications of the genocide of native Americans, calling other nations "theocracies" when you live in a country that has elected officials that believe the Earth is a few thousand years old, and calling for unification, of course, under the American culture, because everyone else is clearly inferior.
 

Therumancer

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Carnagath said:
Therumancer said:
In theory any race that actually advanced to the point of being able to unify their planet, and build a civilization advanced enough to engage in space travel, probably developed morally as well in order to keep it's own civilization functional.
Morality is a human concept that shouldn't necessarily be extended to aliens. The only truly certain constant among all living things in the universe would have to be evolution through natural selection. I really can't conceive advanced intelligence without it, regardless of its origins. Natural selection is not a peaceful process. It's a constant arms race between different species and between them and their environment that lasts eternally. I can very easily imagine alien intelligence that has no concept of morality or peace, because actually such things are unnatural the way life works. To me, an approach that sees war as a "challenge", an opportunity to check for chinks in your evolutionary armor, is more in line with natural selection than "peace, love and understanding". I'd completely understand an alien species annihilating us just because "that's what they do".

I'll leave the rest of your post alone, because you are Therumancer, so of course it devolves into facepalm-worthy justifications of the genocide of native Americans, calling other nations "theocracies" when you live in a country that has elected officials that believe the Earth is a few thousand years old, and calling for unification, of course, under the American culture, because everyone else is clearly inferior.
In such cases just leave it alone instead of throwing out an insulting rant.

That said, I'm not sure where you got "Genocide Of Native Americans" from, I did mention Social Darwinism, and mentioned some parts of internal Native American politicking and compared it to "Deep Space 9". I worked for two different tribes over the years. One of the big divides when they get together in tribal organizations largely comes down between the Americanized Indians, and those who resist Americanization. A divide which also in many cases leads to arguments between the rich tribes against the poor ones, although that's not exclusively how the lines are drawn. It comes down to thinks like embracing education, and business opportunities, and doing things like say opening Casinos, building science/farming complexs for things like shrimping and the like, and otherwise working with society, as opposed to trying to draw a clear line between "Indian Land" and "American Land" and resisting any kind of development or official cooperation. While they ran into some hard times, at one point Foxwoods was the world's largest Casino (in general, not just among Indian Casinos) and Mohegan Sun was #3. The economy kind of hurt them, but to put it bluntly during they heydays (when I worked there) they were making unprecedented amounts of bank, and acted as hosts for a lot of meetings between tribes and such where they set policies for festivals and such. It's not something you see publically, but yeah, there are a lot of Indians who will argue that being conquered was probably the best possible thing that could have happened to them, they having come further in the little over two centuries the US has been around than they did for thousands of years beforehand. Of course your also talking about guys saying this to shut down other arguments, and who could probably roll cigarettes with $100 bills if they wanted to. I've listened to some of the bickering, and read a number of periodicals/tribal newsletters over the years. Besides your taking that out of context, the point was that let's say earth is conquered and we're decimated, but those who assimilate into an alien civilization now have space ships, magical-seeming medical technology, and all kinds of other things, and what's more are able to spread all over the galaxy so in a couple of centuries in this situation there will probably be more humans in absolute terms than died during the conquest, it's not an EXACT analogy mind you.

I also didn't focus on it, but I wanted to point out that if you've actually read my rants, you'd know that when it comes to the basic idea of world unity, a lot of cultures could in theory do it. American principles however are the ones that are likely to lead to the least internal conflict and give everyone a chance to succeed. The systems inherent in China and Russia for example could both also unify the planet and keep things functioning but would also create highly oppressive regimes, not to mention bring intristic racism along with them. Even if the US doesn't live up to it's ideals all the time, in principle it would allow all kinds of people to co-exist to some extent. At the end of the day though it's about principles, in a true global unity the US would itself also dissolve along with other nations, as opposed to everyone becoming an American. That however went beyond the point of this argument. When it came to theocracies the point was that guys like The Ayatollah and his government are so far gone as to not even properly acknowledge those they do not like. The US has it's religious people in power, but we're not a religious state, nor do they have the influence or authority to rally people towards holy wars, and those who actually wind up in authority tend to be fairly rational. The point here was more or less that if you were an Alien diplomat and your here to discuss intergrating earth into some equivalent of The Federation, having some dude with millions upon millions of followers declaring holy war on you and refusing to acknowledge you as anything but some supernatural spirit of evil isn't exactly going to fill you with confidence. Ideally for such relations (again within the context of this discussion) Earth would need to have one government, and the ability to appoint a representative to be able to quickly and easily speak for Earth as a whole. Someone who can make agreements for trade, diplomacy, or even potentially war if we're asked to send
a fleet, or conversely need to ask for military aid. You can't have hundreds of bickering voices all with their own territories, tying up anything earth does in a UN type deadlock. It's bad enough to have one government bureaucracy to deal with (and there would be one) not hundreds of them plus another one on top of that. Seriously, if Aliens arrived tomorrow and wanted to uplift humanity, who would get to make that decision? If it went before the UN we'd still be debating it decades from now, and inevitably some countries could come down hardcore on either side of the question and that would lead to conflict no matter which way the vote went officially.

Ahh well, the point here is that it's fine you don't want to discuss some of this stuff, but don't drop a slam on me for no reason. At any rate for anyone who might be paying attention (other than you) there is a bit more clarification.
 

Hubbl3

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http://hanson.gmu.edu/greatfilter.html I found this a very interesting read about the possibilities of alien life.
 

Lono Shrugged

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BigTuk said:
20 Years.. which is about long enough for everyone to forget they ever made this prediction.
Exactly, I don't trust anyone who says they can prove something that there is no actual concrete evidence for in a arbitrary timeline. It stinks of "faith"
 

Fanghawk

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Quantum Glass said:
Ok, seriously?

Click the source. Click it. The /very first/ paragraph points out that this doesn't mean we'll find alien life in the next twenty years, or two hundred years, or ever. It's saying that we have plans for better technology that we'll start using in two decades. Alien life will be discoverable in twenty years, not discovered.

Reading the article you're referencing is, like, Journalism 101. If even that.
thaluikhain said:
Not on this site, apparently, intentionally misleading content and especially headlines are quite popular.
Sorry, did I say something to the extent of "We're finding aliens in 20 years, you guys"?

SETI's spokesman made a prediction that they can find aliens in twenty years with the right tools. That's the story as laid out in the source article, and it's one I've tried to lay out for discussion without taking a position. If you read it again, I hope you'll see this is the case.
 

Thaluikhain

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Fanghawk said:
Sorry, did I say something to the extent of "We're finding aliens in 20 years, you guys"?
Yes. The headline is "SETI Predicts Alien Life Should Be Discovered In 20 Years".

That is very different from predicting they'll have the technology to examine a significant number of star systems for alien life within 20 years.
 

Vareoth

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They are not talking about intelligent life are they now? Certainly the chances of finding life in the shape of micro-organisms or primitive plant life should be much better.

Intelligent life would be the last thing I'd think about when talking about extraterrestrial discoveries.
 

sky14kemea

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evilnancyreagan said:
I'm sorry but, moderators can you please explain why JessesDale's post received an infraction? I would certainly consider that post helpful, enlightening and on topic.
NoeL said:
He was given an infraction for advertising. While the links were on topic, advertising products on the site is against the rules.

I'll edit it into his post to avoid confusion for anyone else.
 

O maestre

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This is too funny, basically what they are saying is that they will discover alien life.... if they get a bunch of money for our funding. That is fantastic, when did SETI become politicians.


Kudos to the escapist teams for some actual news, and I mean that in a non sarcastic way. I am often in the crowd that points out how some articles should have never been published, so it is only fair that I also praise when praise is due... as if you cared anyway.
 

Fanghawk

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thaluikhain said:
Fanghawk said:
Sorry, did I say something to the extent of "We're finding aliens in 20 years, you guys"?
Yes. The headline is "SETI Predicts Alien Life Should Be Discovered In 20 Years".

That is very different from predicting they'll have the technology to examine a significant number of star systems for alien life within 20 years.
Ahhhhh you know what, I think I see the problem here; the wrong link ended up in the Source section; same website, related topic, but different speakers. That is totally my bad and I apologize. It's now fixed.

That aside, if you refer to the actual quotes from this hearing, SETI is much more optimistic.

Actual SETI quotes:

"It's unproven whether there is any life beyond Earth ... I think that situation is going to change within everyone's lifetime in this room."

"If this is the only planet on which not only life, but intelligent life, has arisen, that would be very unusual"

"I suspect that the universe is teeming with microbial life" - this last one is Dan Werthimer, director of SETI
 

Fanghawk

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O maestre said:
Kudos to the escapist teams for some actual news, and I mean that in a non sarcastic way. I am often in the crowd that points out how some articles should have never been published, so it is only fair that I also praise when praise is due... as if you cared anyway.
We do, actually! Thank you!
 

Thaluikhain

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BigTuk said:
You want to know the real kicker...the real kicker. Even if they find a signal.. at this point there's a good chance that signal would be so old that it likely would be meaningless. We're talking as in the signal was sent around the time we figured out how to rub two sticks together..
It would prove that life evolved elsewhere in the universe, that our existence isn't a fluke. There are plenty of implications of that.

BigTuk said:
Also it assumes another rather misleading thing. SETI is based on the logic that other civilizations would share our tech-tree I.e they'd be using radio wave communications. There is a very good chance that they might not. I mean a society of telepathic species would have no need for phones or radios would they? A celphone seems rather a step backwards when your species can stay a few dozen kilometers a way and just think: 'Honey remember to pick up the milk and extra diapers.'
Well, depends how your telepathy works.

But, quite possibly, yes, but then again, we don't know for sure. Even if you don't produce radio waves for talking to each other, you'd likely (maybe) produce lots of mechanical electronic emissions.
 

O maestre

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BigTuk said:
Also it assumes another rather misleading thing. SETI is based on the logic that other civilizations would share our tech-tree I.e they'd be using radio wave communications. There is a very good chance that they might not. I mean a society of telepathic species would have no need for phones or radios would they? A celphone seems rather a step backwards when your species can stay a few dozen kilometers a way and just think: 'Honey remember to pick up the milk and extra diapers.'
I never understood this, it is not as if we humans can nativly undestand information in signals, we use machines to send and interpret the information in the signal.

If we polled how many signals contain information meant for humans, against information meant for machines, we would find that most of the on air 'dialogue' was made by machines.
Take a plane for example, the components in each wing are doing a lot more communication than the pilot is to the ground.

Assuming that there won't be any radio signals, is also assuming that they don't have any concept of automation, or electromagnetic technology. Which in turn would also imply a lack of analogue signal manipulation, or a complete lack of electronic technology.

Which perhaps cold attribute to a civilization being less advanced than us, but I find it very hard to comprehend in regads to a civilization with WW2 technology.
Even telepaths would need machines.
 

lacktheknack

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Halyah said:
lacktheknack said:
Sorry, it's not gonna happen.

I'm not sure why we think that there MUST be life other than us out there. The sheer improbability of successful abiogenesis leading to successful reproduction leading to evolutionarily sustaining mutation vastly outweighs the number of opportunities there are. Yeah, there's billions of star systems in our galaxy, but not many of them have planets that would sustain water-based carbon life forms, which are the only life forms we know to work (other than the occasional arsenic curiosity).

Abiogenesis may not have happened elsewhere (people are so vague on how it works that I think they're just covering up that they DON'T know how it works).

Abiogenesis may happen, but that doesn't mean that the generated lifeforms even figured out how to reproduce.

Even if they figured out how to reproduce, they may not have had a high enough mutation rate to survive their first environmental change.

AND EVEN IF this ludicrously lucky species somehow starts along an evolutionary path, that most certainly doesn't mean that they're intelligent. Hell, on Earth, of the billions(?) of species that we've cycled through, only one got intelligent enough to figure out how to throw signals into space.

And if they haven't done that, then we're stuck with locating them via Method Two.

...which likely won't work if it turns out that non-carbon lifeforms are possible, and they're non-carbon.
There's just one issue with what you've said. Space is big. Bigger than our minds can comprehend at our current level of knowledge. There are billions of star systems in our galaxy yes, but there's also billions of galaxies. At that point the statistically improbable stops being improbable and practically becomes a guarantee. Of course you could theorize that -we- are that one place where the improbable happened, but I have my doubts about that. What you should be more focused on is if said life has evolved anywhere near where we are and thats a lot less likely. Even if it did and even if it managed to evolve into intelligent life like ours, the chances of them being ahead of us technologically is a pure guess.

So personally I'd say that sure life is out there, but is it close enough for us to have the ghost of a chance to find it out?
Well, I was mostly refuting the "Twenty Years" thing, so it still works. :p

Also, while space is inconceivably big, life occuring is also inconceivably unlikely. I think that the unlikliness of life overwhelms the quintillions of planetary opportunities, but that's for a different thread.
 

KingDragonlord

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Well, Kurzweil, operating on the law of accelerating returns noted when 1% of the human genome had been mapped in 7 years that we were halfway done. And sure enough, thanks to acceleration in computer technologies, the remaining 99% was done in 7 more years.

So if we've mapped 1% of the star systems we need to and they think increased computer power is going to help that, then maybe we really are only 20 years away.
 

Adeptus Aspartem

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ObsidianJones said:
Going into what you guys are talking about, even if they come in peace... we're talking about an alien species. With Bacteria we have no chance of getting used to. Hell, our own germs get meaner in space [http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/tech/science/space/2007-09-24-germs-space-meaner_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip]. What are their germs going to do to us?
Or to be more specific: What would our respective germs do to each other. Answer: Kill a big part of each species probably.
At least those who'd survive could claim they won in the classic game of "survival of the fittest", heh :/
 

Quantum Glass

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Fanghawk said:
Ahhhhh you know what, I think I see the problem here; the wrong link ended up in the Source section; same website, related topic, but different speakers. That is totally my bad and I apologize. It's now fixed.

That aside, if you refer to the actual quotes from this hearing, SETI is much more optimistic.

Actual SETI quotes:

"It's unproven whether there is any life beyond Earth ... I think that situation is going to change within everyone's lifetime in this room."

"If this is the only planet on which not only life, but intelligent life, has arisen, that would be very unusual"

"I suspect that the universe is teeming with microbial life" - this last one is Dan Werthimer, director of SETI
Oh. Sorry, mate. I should've realised this was the case; heck, I didn't even look for the Shostak quote in the original article.

That was rude of me. Mea culpa.