Tabby's Star: Sometimes, It Might Actually Be Aliens

Jadak

New member
Nov 4, 2008
2,136
0
0
rcs619 said:
I know they're supposed to point a bunch of radio telescopes at it, but that's not a given either. Even further assuming they ever used radios, it really comes down to when they invented them due to the time-lag involved. If they didn't have radios before 1480 years ago, there won't be any transmissions out this far for us to hear.
They already did last I heard, nothing.

Besides that, the exact opposite of what you're saying could also be true.

We're talking about hypothetical aliens advanced to the point that they're building stellar scale super stuff

For what you're saying, they'd have to have moved from a radio using civilization no later than 1480 years prior to having this super advanced project progressed to the point we're speculating on now. That could be possible, we don't really have a frame of reference on how long it should take to get to that point for even ourselves, let alone another species that could advance at an entirely different rate.

I'd think it just as likely to be the other way around. That such a species could have progressed to something else well before starting their project and we'll have missed the opportunity to detect such things by centuries or millenia (if they ever used it at all)
 

KyuubiNoKitsune-Hime

Lolita Style, The Best Style!
Jan 12, 2010
2,151
0
0
RJ 17 said:
KyuubiNoKitsune-Hime said:
RJ 17 said:
Snap.
Can't say I really buy into your theory, either.

I highly doubt that technology will ever reach a point in which it utterly stamps out one of the most basic and primal instincts - mating - that a species (that we know of) has. One of the entire points of getting off our little rock in the first place is to prevent overpopulation. Any colony founded by us - or aliens - wouldn't just be seven families plopping down onto a planet and setting up some houses. In order for it to even be reasonable it would have to start with a sustainable population in the first place. At that point - more than ever - there would be a need to reproduce. Assuming that we're going with your scenario of people apparently just not wanting to have children anymore is true, then I can only imagine that incentives would be provided to encourage people to mate.

This is all ignoring the fact that I still refuse to believe a species would ever get so advanced that it would go extinct due to a desiccated sex drive. That's why I still say it's the Great Filter.

But you wanna know something neat? The Great Filter theory assumes that there is a step - either one we've passed or some unknown step in our future advancement - in the evolution of a species that makes expansion beyond the home planet improbable. Even if you are correct, who's to say "a species surpassing the crash of its sex drive" isn't that future step that serves as the Filter? :p
No, but at current we can't move humans off Earth faster than we populate the planet. Any off world colonies, including space colonies, are going to have thousands to millions of people to start.

Also it's not about a loss of sex drive, but improvement in birth control. When you look at our species, especially when it comes to equalizing the sexes, that means women have less of a incentive to reproduce, not more, because becoming pregnant is seen as the "end" of a woman's career in the work place.

Now it's possible the inconvenience of having children might be our filter, but it might just be what slows our growth enough for us not to need to expand as much. Again improved quality of life, longer lifespans, and career options for women remove a lot of incentive to reproduce, as in to get pregnant and carry a child to term. That doesn't mean that sex stops, it won't even stop reproduction, just slow it down. So my thought is that advancement slows growth. It may come to the point where most children come from artificial wombs. Still that makes me think that's why we haven't made contact, interstellar expansion is a pretty slow process, so most species never even meet.
 

Zontar

Mad Max 2019
Feb 18, 2013
4,931
0
0
KyuubiNoKitsune-Hime said:
It's possible but unlikely, it's more attractive and imperative to tap into the physics possibilities of traveling faster than the speed of light if we discover FTL is possible. The reason being that it makes it easier to gather necessary resources and expand on interplanetary and inter stellar scales. That's both on an economic and social level. Communication really is a secondary concern because it's not as profitable. We also are making assumptions about how much energy FTL travel takes, while it may take a lot less energy than we assume to achieve warp speeds, or move ships into subspace, or hyperspace. Expansion and profitability of extraterrestrial exploitation far outweigh the imperatives of FTL communication.
While developing FTL communication is less profitable then developing FTL travel, it's also much, much less costly. In fact just for a structure like a Dyson Swarm or a Ringworld FTL communication would be massively useful within the confines of a single solar system given that it reduces the delay of signals from anywhere from minutes to hours depending on where the two points communicating are within a system.

Being able to send a telegraphic message over the course of a few minutes across an ocean isn't as profitable as being able to travel across the ocean in a few minutes, but it is much easier to achieve and is still very much worth the cost.

Besides that if they could do it that way, it'd be far more cost effective to terraform and colonize extra-stellar worlds than to build a Dyson Swarm, or ringworld. Building such a mega structure means it's more economical to remain in one's own home system, than it is to leave the system.
We don't know that that is the only thing they are doing. It's quite possible they are doing both at once and that due to development their species' sphere of influence has simply not reached us yet. Staying within a single system is an assured means of extinction as one way or another the time will come when something wipes out all life within it.

The possibility that they might just have very similar concepts of life to us. They might consider us too valuable from a scientific standpoint to destroy. On the other hand the energy to wipe us out in a timely fashion might be too large an expense to justify doing it. The project has to be economical for it to be an option, it's very likely that on a time and energy scale it's not. Also if they're building a Dyson Swarm or ringworld, they probably need every bit of mass they can get their hands on. The necessity of resources would potentially dissuade them.
The mass and energy necessary to eliminate us wouldn't actually be even a millionth of a percentage rounded up for what would need to be the daily production for something like a Dyson Swarm to be viable. Take a piece of refined metal the size of a space shuttle and shoot it out of a canon towards Earth at 0.3c or above (something that isn't very energy intensive when it's just shooting a slug when compared to the energy they'd have) and do it a few more times in case calculations where off by a millionth of a degree. There, in two thousand years the problem will solve itself and continued survival is assured.

Also time dilation is a hindrance because of the amount time slows down the closer to light speed you get. While it might be 80 years aboard ship it'd be thousands in real space, by which point we could easily already be extinct. That would mean the resources used on such an endeavor would be absolutely wasted, especially in terms of energy, not a cost easy to justify.
Actually it's a win-win scenario as in situation 1 where we are still alive when they get here they can eliminate us due to being technologically ahead of us, and in situation 2 where we are dead they can use it as an opportunity to continue their species by having a part of it come to another system and colonize the location, increasing their odds of survival in the long run. In fact, for all we know this situation is exactly that: a colony building a Dyson Swarm around another world, not their home system.

Well if they're building a Dyson Swarm, or a Ringworld then it's possible they do know a trick around it, it's possible they've already prepared for the possibility of something coming in at 30% of the light speed.

It's equally possible that it's more like they'd never be able to detect a species not building on their scale before it detected them. Which means they have to prepare for potential hostilities with extreme caution, or wipe life off every potentially life bearing planet in the galaxy.

Also there are no guarantees that if they move to wipe out an alien species, that said alien species is already trying to wipe them out much the same way. That means they're already doomed because of the scale of construction they've committed themselves to.
It's also incredibly unlikely that the project would be what the entirety of their civilization is dedicating itself to. All successful species, when making massive plans for the future, would logically have a backup plan in case things fail. Not only is it possible this is one of countless projects being done, it's far more likely that that is the case then that it is the only project they as a civilization are working on.

It would first require them being aware of us. By building a Dyson Swarm, or Ringworld, they've basically lit a beacon that will allow other civilizations to launch attacks they can't stop, before they can discover those civilizations. Which means it's imminently possible that prior experience with other civilizations has convinced them they're safe. Because otherwise building a Dyson Swarm or a ringworld is far too risky a thing to ever justify.
This is making the assumption they have any other experience with alien life forms, or that they simply did not believe the project to be one where that was too much of a risk. We don't know what, if this is a Dyson Swarm, the level of dedication for the civilization in question this actually amounts to. For all we know this could be one of thousands of already completed Swarms where its destruction would, while leading to material loose, not actually spell an end to their species.

I'm aware, but it's making a huge assumption based on how we act, extraterrestrials may have evolved in an environment where they were herbivore herd animals with no natural predators.
While that is always possible, it's incredibly unlikely. I don't remember who said it, but one person whose quote I came across put it like this: you don't need intelligence to hunt down a blade of grass. Intelligence as we have seen it in species is directly proportional to their predatory nature. Intelligence is very energy intensive (to the point where one of the answers to the Fermi Paradox is that intelligence simply isn't common enough as an evolutionary advantage) taking up a massive part of our daily energy intake (often around 40%) for something that, for a herbivore, would simply offer no evolutionary advantage. Intelligence required a cycle of energy intake needing to be higher, so more meat was needed, thus more intelligence was needed, thus more meat for that energy, and so on until we became who we are. Vegans may hate it, but we simply never would have reached where we are without eating meat as a significant (and at the end of the day most important) part of our daily diet.
 

RJ 17

The Sound of Silence
Nov 27, 2011
8,687
0
0
KyuubiNoKitsune-Hime said:
Also it's not about a loss of sex drive, but improvement in birth control. When you look at our species, especially when it comes to equalizing the sexes, that means women have less of a incentive to reproduce, not more, because becoming pregnant is seen as the "end" of a woman's career in the work place.
If that's the case, then I'd imagine governments would begin issuing incentives to reproduce if low birthrates become a problem.

Beyond that: we're talking about "why we haven't seen any aliens out there yet", not "why hasn't/won't mankind expand." You're viewing alien societies through the lens of human culture in making the assumption that alien societies would function as ours do. Their females - assuming they have them - could be utterly subservient to the males. The males could be utterly subservient to the females.

Now it's possible the inconvenience of having children might be our filter, but it might just be what slows our growth enough for us not to need to expand as much. Again improved quality of life, longer lifespans, and career options for women remove a lot of incentive to reproduce, as in to get pregnant and carry a child to term. That doesn't mean that sex stops, it won't even stop reproduction, just slow it down. So my thought is that advancement slows growth. It may come to the point where most children come from artificial wombs. Still that makes me think that's why we haven't made contact, interstellar expansion is a pretty slow process, so most species never even meet.
And what happens when technology reaches the point where having a child is no longer an inconvenience to some who's career oriented? As technology improves, it'll undoubtedly become easier for one to carry out the duties of their job. Furthermore, as technology improves, it will undoubtedly become easier to care for and raise a child. Finally, while more and more women are becoming career oriented and that's great, there's still plenty of women out there who consider "being a mom" as being the only "job" they want and are perfectly happy with that. I doubt that mentality will ever fade out.

No matter how you cut it, I still don't see a decline in birthrate ever becoming such a detrimental issue as to prevent a species from expanding and colonizing other planets...let alone being a primary factor in said species' extinction. No...if we're going out, my money says it's going to be with some sort of bang as opposed to some sort of whimper.
 

truckspond

New member
Oct 26, 2013
403
0
0
I always say that the surest sign that intelligent life exists beyond earth is that none of it has tried to contact us. Besides which, even if aliens are responsible, they would be seeing us at the year 968 AD - almost a millenium before the Industrial revolution. As such they would assume that even if they did see us and send a message, we would be unable to hear it
 

happyninja42

Elite Member
Legacy
May 13, 2010
8,577
2,986
118
KyuubiNoKitsune-Hime said:
mtarzaim02 said:
The real quetion is: when we'll get there, because we will at one point, will we find a fatty russian stuck into a teleporter loop? Or just a bunch of dumpsters on wheels, strangely eager to exterminate us?
Montgomery "Scotty" Scott was the one got was in a transporter loop, he put himself there to save himself along with the rest of the crew of the ship, USS Apollo I think it was, but I'm too lazy to go back and re-watch the episode, or even check Memory Alpha. Still that's all beside the point: Scotty is a Scotsman, not a Russian. Pavel Checkov was the Russian, and as we all know his career, just like the career of the actor who played him, never really amounted to anything.
Hey, he had a great run on Babylon 5 as the creepy Psi Corp Telepath Bester. If you missed his performance in that, I'd suggest checking it out. He's delightfully evil in that role.
 

The_Great_Galendo

New member
Sep 14, 2012
186
0
0
I can't help but wish it is aliens. In a moment I'm going to read the comments, and then, if those aren't enough to dissuade me, do a Google search. But for one glorious, glorious minute, I'm going to sit here and think that the answer's aliens.
 

infohippie

New member
Oct 1, 2009
2,369
0
0
silverhawk100 said:
The dimming we've seen over the past century has by no means been consistent, which doesn't jive with our ideas about building a Dyson sphere, for one.
Sorry to be the grammar police, but the word you're looking for is jibe. Stars can't perform jazz or swing music.
Well, technically they can't come about by steering away from the wind, either. Nor do they have a boom to snap around suddenly. Yes, I know there is more than one meaning, this one was amusing to me.
 

Dalisclock

Making lemons combustible again
Legacy
Escapist +
Feb 9, 2008
11,286
7,082
118
A Barrel In the Marketplace
Country
Eagleland
Gender
Male
The_Great_Galendo said:
I can't help but wish it is aliens. In a moment I'm going to read the comments, and then, if those aren't enough to dissuade me, do a Google search. But for one glorious, glorious minute, I'm going to sit here and think that the answer's aliens.
Aliens who may or may not want to murder us for existing, apparently.

And that's before they watch our TV(at which point they'd have a valid cassus belli).
 

Czann

New member
Jan 22, 2014
317
0
0
Ladies and Gentlemen.

We've found our first alien civilization. And they are much, much more advanced than us.

At least that's my hope. Aliens is the least creepy theory for a star to be dimming over time.
 

Smooth Operator

New member
Oct 5, 2010
8,162
0
0
Well let's hope it's aliens since all the other wibbly wobbly meteor stuff is just plain boring.
And the thing that would be really cool if it was aliens is that we are observing their undertakings from 1500 years ago, we are literally tuning into their history.
 

Neurotic Void Melody

Bound to escape
Legacy
Jul 15, 2013
4,953
6
13
Was not expecting so many strongly believed assumptions based purely on paranoid human ideals here in the comments. Entertaining somewhat though. I hope they aren't watching too closely over here, they might start to think we're a lost cause. Though they would only see us 1500 years ago. Baby, we've different now, we can prove it to you...just don't judge us by our political structures! Ok, they may have a method of faster observation, if they have a dyson sphere. That is a fair amount of progress that we can only dream of. They may have survived tenfold our existence with almost garunteed security for their future survival. We are not so secure, stupid humans. Oops, rambled again.
 

Dalisclock

Making lemons combustible again
Legacy
Escapist +
Feb 9, 2008
11,286
7,082
118
A Barrel In the Marketplace
Country
Eagleland
Gender
Male
Xsjadoblayde said:
Was not expecting so many strongly believed assumptions based purely on paranoid human ideals here in the comments. Entertaining somewhat though. I hope they aren't watching too closely over here, they might start to think we're a lost cause. Though they would only see us 1500 years ago. Baby, we've different now, we can prove it to you...just don't judge us by our political structures! Ok, they may have a method of faster observation, if they have a dyson sphere. That is a fair amount of progress that we can only dream of. They may have survived tenfold our existence with almost garunteed security for their future survival. We are not so secure, stupid humans. Oops, rambled again.
Really, even if they wanted to come murder us specifically, because of seeing us 1500 years ago(let alone right now), it would likely take them at least 1500 years to do it.

A lot can happen in 1500 years. Hell, they'll probably show up, find a bunch of medieval assholes poking each other with sticks in the glowing ruins of a radioactive wasteland and realize they'd made the trip for nothing. And then won't they feel stupid?
 

Neurotic Void Melody

Bound to escape
Legacy
Jul 15, 2013
4,953
6
13
Dalisclock said:
Really, even if they wanted to come murder us specifically, because of seeing us 1500 years ago(let alone right now), it would likely take them at least 1500 years to do it.

A lot can happen in 1500 years. Hell, they'll probably show up, find a bunch of medieval assholes poking each other with sticks in the glowing ruins of a radioactive wasteland and realize they'd made the trip for nothing. And then won't they feel stupid?
They may also be in communication with further out civilizations that we have no way of observing. Or they may be part of a larger civilization temporarily setting up on a suitable planet for more energy harvesting while we are merely some indigenous cave species they are hoping not to disturb either through an ethical code or plain orders. It would make sense that they could factor in light travel speed and a planet's species evolution rate to see that we are far from any capable threat to anything other than ourselves. *Hangs head in shame*