The AAA Gaming Industry Is Going To Crash
- Thread starter Puzzlenaut
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And so another prophet comes bringing tidings of doom and woe, what else is new?
Like so many others before you come making these claims but you do not tell whats causing it and how it might be stopped. You just bring your predictions of the future and nothing else.
Like so many others before you come making these claims but you do not tell whats causing it and how it might be stopped. You just bring your predictions of the future and nothing else.
Yup.Daystar Clarion said:
To answer the question of what makes Gaming different to the rest of the economy... escapism. I'm not saying that that is enough to weather the storm without a hitch, but as the outside world begins to suck more and more, the entertainment industry sees a swell in business.
CAPTCHA: 'been there'. Indeed.
Everyone seems to think E3 has been a failure this year. Even with a new hardware launch for Nintendo, very few are impressed.
I think people are getting tired of the same ol same ol and also tired of what they perceive as gimmicks. I also think that as consoles become more and more PC like and PC's get cheaper and cheaper, consoles have very little to offer that people can't get from a PC.
I missed Nintendo's show but apparently the only interesting thing was Pikmin 3 and even then people thought the graphics looked dated.
I think people are getting tired of the same ol same ol and also tired of what they perceive as gimmicks. I also think that as consoles become more and more PC like and PC's get cheaper and cheaper, consoles have very little to offer that people can't get from a PC.
I missed Nintendo's show but apparently the only interesting thing was Pikmin 3 and even then people thought the graphics looked dated.
You mean the music industry that's been forced to re-invent itself in a form that is now more supportive of old and upcoming musicians alike, and infinitely better value to the consumer than it ever was when only major publishers could pull the strings?j-e-f-f-e-r-s said:
The music industry is in a better condition from an artist/consumer point of view than ever before; the only people really suffering from the billions in losses that you mention are the companies who spent decades extorting the consumer and paying many of their performers a pittance for their work.
If the same thing happens to companies like EA, then I'm all in favour of a AAA 'crash'.
If we're speaking purely AAA market then I doubt there'll be a full 'crash' per se. The AAA publishers and developers will evolve and adapt to the demands of the market. Look at EA's attempts to steal a slice of the 'indie' pie (effectiveness not withstanding). Even the proliferation of F2P games are evidence of shifting business practices. Kickstarter warrants a mention too (although not in a AAA sense). Point being that changes are already in progress.
Yes, there's going to be market saturation of whatever the craze of the time is. But that's more an inevitability of the market and of businesses than a symptom of the AAA market crashing. Yes, those that can't make the change might be in for some hard knocks, but I sincerely doubt our current video game market is even still capable of 'crashing' in the same sense as the one in the 80s.
Yes, there's going to be market saturation of whatever the craze of the time is. But that's more an inevitability of the market and of businesses than a symptom of the AAA market crashing. Yes, those that can't make the change might be in for some hard knocks, but I sincerely doubt our current video game market is even still capable of 'crashing' in the same sense as the one in the 80s.
Hmm. Well.
The Japanese Publishers haven't crashed so much as eroded slowly.
And they were dominant at the start of the millennium. Perhaps that's the "death cycle" we're looking at? Will the Western market mirror that? Difficult to say.
The Western (American/Canadian/European) Market in comparison has shown to be a crescendo, starting from about 2003-04 to present, with the Japanese share falling slowly, and proportionately (well, to be expected, that's how proportions work. You can't gain 1% without someone else losing 1%, even if the entire market grows empirically)
I don't think the AAA market is going to crash per say...certainly not yet.
There are too many stable avenues of revenue for its biggest members.
However, I can see this scenario happening at a very low probability. The key to look for is consolidation within the pillars of industry. Namely, larger publishers cannibalizing each other and consolidating the actual developers beneath them.
The fewer publishers there are, the more likely one of them is to under perform at some point, and that will result in HUGE slashes to production across the board. And that's before factoring in problems stemming from monopoly; we're already seeing problems from oligopoly springing up.
The Japanese Publishers haven't crashed so much as eroded slowly.
And they were dominant at the start of the millennium. Perhaps that's the "death cycle" we're looking at? Will the Western market mirror that? Difficult to say.
The Western (American/Canadian/European) Market in comparison has shown to be a crescendo, starting from about 2003-04 to present, with the Japanese share falling slowly, and proportionately (well, to be expected, that's how proportions work. You can't gain 1% without someone else losing 1%, even if the entire market grows empirically)
I don't think the AAA market is going to crash per say...certainly not yet.
There are too many stable avenues of revenue for its biggest members.
However, I can see this scenario happening at a very low probability. The key to look for is consolidation within the pillars of industry. Namely, larger publishers cannibalizing each other and consolidating the actual developers beneath them.
The fewer publishers there are, the more likely one of them is to under perform at some point, and that will result in HUGE slashes to production across the board. And that's before factoring in problems stemming from monopoly; we're already seeing problems from oligopoly springing up.
Vault101 said:
If the AAA industry falls, the indie market will take over. We're not screwed yet, we're just adapting.