I asked the top industry analyst (UK) if GAME were going to majorly lose market share from digital distribution and he said not at all. Apparantly a lot of people just prefer to browse an actual shop then a website.
The Future is Still Retail
- Thread starter Shamus Young
- Start date
Even with Steam up and running I still go out to buy L4D and Civ 5. Why? I have space on my shelf that needs filled and 10101001010011111010100111 won't fill up a gap between The Orange Box and Star Wars: Empire at War
I know, right? I mean, I love going back and playing the atari and pc games from when I was a kid. Wait, that isn't true at all, because I haven't managed to keep track of them this entire time. In fact, the latest trips down memory lane have all been via Good old Games or Steam. Did you know you can get EVERY COMMANDER KEEN GAME EVER for 5 dollars? All them, 5 bucks. Downloads in like 20 seconds. Or do you remember where you keep the 19 floppy drives that contain that data? Gosh, I hope they aren't scratched.Nurb said:
If Steam and Id can connive to bring back such an 'ancient' as that without any previous infrastructure, you don't think they'll have a way to keep it alive down the road?
Probably for the first time in my life, I'll have to disagree with Shamus more or less completely. All of the arguments presented in the article are Now arguments, which don't really come across as very "future-proof":
1. There will always be collectors. But how many? Most people will always go for a combination of cheap, familiar and convenient. Digital is already often much more convenient that retail, in most cases it's also cheaper, and the familiarity really is just a question public perception, which is a putty in the two hands of necessity (you want a game, but it doesn't have a retail) and persuasion (advertising).
2. Digital content can be shared, it's just a matter of platform and owner rules. PS3, for example, allows for up to 5 consoles to download content from a single account purchase. Let's not even get into GoG & GamersGate.
3. Completely subjective. How much different is a plastic card from a plastic disc? If you can put a game box with nothing but a plastic disc in it under a tree and consider it a present, a plastic card is barely half a step behind. Inputting serials is, again, a technicality.
4. (3.) I'll go out on a limb here and say that Steam THRIVES on flash discounts and the impulse purchases they create. And nobody gets frostbite or trampled.
5. (4.) Just a matter of time. I think it's pretty clear that people who can both a) afford a console / gaming PC and b) really can't get Internet are already a minority. If they just don't want to -- see point 1. Necessity and persuasion.
1. There will always be collectors. But how many? Most people will always go for a combination of cheap, familiar and convenient. Digital is already often much more convenient that retail, in most cases it's also cheaper, and the familiarity really is just a question public perception, which is a putty in the two hands of necessity (you want a game, but it doesn't have a retail) and persuasion (advertising).
2. Digital content can be shared, it's just a matter of platform and owner rules. PS3, for example, allows for up to 5 consoles to download content from a single account purchase. Let's not even get into GoG & GamersGate.
3. Completely subjective. How much different is a plastic card from a plastic disc? If you can put a game box with nothing but a plastic disc in it under a tree and consider it a present, a plastic card is barely half a step behind. Inputting serials is, again, a technicality.
4. (3.) I'll go out on a limb here and say that Steam THRIVES on flash discounts and the impulse purchases they create. And nobody gets frostbite or trampled.
5. (4.) Just a matter of time. I think it's pretty clear that people who can both a) afford a console / gaming PC and b) really can't get Internet are already a minority. If they just don't want to -- see point 1. Necessity and persuasion.
1.) I would have thought that collectors are too small of a minority to care about? What about all those LD collectors I don't think publishers/distributors would worry about such a small group.
2.) Pretty good point, but you could always get your friend to come over. Alternatively 10gigs to download a game to a friends computer/console won't be too much of an issue in 10 years time.
3.) I can't imagine kids complaining about getting what are essentially gift cards for Christmas. The grandma part makes sense, will be another 100 years when grandmas have worked out digital distribution.
3.) It's a bit difficult to stop impulse buying, but I know a lot of people who impulse buy on steam (5$ L4D2 anyone?).
4.) These percentages will only increase over time. Especially considering bandwidth prices continue to fall; but yes, there is always going to be a certain amount of people that don't want to hook their machine up to the internet for various reasons.
You only need to look at your local retailer to see how few CDs they stock, or try to find a store that sells only CDs, such a thing is limited to boutique stores. It's only a matter of time until the same thing happens with other forms of digital media. The Future is still Retail, for about 10 or so years.
2.) Pretty good point, but you could always get your friend to come over. Alternatively 10gigs to download a game to a friends computer/console won't be too much of an issue in 10 years time.
3.) I can't imagine kids complaining about getting what are essentially gift cards for Christmas. The grandma part makes sense, will be another 100 years when grandmas have worked out digital distribution.
3.) It's a bit difficult to stop impulse buying, but I know a lot of people who impulse buy on steam (5$ L4D2 anyone?).
4.) These percentages will only increase over time. Especially considering bandwidth prices continue to fall; but yes, there is always going to be a certain amount of people that don't want to hook their machine up to the internet for various reasons.
You only need to look at your local retailer to see how few CDs they stock, or try to find a store that sells only CDs, such a thing is limited to boutique stores. It's only a matter of time until the same thing happens with other forms of digital media. The Future is still Retail, for about 10 or so years.
Interesting read as usual shamus. As soon as I figured out the beauty of digital distribution over the last couple years, I hopped on the "retail is dead" bandwagon myself. One thing I'm particularly interested in reading your take on is the trend towards boxed games requiring connection to digital distribution networks, a la the recent Civilization V.Shamus Young said:
Personally, removing the need to drive to the store has exponentially increased my impulse buys, and I appreciate it when Steam provides me with a popup about Machinarium being on mega sale. I am generally against DRM in principle, but the style of Steam, the speed of their servers, and the ability to digitally install on any computer-- even if I go to visit my brother for a week and he wants to try Portal-- really makes me a happy. Last, my favorite part of digital distribution networks, is streamlining of the official patch media. Mod service isn't quite there yet, but thats coming too. (if you havn't tried Minerva yet, look it up on steam).
On the other hand, a lot of the Civ grognards hurl profanity at the evil malware virus evil evil that Steam represents, and are offended at having to connect to this pitiful "service." I mean, I get it, but I tend to consider their viewpoint as just a little off the deep end.
I disagree, I'm a game collector, I don't need physical copies: for example I own every game on Battle.net, for the most part I took my Starcraft and Diablo CD-Keys and had to input them, but now I have digital copies I can download them anytime, anywhere there is a internet connection. Beats carrying around CDs/DVDs everywhere.
Go to account based system makes it even easier for visitors. Want to show off a new game to your friend at a friends house? Just login to your account. Game Consoles are almost there, OnLive makes it so you don't even have to download anything(besides <5mb client) to start playing.
Gift Giving, well it just going to be normal if everything is digital, plus some people are actually happier using card to pick out games then having someone buy them a bad game.
90% of my impulse buying comes from my browsing DLC and game libraries on XBL, so that argument is not one.
The digital divide in the US is getting smaller every day and if you can't have access to something, you learn to live without it. It not big enough to be a factor in a digital only.
Go to account based system makes it even easier for visitors. Want to show off a new game to your friend at a friends house? Just login to your account. Game Consoles are almost there, OnLive makes it so you don't even have to download anything(besides <5mb client) to start playing.
Gift Giving, well it just going to be normal if everything is digital, plus some people are actually happier using card to pick out games then having someone buy them a bad game.
90% of my impulse buying comes from my browsing DLC and game libraries on XBL, so that argument is not one.
The digital divide in the US is getting smaller every day and if you can't have access to something, you learn to live without it. It not big enough to be a factor in a digital only.
Um no. System Shock 2 required 250 MBs of Hard Disk space, while 4 years later KOTOR required more than 4 GBs. That is roughly a 1600% increase.Zechnophobe said:
I am willing to bet that the increase in Hard Disk space requirements of games has been logarithmic is scale. Compression or no.
Until you can compress stupidly large games like Dragon Age down to something more reasonable like 4 GB (or less) don't talk about compression because it is currently irrelevant.
The only one I can truly vouch for is point 4. As for the rest, I think it's sort of naive of you. I'm sure little Timmy will love getting 1500 MS points for Christmas. No difference between that and buying him a Best Buy gift card.
He isn't saying the future is retail, he is just saying that retail will never completely go away.Zechnophobe said:
To use your metaphor, it's just like how black-and-white t.v. will never go away. The Andy Griffith show still plays on primetime (in black and white) and Citizen Kane will be remembered as one of the most influential movies of all time for as long as humans are around. (it also is in black and white.)
Your arguments seem to be that retail will endure because some buyers will always want it so, and that game developers can't afford the loss of retail. Nobody can prove you wrong in this, because you're right, some buyers will always prefer a physical product to a digital one. In summary your arguments seem to be in defense of demand for the distribution method.
I feel that ignores the supply side. Even in regards to large ticket items, all businesses operate ultimately on volume, and the volume processed must always be worth the investment. Where enough buyers switch to digital the business of selling games at retail will not be worth the cost of capital. In this scenario, despite the desires of consumers the distribution channel will eventually close.
Given the trend in online shopping, especially the expanding market shares of DRM methods like Steam, this seems like a reasonable induction.
Besides, games purchased over Steam for example, are typically cheaper than games purchased at retail- because it bypasses the physical transportation of goods. Retailers have not yet figured out a way to remain competitive in the same way that Steam does.
When publishers distribute to retailers, and get the same amount of money per product whether the product is sold digitally or at retail, and digital markets are expanding, how would you argue against the closure of the channel, and making it worth the time for retailers?
I feel that ignores the supply side. Even in regards to large ticket items, all businesses operate ultimately on volume, and the volume processed must always be worth the investment. Where enough buyers switch to digital the business of selling games at retail will not be worth the cost of capital. In this scenario, despite the desires of consumers the distribution channel will eventually close.
Given the trend in online shopping, especially the expanding market shares of DRM methods like Steam, this seems like a reasonable induction.
Besides, games purchased over Steam for example, are typically cheaper than games purchased at retail- because it bypasses the physical transportation of goods. Retailers have not yet figured out a way to remain competitive in the same way that Steam does.
When publishers distribute to retailers, and get the same amount of money per product whether the product is sold digitally or at retail, and digital markets are expanding, how would you argue against the closure of the channel, and making it worth the time for retailers?
I completely agree with you Shamus. I've said numerous times before, Digital Distribution will never completely overtake Physical Media. They can only compliment each other.
Personally, I'd rue the day if DD ever took a complete stronghold.
That, and I'm probably addicted to the new game smell.
Mmmmmm, plasticy.
Personally, I'd rue the day if DD ever took a complete stronghold.
That, and I'm probably addicted to the new game smell.
Mmmmmm, plasticy.
How many receipts do you have? How much paper is there in signs? How many cards, notelets and memos do you have? How many free newspapers are brought in daily? How many paper cups with paper cooling? How much shredding is still done?Zechnophobe said:
Just because electronic paper has increased exponentially doesn't mean that normal paper hasn't stopped increasing. Not including novels, tissues, magazines, flyers, packaging, post-its, money...
If you don't know how to write, that's another problem entirely. Atrophy.
Which completely contridicts the headline. Stoopid Escapist with their misleading headlines. A more accurate headline would be "Retail Still has a Future".sagacious said:
The advantages to using digital distribution only outweighs the points in the article. From the publishers point of view, it allows them increases margins and kill the second hand games market at a stroke. However it wont happen until the next generation of consoles come on the market.
Hooray for my collector-ish ways helping keep physical retail in the market!
Now tomorrow I will be buying MSP cards... I want ilomilo.
Now tomorrow I will be buying MSP cards... I want ilomilo.
it will go fully digital when everyone will look at games as services and not as products. I know I'm just paraphrasing gabe newell but he knows what drives steam, and it's that it's a good service that does not provide copies of games but licenses for games, like your tv subscription just hypotheticly unlimited. I don't know about consoles, but I can see consoles demand online authentication as well at one point. What I'm saying is that the market can go full digital when the notion that games are services will be commonplace.
Oh man... I actually got Saints Row 2 off of the games on demand service on the xbox 360. Big mistake. I had to delete nearly all of my save files and arcade games, and it took somewhere near 30 hours to download. And it was glitchy as hell. And laggy online. And the loading times were pretty bad.Onyx Oblivion said: