Andy Chalk said:
The real bad news for the industry, if Olson is correct, is that it's not an isolated Call of Duty phenomenon. "We believe big name titles are no longer able to sustain 'fat tails'," he said. "This 'thinning tail' phenomenon is driven by, one, casual gamers leaving the market, two, a steeper pre-sale and up-front curve, and three, cannibalization from the pre-owned market."
Wow. A cheap shot at the used market. How original. Maybe all these idiots in the industry need to learn some basic math. The people that play and like Call of Duty are the ones who are early adopters (okay, so he accounted for this). Since there were more sold at launch then ever before it only stands to reason its staying power is less. They have managed to fully saturate the market. The people who don't want to play Call of Duty aren't hopping on board.
And on the point of Call of Duty, they made it unfair to play online if you didn't buy into the Elite pass. So now being an early adopter isn't being rewarded unless you drop another 50 dollars
after buying the game. I have a friend who bought MW3 since he loved the first two. He hated the imbalance online so much that he sold it within two weeks. He says he may pick it up again when its ten dollars so he can finish single player but has no interest in the multiplayer. Oh... and by the way. This is how the used market can take advantage. Because the game wasn't good enough for the early adopter that liked the series to keep the game. If your games aren't good enough so that people keep them around, then the used market is going to have more copies.
There is another simple fact. The rapidly thinning tail phenomenon this season may have to do with two other (more likely things):
1. There were a ridiculous amount of AAA games that came out within a two-month span last fall. I personally bought 9 of them. I don't have the funds to keep buying games year round. Also, I am still playing through those as well as some PSP titles I bought during the fire sale.
2. Gamers aren't the dumb followers that the publishers hope we are and are finally getting fed up with how the system is treating us poorly. They are finally learning not to buy anything at launch because they can either buy it later for cheaper, or wait a year and get the Cumulative Edition that has everything all in one. Gamers are also insulted by the whole DLC phenomenon that went from the idea of adding value to an older game to stringing customers along.
Oh... and as an aside. The industry is taking a hit this spring because the games coming out this March have disappointed/pissed off a lot of people. Kinect Star Wars isn't quite good enough, Mass Effect has pissed everyone and their dog off, and games like Ninja Gaiden 3 and Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City are just absolutely shitty games that are parts of highly regarded franchises.
