Trump announces withdrawal from WHO

warmachine

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Using WHO as a scapegoat is usually good, considering the target audience, but it leads to the question of what you're going to do about them. Threatening to withhold money until they reform is a good one because you only have to do it in the future and you can define your success. Actually withdrawing means losing national benefit and, more importantly, losing a scapegoat. Trump can't even do distractions properly.
 
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Agema

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Using WHO as a scapegoat is usually good, considering the target audience, but it leads to the question of what you're going to do about them. Threatening to withhold money until they reform is a good one because you only have to do it in the future and you can define your success. Actually withdrawing means losing national benefit and, more importantly, losing a scapegoat. Trump can't even do distractions properly.
Sort of. Unless he can't withdraw, only Congress can.

In which case it's a distraction from his covid-19 incompetence, throws meat at his base who instinctively dislike and distrust international organisations.. and won't even occur. Not only that, but his base won't even blame Trump for it not occurring - they'll blame the Democrats, Congress, the anti-Trump conspiracy, etc.
 

Agema

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I mean, was that ever in question?
Not seriously.

I think it was well accepted all the way back in February that China had dragged its heels a little (even if a long way short of the colossal SARS cover-up), and that the WHO was trying to be friendly and non-accusatory because it deemed that a more likely way to gain compliance. My guess is that they were probably right to do so. China has quite a way with heavy exclusion of nonco-operating entities.
 

lil devils x

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Not seriously.

I think it was well accepted all the way back in February that China had dragged its heels a little (even if a long way short of the colossal SARS cover-up), and that the WHO was trying to be friendly and non-accusatory because it deemed that a more likely way to gain compliance. My guess is that they were probably right to do so. China has quite a way with heavy exclusion of nonco-operating entities.
They have to try to work with China the best they can, otherwise, they get blocked out entirely and would no longer receive the vital data needed from China to help resolve this and protect others. Trump is too stupid to understand the importance of working with China on this as to obtain as many samples as possible of the original strain in order to better address this because Trump doesn't understand science so he dismisses it. This means we need access to data from Guangdong, and hopefully to the bats there as well so we can better understand how this jumped species in the first place and find out how many other similar strains in that region may also have this possibility in order to hopefully prevent future pandemics.
 

lil devils x

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I mean, was that ever in question?
It looks like China did withhold information from the WHO back in January -

The US has been withholding data from WHO as well. We have had cities, counties, and states withholding data that conflicts with their reopening plans so it isn't like China is the only one who has done this. When we have officials refusing to release data, WHO or the CDC cannot receive accurate data.

 

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The US has been withholding data from WHO as well. We have had cities, counties, and states withholding data that conflicts with their reopening plans so it isn't like China is the only one who has done this. When we have officials refusing to release data, WHO or the CDC cannot receive accurate data.

Yes, I’m well aware that China and the US are Other pretty bad. I’m very willing to blame Ji Xinping and Donald Trump. Xinping did hide info and let the virus spread but acted once he couldn’t hide it anymore. Trump has decided not to do much. I’d also blame BoJo and Sweden. At least Sweden sold letting heaps die to save the economy. It’s a stupid plan but generally Swedes backed their play probably because the leader spent his time building up social capital Instead of wasting it on pet projects.
 
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lil devils x

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Yes, I’m well aware that China and the US are Other pretty bad. I’m very willing to blame Ji Xinping and Donald Trump. Xinping did hide info and let the virus spread but acted once he couldn’t hide it anymore. Trump has decided not to do much. I’d also blame BoJo and Sweden. At least Sweden sold letting heaps die to save the economy. It’s a stupid plan but generally Swedes backed their play probably because the leader spent his time building up social capital Instead of wasting it on pet projects.
Oh I completely agree on UK and and Sweden as well. Some of the mindset on this has been terrifying tbh. We have no idea what the long term ramifications of this are yet, The delayed onset of Kawasaki disease symptoms in children worry me about a later in life activation flare up that could prove fatal for adults, but we just do not have enough information to know what the long term risks are but have already allowed so much of the population to be exposed unnecessarily.
 

Eacaraxe

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Not seriously.

I think it was well accepted all the way back in February that China had dragged its heels a little (even if a long way short of the colossal SARS cover-up), and that the WHO was trying to be friendly and non-accusatory because it deemed that a more likely way to gain compliance. My guess is that they were probably right to do so. China has quite a way with heavy exclusion of nonco-operating entities.
That's rather the crux of the issue, isn't it. Is this the fifth or six pandemic that originated in China in the past fifty years, the spread of which at least partially attributable to Chinese opacity and reluctance to participate in international efforts to halt international spread? As you said, this isn't even the first SARS pandemic. The Chinese government has proven itself, repeatedly, an unreliable source and bad-faith actor when it comes to global health.

Personally, I find skepticism at the WHO for being a megaphone for China's talking points very warranted, least for all for the fact this was going on at the same time 35 million+ Chinese citizens were under lockdown, multiple emergency hospitals were being constructed in matters of days, and urban decontamination efforts the likes of which unseen since the Chernobyl incident were being witnessed by the entire world.
 

Agema

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That's rather the crux of the issue, isn't it. Is this the fifth or six pandemic that originated in China in the past fifty years,
Nope.

Although if it were that many, given China has been about a fifth of the world population and un-/underdeveloped for most of those 50, it might not be such a surprise it produced a significant proportion of global diseases.

the spread of which at least partially attributable to Chinese opacity and reluctance to participate in international efforts to halt international spread?
You mean SARS. It's hard to meaningfully pin much more, given how badly developed and/or misrun it was during any prior outbreaks.

Personally, I find skepticism at the WHO for being a megaphone for China's talking points very warranted, least for all for the fact this was going on at the same time 35 million+ Chinese citizens were under lockdown, multiple emergency hospitals were being constructed in matters of days, and urban decontamination efforts the likes of which unseen since the Chernobyl incident were being witnessed by the entire world.
The WHO has a remit of combatting diseases, not fighting other people's political battles for them.

The WHO depends on the co-operation of member states, and with no enforcement powers, it has to bargain from a position of weakness if they are not co-operative. It's job is to get and disseminate data, and it tries to do what it must to get that. Someone can give China a bollocking later, whether for deliberate obstruction and / or incompetence of internal processes.
 

Eacaraxe

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Three flu outbreaks, two SARS outbreaks, that's five.

I'd give credence to giving the Chinese government a break were it only a matter of incidence and lack of development, but that's not the case. This is the Chinese government specifically resisting information-gathering and spreading disinformation, and it's an established pattern. This is just me and my take, but if a country's in the nuclear club they can and should be held to nuclear-age standards of basic information gathering, dissemination, infrastructural management, and organizational competence.

Not that certain other governments in the world meet that standard, least of all the US as I have made abundantly clear.

...given China has been about a fifth of the world population and un-/underdeveloped for most of those 50, it might not be such a surprise it produced a significant proportion of global diseases.
Then it should be leading the world in health care, and research on the origins and spread of infectious diseases, not impeding it.

The WHO has a remit of combatting diseases, not fighting other people's political battles for them.
So, what happens when political motive and vested financial interest directly conflict with their mission statement? Just as the case with any other UN organization.

It's job is to get and disseminate data, and it tries to do what it must to get that. Someone can give China a bollocking later, whether for deliberate obstruction and / or incompetence of internal processes.
A state's willingness to participate, the level of its cooperation, and the veracity of the information provided, is data. And it's incumbent upon the WHO to report that data, so that action -- diplomatic or economic -- might be taken so the WHO can perform its duty in accordance with its mission statement.
 

Agema

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Three flu outbreaks, two SARS outbreaks, that's five.
Not in the last 50 years. The last 'flu pandemic was H1N1 (Mexico), last one before that was in the 60s. There are all sorts of seasonal 'flus, of course.

I'd give credence to giving the Chinese government a break were it only a matter of incidence and lack of development, but that's not the case. This is the Chinese government specifically resisting information-gathering and spreading disinformation, and it's an established pattern. This is just me and my take, but if a country's in the nuclear club they can and should be held to nuclear-age standards of basic information gathering, dissemination, infrastructural management, and organizational competence.

Not that certain other governments in the world meet that standard, least of all the US as I have made abundantly clear.
I'd argue developing nukes is easier than having efficient, complex, public health systems. The reason lots of countries have complex public health systems but not nukes is that public health systems are useful to them and nukes aren't.

Chinese governance processes, to my admittedly non-expert understanding, leave a lot to be desired. There's a considerable amount of officials throughout the system with the power, inclination and lack of oversight to massage figures.

Then it should be leading the world in health care, and research on the origins and spread of infectious diseases, not impeding it.
Sure, and I guess Liberia should have eight of the world's largest pharmaceutical firms, too.

So, what happens when political motive and vested financial interest directly conflict with their mission statement? Just as the case with any other UN organization.
How is it in the financial interest of the WHO to risk offending its biggest donor, and overseeing a failure that may adversely affect it's entire membership?

A state's willingness to participate, the level of its cooperation, and the veracity of the information provided, is data.
Of a sort, yes. But not necessarily the data the WHO urgently needs at a certain place and time. Much like people in a building with a gas leak need to be a lot more concerned about how much gas there and what to do about it than finding out which technician last checked the gas main.
 

Eacaraxe

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Not in the last 50 years. The last 'flu pandemic was H1N1 (Mexico), last one before that was in the 60s. There are all sorts of seasonal 'flus, of course.
The 1997 H3N2 outbreak originated in China as did the H5N1 outbreak of 2003.

I'd argue developing nukes is easier than having efficient, complex, public health systems. The reason lots of countries have complex public health systems but not nukes is that public health systems are useful to them and nukes aren't.
We're not talking about having efficient, complex public health systems in accordance with 21st Century standards. Note I said "nuclear age". That, bare minimum, is 1950's standards, and that's not just about health care systems per se but rather the capacity and willingness of a government to gather, compile, analyze, and share information, least of all about potentially-global health risks.

The United States and Soviet Union were capable of communicating and sharing research, data, samples, and experimental findings to combat and globally eradicate polio, smack dab in the middle of the age of brinkmanship. China damn sure ought be capable of at least admitting the existence of a highly-infectious respiratory infection about which they knew for two months before it broke containment and spread to other countries.

Sure, and I guess Liberia should have eight of the world's largest pharmaceutical firms, too.
When Liberia has the second largest national GDP in the world which accounts for 15% of global GDP, we can have a conversation about Liberia.

And Liberia still had a prompter, more organizationally competent, response to the 2014 ebola outbreak than China did COVID-19, and maintained transparency and accountability while participating internationally and requesting aid.

How is it in the financial interest of the WHO to risk offending its biggest donor, and overseeing a failure that may adversely affect it's entire membership?
Well that's rather a good question and I suppose we're about to find out, won't we.

Of a sort, yes. But not necessarily the data the WHO urgently needs at a certain place and time. Much like people in a building with a gas leak need to be a lot more concerned about how much gas there and what to do about it than finding out which technician last checked the gas main.
No, that's exactly the data the WHO needs most of all. Much like people in a building with a gas leak need to be a lot more concerned about the person telling them there's nothing wrong, that they should act as normal, and who won't let them leave, than they do about how much gas there is and where.
 

Buyetyen

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Well that's rather a good question and I suppose we're about to find out, won't we.
So your accusation of corruption was entirely speculative?

No, that's exactly the data the WHO needs most of all. Much like people in a building with a gas leak need to be a lot more concerned about the person telling them there's nothing wrong, that they should act as normal, and who won't let them leave, than they do about how much gas there is and where.
Pretty sure the virus has no stake in China's transparency and the analogy has gotten away from you. By no means were the WHO telling everyone that there was nothing to worry about, that was Trump. Even though they couldn't force China to be more open with their data, they took what they could get and made the best projections and models they could accounting for this problem. I'm not sure how exactly you think spending their time and money doing the job of a diplomatic or law enforcement agency is a better way for the WHO to accomplish their job than actually doing their job.
 

Trunkage

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So your accusation of corruption was entirely speculative?



Pretty sure the virus has no stake in China's transparency and the analogy has gotten away from you. By no means were the WHO telling everyone that there was nothing to worry about, that was Trump. Even though they couldn't force China to be more open with their data, they took what they could get and made the best projections and models they could accounting for this problem. I'm not sure how exactly you think spending their time and money doing the job of a diplomatic or law enforcement agency is a better way for the WHO to accomplish their job than actually doing their job.
WHO was giving bad advice in January due to bad intel/ not knowing enough about the virus.

Here’s what is different. WHO changed their advice In February once facts showed their advice was wrong. Trump kept the same advice because... he can’t admit he’s wrong? IDK, it’s not like the WHO really admitted they were wrong. They just were willing to change when new facts emerged. Trump could have just done that too.

I can understand Trump being wrong at the start as we didn’t have enough info, but he continually didn’t update people or policies based on new facts. And I can’t explain thisaway other than.. owning the libs or being so arrogant he thinks he can cure anything
 

Agema

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The 1997 H3N2 outbreak originated in China as did the H5N1 outbreak of 2003.
They are not conventionally viewed as pandemics.

The United States and Soviet Union were capable of communicating and sharing research, data, samples, and experimental findings to combat and globally eradicate polio, smack dab in the middle of the age of brinkmanship. China damn sure ought be capable of at least admitting the existence of a highly-infectious respiratory infection about which they knew for two months before it broke containment and spread to other countries.
I think this is making a lot of assumptions, with the benefit of hindsight, about how easy it is to recognise a new disease, its epidemiology, etc.

When Liberia has the second largest national GDP in the world which accounts for 15% of global GDP, we can have a conversation about Liberia.
GDP/capita is a more useful measure of a country's level of development.

No, that's exactly the data the WHO needs most of all. Much like people in a building with a gas leak need to be a lot more concerned about the person telling them there's nothing wrong, that they should act as normal, and who won't let them leave, than they do about how much gas there is and where.
The WHO already knows something's wrong. It's in their own reports that they know China's not giving them all the information they need. Their job is to get China to pass along more data.
 

Eacaraxe

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They are not conventionally viewed as pandemics.
Neither was COVID-19 despite having spread to a geographical area larger than Europe, and directly impacting a population greater in number than Europe or North America, until it actually impacted Europe and North America. Strange feat for a designation with no clear line of definition other than geographical range and population impacted. Don't kid yourself, public health especially on the international level is thoroughly politicized.

I think this is making a lot of assumptions, with the benefit of hindsight, about how easy it is to recognise a new disease, its epidemiology, etc.
Well I mean, this isn't as if this is the exact scenario that had been warned about by public health authorities across the planet for nearly twenty years or anything. Or that we now know Chinese officials were well aware the Wuhan outbreak was due to a novel coronavirus strain since November, and not just replicated its performance during the 2002 outbreak despite past experience but went above and beyond the call of duty by actively spreading disinformation to the global community long after the outbreak had gone international.

The WHO already knows something's wrong. It's in their own reports that they know China's not giving them all the information they need. Their job is to get China to pass along more data.
Now they are, having come under international scrutiny and facing consequences.
 

Agema

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Neither was COVID-19 despite having spread to a geographical area larger than Europe, and directly impacting a population greater in number than Europe or North America, until it actually impacted Europe and North America. Strange feat for a designation with no clear line of definition other than geographical range and population impacted. Don't kid yourself, public health especially on the international level is thoroughly politicized.
Yes, but if we're that loose, pretty much every single seasonal 'flu is technically a pandemic every year.

Well I mean, this isn't as if this is the exact scenario that had been warned about by public health authorities across the planet for nearly twenty years or anything. Or that we now know Chinese officials were well aware the Wuhan outbreak was due to a novel coronavirus strain since November, and not just replicated its performance during the 2002 outbreak despite past experience but went above and beyond the call of duty by actively spreading disinformation to the global community long after the outbreak had gone international.
No, there's possible evidence of awareness of a new infection in November. However, it's one thing to spot a disease, another to identify what's causing it and everything else about it. All that takes time, to amass and study data. From what we know, initial cases prompting specific investigation are early-mid December, and there are only a handful of hospitalisations. It's by end December with a few dozen hospitalisations there's powerful evidence the problem is pretty major.

My understanding of the Chinese system is that local provincial officials have a lot of power, a shortage of oversight, and that they like to pretend there aren't any problems when they report to their superiors, and this is where the obstruction may have chiefly occurred.

they are, having come under international scrutiny and facing consequences.
I mean that mid-January the WHO already knew China wasn't giving them all the information. The WHO's priority at that point was getting as much information out of China as possible so they could analyse and disseminate it.