Trump may have solidified his 2020 win, ISIS leader Al-Baghdadi killed in US Spec Ops Raid.

Avnger

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Seanchaidh said:
Silvanus said:
Seanchaidh said:
He would likely win against Joe Biden for the same reason he won against Hillary, Biden's favorable head to head polls at the moment notwithstanding.
Well, good thing you were explaining to us the other day how a Biden victory in the primaries will never happen.
Pleased to say that polling of the early states is vindicating that conclusion. Biden will have hardly any more oil to leak by the time the primaries actually happen and his support base right now consists almost entirely of people who aren't paying any attention whatsoever and think he's "electable"-- even though Sanders polls better against Trump (like I said, they're not paying attention). Meanwhile, Sanders is out there building a movement made up most importantly of people that aren't considered 'likely voters' by pollsters and so don't show up in polls of 'likely voters'. But even still, those polls are showing his support increase especially in early states such as Nevada and New Hampshire (where he's in first place).

This isn't what you'll hear as what passes for analysis on CNN, but then CNN is also the network that weirdly misreports polls that have Sanders in first place with falsified infographics and pretends he doesn't exist whenever possible. [https://thehill.com/hilltv/468209-krystal-ball-bernie-seems-to-have-a-little-extra-mojo-post-heart-attack] Sanders is going to win despite all this bullshit.

[tweet t="https://twitter.com/ryangrim/status/1190604295953174531"]
[tweet t="https://twitter.com/CANCEL_SAM/status/1190343589815033856"]
If you look at the first tweet, the poll on the left is entirely correct[footnote]According the my check of realclearpolitics' poll histories at least[/footnote]. The poll on the right does have Warren and Bernie switched. However, it ALSO switched Biden and Buttigieg; are you telling me that CNN is shilling for Buttigieg over Biden as well? Funny how that escaped your outrage. Also, the second half of that first tweet is an article from CNN itself, their damn polling director wrote it. Just maybe, the intern doing the graphic that day was half-asleep? Or they misread the names? Or they're not paid enough to worry about occasional detail slips because they're overworked[footnote]Something that would actually be worth getting upset about if true[/footnote]?

As for the second tweet, there's dozens of reasons that Sanders may not have been mentioned. Here's a few straight off the top of my head:

1. Sanders and Warren have always been "within striking distance" of one another in pretty much every single primary poll (regardless of who is in front of who), so there's no need to state it. Stating exactly what everyone expects doesn't bring in views.
2. They took the "newsworthy" angle of "even the 3rd and 4th place" candidates are close. It's not often that the primary polls show that. Again, "newsworthy" meaning "out of the ordinary" or "likely to get more people talking."
3. Biden and Buttigieg being that close to the top is "shocking." This is related to both points 1 and 2: Buttigieg was largely unknown prior to this primary season and Biden has been nose-diving in most polls (relative to his starting position months ago). News media is largely driven by "shock value" and has been for decades now. Them choosing the most "turn your head back to the TV" phrasing is no surprise.

Finally, what the fuck is "vision boarding"? If it's what it sounds like based on context, how the fuck is this proof of it? Sanders name is literally in all 3 graphics and present in the CNN article. "Vision boarding," again based on the implied criticism, would be if they hadn't shown him at all; he's clearly present though.

Take your nonsense self-victimization elsewhere. There's plenty of shit to criticize CNN for; making shit up to play victim just makes the valid criticism seem less accurate. "Boy who cried wolf" syndrome, if you will.

I know this is asking a lot, but did you take even a second to ask "I wonder why this might happen" before jumping aboard the anger train?
 

Seanchaidh

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Avnger said:
3. Biden and Buttigieg being that close to the top is "shocking." This is related to both points 1 and 2: Buttigieg was largely unknown prior to this primary season and Biden has been nose-diving in most polls (relative to his starting position months ago). News media is largely driven by "shock value" and has been for decades now. Them choosing the most "turn your head back to the TV" phrasing is no surprise.
Biden being 'within striking distance' of Warren is newsworthy! But Bernie being even closer is not.

Nope, sorry: you're not arguing in good faith.

[tweet t="https://twitter.com/CANCEL_SAM/status/1189265519179915264"]
[tweet t="https://twitter.com/krystalball/status/1189235702325792769"]

https://fair.org/home/msnbcs-anti-sanders-bias-makes-it-forget-how-to-do-math/
 

Batou667

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Silvanus said:
He'll pull off a recovery greater than almost any in modern history, eh?

Dissatisfaction is higher than with any incumbent for decades and decades. He's behind in pretty much every swing state.
I recall the talk of "mathematical impossibility" that Trump would win in 2016, from armchair pundits and news outlets alike, right up until the final results were announced. He's in no worse shape now than he was four years ago.
 

Silvanus

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Batou667 said:
I recall the talk of "mathematical impossibility" that Trump would win in 2016, from armchair pundits and news outlets alike, right up until the final results were announced. He's in no worse shape now than he was four years ago.
Trump has a worse net approval rating at this stage of his incumbency than any president [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/] since... uhrm, well, since polls began.

Plus, he actually is in a worse position now than he was in 2016. Approval ratings I can see for him in 2016 hover around 48-- he hasn't been that high for many months now, and is currently mired in such scandal that almost half of Republican voters now support his impeachment.
 

Seanchaidh

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Silvanus said:
Batou667 said:
I recall the talk of "mathematical impossibility" that Trump would win in 2016, from armchair pundits and news outlets alike, right up until the final results were announced. He's in no worse shape now than he was four years ago.
Trump has a worse net approval rating at this stage of his incumbency than any president [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/] since... uhrm, well, since polls began.

Plus, he actually is in a worse position now than he was in 2016. Approval ratings I can see for him in 2016 hover around 48-- he hasn't been that high for many months now, and is currently mired in such scandal that almost half of Republican voters now support his impeachment.
There is also the very real chance that his opponent will be someone better than the sentient dumpster fire he faced last time. 2016 was a race between the two most disliked presidential candidates in modern United States history. That doesn't mean that 2020 will necessarily be easy for Democrats, because they could also manage to nominate someone just as bad or worse than last time around.
 

tstorm823

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Seanchaidh said:
There is also the very real chance that his opponent will be someone better than the sentient dumpster fire he faced last time. 2016 was a race between the two most disliked presidential candidates in modern United States history. That doesn't mean that 2020 will necessarily be easy for Democrats, because they could also manage to nominate someone just as bad or worse than last time around.
I'd like to speak for all Republicans when I say the only way they could nominate a worse candidate than 2016 Hillary Clinton would be to nominate 2020 Hillary Clinton.
 

Seanchaidh

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tstorm823 said:
Seanchaidh said:
There is also the very real chance that his opponent will be someone better than the sentient dumpster fire he faced last time. 2016 was a race between the two most disliked presidential candidates in modern United States history. That doesn't mean that 2020 will necessarily be easy for Democrats, because they could also manage to nominate someone just as bad or worse than last time around.
I'd like to speak for all Republicans when I say the only way they could nominate a worse candidate than 2016 Hillary Clinton would be to nominate 2020 Hillary Clinton.
Still technically a possibility.
 

crimson5pheonix

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Seanchaidh said:
tstorm823 said:
Seanchaidh said:
There is also the very real chance that his opponent will be someone better than the sentient dumpster fire he faced last time. 2016 was a race between the two most disliked presidential candidates in modern United States history. That doesn't mean that 2020 will necessarily be easy for Democrats, because they could also manage to nominate someone just as bad or worse than last time around.
I'd like to speak for all Republicans when I say the only way they could nominate a worse candidate than 2016 Hillary Clinton would be to nominate 2020 Hillary Clinton.
Still technically a possibility.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/09/politics/hillary-clinton-2020-donald-trump/index.html
https://spectator.us/could-hillary-run-again-thinking-about/

I think some people want it. I have no idea why they would, but they do.
 

Seanchaidh

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crimson5pheonix said:
https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/09/politics/hillary-clinton-2020-donald-trump/index.html
https://spectator.us/could-hillary-run-again-thinking-about/

I think some people want it. I have no idea why they would, but they do.
If you're rich and what you care about is not having your taxes go up and you don't care if that means Trump is reelected, then you'd support any number of vacuous centrists, such as Biden, Buttigieg, Harris, Klobuchar, Gillibrand, Bennett, Delaney, Hickenlooper or, indeed, Hillary Clinton.
 

crimson5pheonix

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Seanchaidh said:
crimson5pheonix said:
https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/09/politics/hillary-clinton-2020-donald-trump/index.html
https://spectator.us/could-hillary-run-again-thinking-about/

I think some people want it. I have no idea why they would, but they do.
If you're rich and what you care about is not having your taxes go up and you don't care if that means Trump is reelected, then you'd support any number of vacuous centrists, such as Biden, Buttigieg, Harris, Klobuchar, Gillibrand, Bennett, Delaney, Hickenlooper or, indeed, Hillary Clinton.
But even if that's what you wanted, why would you pick Hillary? It's not like there's a shortage of choices.
 

Silvanus

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crimson5pheonix said:
But even if that's what you wanted, why would you pick Hillary? It's not like there's a shortage of choices.
Much the same question can be asked of the Republicans about their current incumbent. I don't really understand the American psyche.
 

Saelune

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tstorm823 said:
Seanchaidh said:
There is also the very real chance that his opponent will be someone better than the sentient dumpster fire he faced last time. 2016 was a race between the two most disliked presidential candidates in modern United States history. That doesn't mean that 2020 will necessarily be easy for Democrats, because they could also manage to nominate someone just as bad or worse than last time around.
I'd like to speak for all Republicans when I say the only way they could nominate a worse candidate than 2016 Hillary Clinton would be to nominate 2020 Hillary Clinton.
As if I care to please Republicans. And you dont speak for all Republicans, Trump speaks for all Republicans, considering none of you have the stones to stand up to him.

Hillary got more votes than Trump. More people wanted Hillary as President than Trump. That is just a fact.
 

Agema

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crimson5pheonix said:
But even if that's what you wanted, why would you pick Hillary? It's not like there's a shortage of choices.
It happens because the people who pick the candidates frequently aren't that representative of the voters.

Hillary might be attractive to Democratic Party members and Trump to Republican Party members in various ways that they really aren't outside that relatively small voter pool. Similar things go on everywhere else of course - I find it hard to believe Jeremy Corbyn and to a lesser extent Boris Johnson would be leaders of the two main UK parties if they'd been selected from outside the membership as well.
 

Seanchaidh

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Agema said:
crimson5pheonix said:
But even if that's what you wanted, why would you pick Hillary? It's not like there's a shortage of choices.
It happens because the people who pick the candidates frequently aren't that representative of the voters.

Hillary might be attractive to Democratic Party members and Trump to Republican Party members in various ways that they really aren't outside that relatively small voter pool. Similar things go on everywhere else of course - I find it hard to believe Jeremy Corbyn and to a lesser extent Boris Johnson would be leaders of the two main UK parties if they'd been selected from outside the membership as well.
Hillary isn't (and wasn't) terribly attractive to Democratic Party members-- but she is one of those candidates who the media likes to say is "electable", and so some people pretending to be savvy will choose her (or someone like her) as their nominee. They should stop, obviously.