US 2024 Presidential Election

[meiam]

Nationally Kamala still leads by +1.1%, but Trump has the edge on a few key swing states.

Irregardless the margin of error for every prediction is larger than his lead, or Kamala's.

It's a tossup at this point.

Meh poll always underestimate republican/Trump, he's better now than he did in either 16/20. Plus now he has terrorist doing his bidding and stacked the entire system with yes man that will push that he won no matter what. 50/50 is an easy win for Trump.

 

[tippy2k2]

I'd like to see a study of third-party voters doing trolley problems, I'd very much like to know how one can fail at both utilitarian and deontological ethics.

I am only one third party voter so hardly a study but we went over this pages ago...





Democrats are the ones actively choosing to sacrifice an entire countries worth of people. This isn't some malevolent force or natural disaster that we can't do anything about. Democrats are tying people to the track to run them down when they can choose to just...not do that.

Once The Democrats know you'll let them get away with fucking Genocide and still vote for them, they'll know you'll let them get away with anything as long as they are 99% Hitler going up against 100% Hitler. Just don't be shocked next go around when they decide a cause dear to you is a worthy sacrifice for the trolly...

 

[crimson5pheonix]

Whatever. Everyone else seems just fine letting our country go to shit, why should I bother resisting?

Edit: To be clear, I definitely support one candidate over another, and it's not that I actually don't care who wins. It's just that it feels like the only thing I get for getting involved is being told I'm evil for supporting one candidate, and with the electoral college, my vote doesn't actually matter at all, so it feels like pissing in the wind to do or say anything at best.

It's a sad state of things. There's an effort to divide the left, not just here but going forward, by those who more enthusiastically support Kamala. They go out of their way to insult and demean in order to get insulted back and make the returns look broader than they are. And it's going to poison things going further.

 

[Seanchaidh]

 

[tippy2k2]

If We VoTe FoR hArRiS, iT'lL bE eAsIeR tO oRgAnIzE aNd PrOtEsT!!!!!

 

[Seanchaidh]

I'd like to see a study of third-party voters doing trolley problems, I'd very much like to know how one can fail at both utilitarian and deontological ethics.

Third party voters take the foundational liberal value concerning the 'consent of the governed' more seriously than liberals; for liberals it has been reduced to pablum. Oh, you're 'harm reducing'? In a 'free and fair election'? Right.

 

[Agema]

When they say politics is about compromising, it's always compromising with The Republicans instead of compromising with The Left. They'd rather lose with The Right than win with The Left because they both serve the same master.

The Democrats already have the left. The Democrats are already pretty much everyone left of the Republican Party. And everyone to the left of the Republicans means some pretty right wing people. Like, consider Joe Manchin. The territory for "swing voters" is just to the right of Joe fucking Manchin.

I'm not sure you actually have a bargaining chip here. If the Democrats cater too much to the left, they probably lose the "Joe Manchin" centre and lose overall. Or they can try to take the centre and the left can not vote for them and they can lose overall. I really do not think the left is that big. Polls suggest the self-identification of US voters is ~40% moderate, ~35% conservative and ~25% liberal. The Democratic Party is ~45% moderate, ~15% conservative, ~40% liberal. The left is just a subset of the liberals.

I'm open to you suggesting where else there is mass of left-leaning voters that Democrats can tap to make a decisive difference.

 

[crimson5pheonix]

The Democrats already have the left. The Democrats are already pretty much everyone left of the Republican Party. And everyone to the left of the Republicans means some pretty right wing people. Like, consider Joe Manchin. The territory for "swing voters" is just to the right of Joe fucking Manchin.

I'm not sure you actually have a bargaining chip here. If the Democrats cater too much to the left, they probably lose the "Joe Manchin" centre and lose overall. Or they can try to take the centre and the left can not vote for them and they can lose overall. I really do not think the left is that big. Polls suggest the self-identification of US voters is ~40% moderate, ~35% conservative and ~25% liberal. The Democratic Party is ~45% moderate, ~15% conservative, ~40% liberal. The left is just a subset of the liberals.

I'm open to you suggesting where else there is mass of left-leaning voters that Democrats can tap to make a decisive difference.

Obama in 2008 ran an unabashedly left wing campaign and won more votes than any president before by a wide margin, betrayed his left wing promises and moved right to immediately lose the house and 5 million votes off his reelection, Hillary ran to the right of that and lost to Trump, Biden ran on left wing compromise that won him more votes than any candidate before. Switching to Kamala and picking Walz (in contrast to Shapiro) was winning in the polls, until she started campaigning with the Cheneys and is now looking to lose.

 

[tippy2k2]

The Democrats already have the left. The Democrats are already pretty much everyone left of the Republican Party. And everyone to the left of the Republicans means some pretty right wing people. Like, consider Joe Manchin. The territory for "swing voters" is just to the right of Joe fucking Manchin.

I'm not sure you actually have a bargaining chip here. If the Democrats cater too much to the left, they probably lose the "Joe Manchin" centre and lose overall. Or they can try to take the centre and the left can not vote for them and they can lose overall. I really do not think the left is that big. Polls suggest the self-identification of US voters is ~40% moderate, ~35% conservative and ~25% liberal. The Democratic Party is ~45% moderate, ~15% conservative, ~40% liberal. The left is just a subset of the liberals.

I'm open to you suggesting where else there is mass of left-leaning voters that Democrats can tap to make a decisive difference.

Democrats have been blowing off the actual left for as long as I've been allowed to vote (before the election, we're a small subset of losers who "can't compromise" so no one should try to give in to any of our demands but then after the elections when they lose, it's all third parties fault because we didn't shut the fuck up and get in line like they did). They've continued to move right ever since then.

Maybe they're right that we're not a big enough group to cater to but I 100% feel like there are a lot of voters like me but they just don't bother to vote because they see no point in it. A LOT of my positions are pretty fucking popular even across the aisle like M4A and not funding a genocide but Democrats would rather go after Republicans instead of at least trying to do some of the shit us dirty lefties want from our politicians. I'll be sad for America if this proves to kill Harris but I sure as fuck won't' be sad that The Democrats still haven't learned their 2016 lessons of "Not being Trump" isn't enough this go around to get people to throw away their principles.

 

[Silvanus]

I've only used the methods you've used to come to your evidence-free conclusions and then suppositions about voter intentions that make more sense than anything you've said so far

I'm not really interested in your bizarre suppositions about the thought processes of others. Its clear you don't have much of a grasp of what your opponents actually believe-- and you made that a point of pride. So why should we credit them?

And if these bizarre contradictions only crop up when we accept your silly suppositions, then they don't really reflect on anyone else.

 

[Johnny Novgorod]

Meh poll always underestimate republican/Trump, he's better now than he did in either 16/20. Plus now he has terrorist doing his bidding and stacked the entire system with yes man that will push that he won no matter what. 50/50 is an easy win for Trump.

I agree 50/50 is advantageous to Trump.

The 2016 polls were a joke, don't know how they compared to the 2020 polls in accuracy.