What are the chances?

[The_Healer]

I kicked a bird at 120km/h.

Let me explain. I was riding a dirt bike at around 120 km/h (75 mph) down a dirt road when a Galah (Look it up if you don't know what it is) flew across in front of me, low to the ground. Going so fast, I had no chance to avoid it and it collided with my foot. Considering it was a fully grown half kilo bird, it hurt quite a bit; particularly considering that I was traveling at quite a large velocity. Oh, in case you were wondering, the bird died on impact.

What I'd like to concentrate on is the chance of this happening. Considering there are few birds out here to start with (out at Dubbo for those who are familiar with Australian geography), hitting one would have been a rarity in a truck. Let alone on a motorbike. Birds are usually a challenge to hit, as they fly out of the way quite efficiently however I managed to kick one while traveling at 120km/h on a motorbike.
I find this whole affair severely improbable.

Has any one else experienced something of similar improbability? Do share.

 

[shadowstriker86]

wow, talk about an accomplishment! gj!

 

[grimsprice]

When you factor in area density of birds and the area you take up, the trajectories involved, and all that, you have a fairly rare event.

But you forgot to factor time. How often do you ride in that area? The more you ride, the probability of the improbably steadily climbs. in other words, if you flip a coin, and it lands heads 50 times, the probability of landing tails is higher than 50/50 because the probability of fliping 51 heads in a row is very very small.

 

[Kaboose the Moose]

At least it wasn't a magpie!.

The chances of hitting a bird with a vehicle is pretty slim to begin with. The odds are even slimmer if the vehicle in question is a bike/bicycle, due to the smaller surface area involved and the fact that birds are rarely spotted flying at pedestrian altitudes (with the exception when it's taking off from the ground). Given also that you hit the bird with your foot means the bird was literally just getting off the ground during the impact time and the chances for such a "pre-take off bird collision" is very rare. Still rare doesn't mean "impossible" so clearly you can encounter a bird-bike collision, albeit on rare occasions.

And no, I got no improbable scenarios to share at this point.

 

[SecondhandSerenade]

Pissed up galah.

He didn't even see you coming.

 

[LongAndShort]

But you forgot to factor time. How often do you ride in that area? The more you ride, the probability of the improbably steadily climbs. in other words, if you flip a coin, and it lands heads 50 times, the probability of landing tails is higher than 50/50 because the probability of fliping 51 heads in a row is very very small.

Just because the probability of flipping fifty-one heads in a row is small, it doesn't change the fact that the odds of getting tails are still fifty-fifty.

This bird kick is pretty improbable and I expect most people could ride the same place every day for the rest of their lives without ever coming close to replicating it.

Good kick, poor bird and at least it didn't fly into your head.

 

[dannipulsa]

last summer i found 3 splaterd birds in my bumper after a 7hr drive

 

[Gruthar]

Not as small as you'd think. Here's a picture from the 2008 Australian motorcycle GP:

Spoiler

I also have pictures of a coyote cut in half by a dude on a motorcycle doing 100 mph, but those are pretty gruesome...