Where do you think WW3 will start?

[EightGaugeHippo]

In the streets of Washington DC, when Russian paratroopers drop out of the sky in the most drastic attempt to tug at people's emotion.

No cookie for the reference.

 

[Dragonclaw]

Since I quoted the movie in another thread I figure some WAG THE DOG fits here too


Conrad 'Connie' Brean: Would you go to war to do that?

CIA Agent Mr. Young: I have.

Conrad 'Connie' Brean: Well, I have, too. Would you do it again...? Isn't that why you're here? I guess so. And if you go to war again, who is it going to be against? Your "ability to fight a Two-ocean War" against who? Sweden and Togo? Who you sitting here to Go To War Against? That time has passed. It's passed. It's over. The war of the future is nuclear terrorism. It is and it will be against a small group of dissidents who, unbeknownst, perhaps, to their own governments, have blah blah blah. And to go to that war, you've got to be prepared. You have to be alert, and the public has to be alert. Cause that is the war of the future, and if you're not gearing up, to fight that war, eventually the axe will fall. And you're gonna be out in the street. And you can call this a "drill," or you can call it "job security," or you can call it anything you like. But I got one for you: you said, "Go to war to protect your Way of Life," well, Chuck, this is your way of life. Isn't it? And if there ain't no war, then you, my friend, can go home and prematurely take up golf. Because there ain't no war but ours.

 

[Johanthemonster666]

The title says it.

Do you think world war 3 will start in Israel? Germany? North Korea? Australia?

I'm guessing in a special place called "Nowhere".

Seconded, a little thing called mutually assured destruction makes it seem highly unlikely that there will be any global scale conflicts in the near or distant future.

Likewise. I just really don't see it happening. At least not on any short term scale.

Mutually assured destruction didn't prevent the first world war, it won't prevent the next. "The savage nature of men, will lead to it's own destruction" I believe thats from watchmen, but I'm not sure. Its likely true though.

We didn't possess nuclear, long range missiles or ballistic weaponry during the first world war. Mutually assured destruction means total war if one major power country attacks another by nuclear strike. If we had, I guarantee you hostilities would have ended long before they did since we used nerve gas in the trenches before The League of Nation's banned chemical and biological weapons.

It is forgotten that we're now living in a multipolar international community, where old East-West alliances no longer have as much strength as they did in the days of the cold war. It's now mostly about "major military and economic block" nations forming unions based on resources, corporate and market ties. China, Brazil, Russia, Venezuela, Bolivia, Iran, Sudan, Syria, Myanmar, and North Korea have a lose alliance with each other based solely on economic ties rather than a shared agenda (though all agree that the U.S, Europe and their developing world allies are a threat to their policies and goals).

I personally don't believe world war 3 will happen any time soon (the currently state of conflicts that overlap can already be considered a global war), but straining resources, peak oil, water, global financial collapse, and perhaps the rise of formerly "third world" nations who band together as all this happens will cause some serious problems for humanity as a whole. A lot of Escapists like to make fun of the U.S,but when the *hit hit's the fan for the United States economically, the rest of you are screwed unless you'd prefer to be Russia's whore to save your skin for another few decades. China is given too much credit, they're growth is out of control and they're already starting to resort to U.S strategies to secure resources and reign in inflation. I personally think China will implode economically in the next couple decades, while India may fair better if they play their cards right in regards to Pakistan, China, Russia and their status as a non-align country.

Iran is looking pretty ominous even though people like to downplay it's influence and rather insane clerical/autocratic leadership. These people are quite frankly insane and have talked about destroying Israel since the start.

Does anyone here really think Israel backing down on the Gaza blockade, and an eventually coming to some agreement with the Palestinian authority on a two state solution is going to stop Iran, Syira, Hamas or Hezbollah from continued attacks? Of course not, and thought I've never condoned Israeli operations in the past that were blatantly heavy-handed in their treatment of the Palestinian-Arab population, Iran and its allies have their own reasons for meddling in the region, and escalating the violence for their own purposes, much like how the U.S supported of Israel solely due to Syria, Egypt and Jordan being supplied by the Soviet Union.


P.S- I take it not many of you are familiar with world history or how international/government relations work? Because all I'm seeing "Everything is America's fault...derp derp....they did stuff in the cold war, Iraq, and now Afghanistan, and Libya.. derp,derp". It seems that everyone is forgetting the involvement of... oh I don't know... the USSR, and their allies as we engaged in that grand dicking contest known as "The Cold War" and their terrorists, armed factions, spies, human rights violations and proxy wars that resulted in dictatorships and pissed off/devastated people no different than the ones the U.S supported.

In the case of all this that's happening today... it takes more than 3-5 countries to tango =/ not just big, bad boogie man U.S.A out to get everyone.

You've given this a lot more thought then I have. And I agree with your logic. But I think you put too much faith in human intelect. "There are only two infinite things: The universe, and human stupidity. And I'm not sure about the first one." Einstein. Just because WW3 would bring great chances of major loss, and only a slim chance of minor gain doesn't mean that it won't start. That was the parallel I wanted to draw with WW1. There was so little to gain from the whole conflict, and the losses were guarenteed to be enourmous. Yet it still happened. I like to think humanity has learned from history, but I've always felt that the only lesson that can be learned from history is that humanity doesn't learn from it.
I'm an optimist, as a choice I love and trust everybody I meet, but humanity as a whole is an ugly creature. One that will ineventually leads to it's own destruction.

I'm not disputing the illogical motivations of human beings and our animal instincts. WW1 was projected to last less than a few months in the eyes of most of the alliances involved (as was the Anmerican civil war in the eyes of the American people and their political/military leaders).

I think the U.S would do well at this point to pull all of it's resources out of "projecting" military power and focus on it's domestic long term security and economy. This would be a dangerous move in light of nations like China, Russia and Iran trying to muscle their way into the global area the same way the west did in the last century. Not to mention Pakistan receiving no more aid from the U.S (though they deserve nothing imo) would jeopardize their government's newly democratic government and make the likelihood of Islamic militants attaining nuclear weapons/material very possible.

I guess the only logic in the U.S taking up a non-interventionist stance would be that unfriendly nations would no longer have a logical accuse to throw their weight around so pompously, though history teaches us that people like Ahmadinejad will always find excuses to use aggression and escalate tensions to satisfy their psychotic world views. Heck, I bet you that even if the U.S kept every soldier on it's own soil and did not intervene in any world affairs, world nations and U.K/Aussie trolls on the escapist would still be bitching about how evil/lazy America was. They'd accuse us of still plotting to take over the world, and I bet you anything that domestic critics of the United States would accuse it of "not caring" for human rights and atrocities/crises taking place around the world and our resolve to not get involved in any shape or form.