I see no reason to just assume the first colony will be a disaster. I think it's more plausible that the second colony will be.
The first colony will be a grand, world-collaborative movement with billions of dollars behind it, constant scrutiny, and attention to every detail. After that first colony, it's going to be catch-up from then on. Mars is absolutely a challenging environment, but every challenge can be overcome. What's going to screw the colonists is when we get comfortable enough with the idea that someone on the project says, "relax, we got this."
