World War 3 MegaThread.

Gergar12

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So, on the news today I just saw that Chinese PLA Sea-based forces surrounding Taiwan are trying to punish them for voting for a candidate Xi doesn't like. Multiple Baltic countries, Poland, and very likely France will face off against Russia if Ukraine loses large swathes of land, this was also in the news. Iran's president dies, and they keep poking Israel which has every reason to escalate due to its president needing a war to win to not be prosecuted for corruption, and little guardrails due to international scorn against Israel from the international community. And North Korea is the least escalatory of these keeps poking South Korea. Will we get World War 3 tomorrow no. But we are getting closer and closer.

I very likely will not be joining the US government due to my failed screening and will likely be killed or deported following a Trump victory if the US goes to World War 3 since I am biologically Chinese and don’t like Xi, and I hate my life. I have no reason to side with any country right now. Quite the opposite.

So, I am just going to rant. The US is the least worst of the great powers and superpowers. That is a fact.

----------------China----------------​

The US was willing to do a couple of things with China. They would have at worst, shared power with China in a G2 scenario, and at best, give China the lion's share of power in Asia, and Africa. They may have even wanted to groom China to be the world's sole superpower at least for some time. Being a superpower country isn't easy, you have to pay in blood, treasure, and sweat to do it for sometimes in the short term very little gain. The US didn't kill the Rust Belt to earn money and gain new markets, it could have gotten that by going somewhere else where the market wasn't a former global superpower. It did so to kill the Soviet Union which wanted to kill American elites and intellectuals and very likely freethinkers as it did its own.

The US under Bill Clinton, and soon Obama wanted to groom China on one condition it join the international community as a democracy. China wants to have its cake and eat it too. Just think about what the US's current day deal with India is, because I can tell you right now it's we will give you white-collar jobs, trade deals, etc. and in exchange please accept tens of millions of battlefield deaths in a possible World War 3 with China. I frankly think even that's a bad deal for India as I would have asked for the US to involve India in the F-35 Program, and for help with high-tech arms, it's going to pay out dividends to the US in a war. But more on World War 3 later. But that has domestic costs, the democrats and establishment republicans have lost the Rust Belt, and now I am increasingly seeing anti-establishment rhetoric in the blue-collar profession, if I am a worker who was fired from a white-collar job, received a pay downgrade, or just had to take a lower paying job and I strictly looking for my interests, and I don't talk smack on the internet I am voting for Trump/the Alt-right to bring back IT jobs.

If Chinese head state Xi and many of the Politburo had reformed parts of their government to be first a one-party semi-democratic state, I think the US would have permitted them to grow their economy with US help, and eventually, they would have a high GDP per capita than Taiwan, and then Taiwan would have joined them once China had more reforms. Instead, the world gets World War 3. The US owns ALL of Taiwan's TSMC and the Netherlands ASML-like patients. This means they already knew how to make semiconductors, and could have done it themselves, but it wouldn't have made sense for the US to do so since they didn't have a comparative advantage which is saying the US wanted to do other stuff like software tech, biomedical, etc. Comparative advantage in terms of the US doesn't make sense for almost all fields of industry save a few rare earth ones given the US's plentiful resources, and geography. But Xi for whatever reason wanted to fight with the US instead of cooperating like everyone else including India, and here we are.

The US was sick of paying for its superpower status which was destabilizing its domestic body politic given how we ended up with Trump I would say that is right. It wanted China to do so, and I think a domestic China could have done an okay to good job at it at first. Usually, superpowers don't give up power unless they can trust who comes next on rare occasions, but they mostly don't unless they are the UK. For China to blow this was the biggest foreign policy failure of the 21st century. China could have been a one-party democracy like Hungary, and somewhat like Japan, but that could mean Xi couldn't murder his opponents, and be in power indefinitely. No country is meant to a democracy via its history because history is filled with autocracies and dictatorships. It takes better people to become a democracy, and the better people in China were shot in Tiananmen Square in 1989 and later jailed and persecuted under Xi.

----------------Russia----------------​

This one is a little more complicated, but the rule still applies. Putin wanted to troll Bush by asking to join NATO despite not being a democracy, or a rule-of-law country instead of reforming and gradually joining the European Union. The USSR and the Warsaw Pact’s cohesion was artificial and not natural. Nothing was holding it together. From 1955 onwards people were already sick of the Soviet Union, yes, they shared history, and the USSR at a great loss to itself fought off the Nazis, but that was no excuse for the Russians who held the most amount of power in it to hold them hostage forever, and it frankly was not sustainable. Putin thinks it was due to not crushing Poland with T-series tanks enough. When it was reality, it was because people were sick of the USSR and sick of fighting a silent Cold War against 1/3 of the world who had more shit and were happier than they were generally speaking. Every French leader seemed to love Russia, and Merkel who ruled over Germany would have likely been beneficial to Russia joining the EU, and the UK could have been pressured by the US to do so under Bush Jr who liked Russia for anti-terror reasons.

It was not men in suits in the US/the US Bureaucracy that wanted to wage perpetual conflict with Russia and other countries forever for the West of time because they love war that stopped Russia from joining the West, Turkey was in the West, and Serbia is in the process of joining the EU. Would it have been tough yes, but the US at one point didn’t get along with Canada, it didn’t get along with Mexico, it didn’t get along with the UK. Russia could have joined NATO and other allies as an ally to fight ISIS and not troll Facebook with pro-Trump anti-Hillary memes, and Hillary could have gotten the JCPOA signed (Iran Nuclear Deal). It’s funny the same thing could have been done in Syria, but Assad wanted to remain in power instead of living in a mansion in the Swiss Alps, would Syria be perfect no, but a democracy where people don’t murder people whose religion or race is different from them would have been better than the hellscape of the Syrian Civil War.

Now the UK wants to draft every single young person for civil service which means your name goes into a database so even if you were risk-averse enough to not pick the military you’re not going to be able to dodge the draft in the future when The UK joins the US-lead allies in the Third World War as your name is already in a database. Poland and the Baltics want to fight Russia despite not having nuclear weapons, and now France wants to do so. The US can no longer manage the geopolitical situation in Europe partly because of Republican electoral and short-sightedness, partly due to European aggressiveness and I would argue miscalculation in underreacting at first, and overreacting right now which will not deter Russia who will just double down, they should have just stuck with the US strategy of doubling down on supplying Ukraine instead of threatening a ground war and likely not bluffing which could escalate and spiral out of control.

----------------Iran----------------​

This isn’t complicated. The Shah was an enlightened monarch and getting rid of him is why Iran is now fighting multiple countries and a superpower while 1/3 of Iranians live in extreme poverty. When the CIA and MI6 coup the Iranian prime minister in 1953 it was not because of greed it was out of material necessity. Oil was like what semiconductors are today. Iran then was like Taiwan. If the USSR had gotten it, the Cold War would have been longer. Yes, the UK was jerks with colonialism, but Iran wasn’t like Vietnam, Mosaddegh despite being highly educated was very stubborn and his kicking out the Americans from his oil refineries killed oil production for his country and created a recession. After the coup, The US treated Iran back then like the US treated Israel today. They gave them top-of-the-line F-14s which is like the US giving Israel the NGAD right now, the British gave them their best 120mm gun tanks then one of the best tanks in the world at that time. Everyone complains that the US sanctions X, and the US steals oil, no without US know how many oil projects wouldn’t get completed and maintained, if you want them to take less of the profits get someone else to do it that doesn’t want to execute US citizens in the future. As for sanctions every country sanctions when they have the power to do so. A trade embargo is a sanction that many countries were doing willy nilly for decades in the 1920s, and 1930s and not only were they sanctions cause war, but sanctions are also like scalpels to the cleavers of trade embargos which are often close to the last resort. The Iranians both rural and urban lived better and more fulfilled lives under the shah unless you were a religious fruitcake who believed THEIR interpretation of a thousand-year train of thought is better than other people’s beliefs. Also, for everything that Iranians complain about the shah the Ayatollah Supreme Leader does that, and worse. Secret police what secret police that owns companies? Strict laws, what about strict laws, and strict gender laws? Don’t like the government you're dead, and you're tortured, but this time we will even deny it. Iran could easily be as rich as Saudi Arabia with none of the anti-woman laws.

----------------North Korea----------------​

This is by far the worst country of all of these. An absolute dictatorial ideologically driven one-person monarchy that nears Pol Pot levels. Everyone rightly complains about Nixon/Kissinger, and Pol Pot, and then the most extreme leftists will defend the current Pol Pot who is in power. If you're defending North Korea you're insane. Not only will you go to jail, and a death camp so will your family, and their descendants. He represents the worst of Korean history of peasants fighting an elitist government except this time he gaslights everyone into thinking he’s for the peasants. Again reform -> South Korea and North Korea uniting would have meant that overtime North Korea could have outproduced South Korea in births, and that would have been better for everyone as it would mean South Korea gets a larger workforce, and North Korea gets a non-crazy Pol Pot government.

----------------Donald Trump and the Alt Right----------------​

Trump could have not joined the republican party because Jon Stewart and President Obama insulted him. I don’t fault him for not putting everything into the S&P500/ a mutual fund, not everyone is into stocks even Wharton business majors in economics. But he was a billionaire, he had Hillary Clinton join his wedding, but because an exclusive club in Florida didn’t allow him to join, and like two insults he then proceeded to revolt against the democrats and now is possibly going to jail. As for the Alt-right, they make an average of 85K a year, you’re making more than most of America, and virtually the entire World, and let me tell you, guys, something if you start killing skin Latinos, possibly African Americans, possibly Muslims and Chinese Americans the US will not be the same, and the world for you will get worse, the US will get worse because it create a perception that the US isn’t a safe place for dynamic people and what’s going to happen is they will start companies in their own countries, innovate in their own countries, and that will ironically trickle down not your business, job, etc.. Tucker Carlson is even worse because of being rejected by the CIA and having to be a journalist he’s going to set the country on fire when he was the heir of the Swanson foods family something most Americans will never get to be at least with Alex Jones who got rejected from Community college he has a reason to create a business of conspiracy theories since the only other job would have been like a warehouse worker or a manager at a small business.

----------------Biden/Democrats/The Deep State----------------​

I have no reason to support them. Under Biden Admin I could get deported or jailed if the war with China started like FDR jailed Japanese Americans, like Biden is deporting many Chinese people who don’t want to deal with Xi’s government at the southern border, like Biden is giving bombs to the IDF. But while Biden is old, he’s experienced, but lacks the energy to deal with likely dozens of domestic, and foreign issues, the only issue in replacing him is that no one else can do his job like he can. They don’t have the experience and aren’t as competent. Bernie is too old, AOC would lose, Harris is too inexperienced, Galvin Newsom is kind of like Obama but he’s too young in an age where old leadership is valued everywhere around the unstable world. I generally hate old voters because of their short-sightedness, selfishness, and self-centeredness, but Biden isn’t that because he’s a Democratic in a demographic where people are voting Republican in doves, he’s got the best resume out of all the Democrats. The democrats are letting the bureaucrats like J. Powell have too much power, they need to somehow convince Powell like Trump did to inject enough low-interest rate sugar into the economy so that voters can have higher paying jobs and add inflations into the economy just enough for him to win the election, then tell Powell to hike interest rates after he won and is inaugurated. Because if Biden loses, the world will set on fire and while I likely won’t see the outcome as either disease will kill me, my poor eating habits, etc. by 2040 at most maybe 2050, I still would rather the world not burn even after I die. As for the deep state they are likely suffering morale issues due to the idiots in the republican party destroying work from home to save their commercial real estate investments or just straight up retiring. Also, Trump will fire people in government ala Project 2025 who don’t agree with him. So, what I am trying to say is brace for impact.
 

Gergar12

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I seriously doubt that, excepting if the far right gets in.
Anything that could be done under the guise of National Security about race in a war will be shitty, yes, but that is irrelevant in war. Also, I am a military-age male who was born in a geopolitical foe's country with no essential skills.
 

Thaluikhain

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Anything that could be done under the guise of National Security about race in a war will be shitty, yes, but that is irrelevant in war. Also, I am a military-age male who was born in a geopolitical foe's country with no essential skills.
During the Cold War, men from Warsaw Pact countries were brought into the US, and could become citizens if they served in the Army for, IIRC, 5 years. They wanted people who'd grown up in the enemy countries, who understood the culture and language.
 

Gergar12

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During the Cold War, men from Warsaw Pact countries were brought into the US, and could become citizens if they served in the Army for, IIRC, 5 years. They wanted people who'd grown up in the enemy countries, who understood the culture and language.
I have asked to join the military, and they rejected me. It was either joining the Navy and hopefully surviving booth camp without anti-psych drugs or not joining and getting a similar job. Both of which I haven't done. Also, I don't know the language, I know one dialect, and I can't read or write it. I also think I know the culture but most of that is Western sources and family in South China. You need to know Chinese readings and writing and the context of it to know the zeitgeist of Chinese society. My plan if I get deported is to join another English-speaking country and hopefully, I can be useful. I will likely have to join my cousins in Australia and just pay rent to their house. But I don't want to do that because Australia is hot af and not climate change-safe. Every billionaire wants to go to New Zealand because they don't use guns there and it's 'peaceful' but that's where everyone with money will be going and it's too obvious, another obvious but poor choice will be Greenland, Iceland, and Canada. They will have extremes for cold weather as well, and Canada itself has wildfires. Plus I am scared shitless of Boeing jets, I take a look at my Boeing stock which I brought like 10% of to track it, and it's still not recovered from when I brought it at a very low price. And yes I am a US citizen but so were many Japanese-Americans during WWII.
 
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Satinavian

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Sorry, i don't see a chance for WW III on the horizon. There are a couple of local conflicts that could escalate but not a single one of those has enough investment from third parties to escalate that much. And while there are a couple of countries that don't like the US and opportunistically occasionally work together to undermine it (particularly on sanctions), they are not actually allies willing to go to war for each other.
 

Gergar12

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Sorry, i don't see a chance for WW III on the horizon. There are a couple of local conflicts that could escalate but not a single one of those has enough investment from third parties to escalate that much. And while there are a couple of countries that don't like the US and opportunistically occasionally work together to undermine it (particularly on sanctions), they are not actually allies willing to go to war for each other.



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Russia pledged to use its Pacific fleet to help China invade Taiwan in exchange for China giving more dual-use tech to Russia is a thing. And to anyone who is asking what i am doing this late at night I am trying to mod Skyrim using a method on GitHub. It's not working.
 

Satinavian

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Russia pledged to use its Pacific fleet to help China invade Taiwan in exchange for China giving more dual-use tech to Russia is a thing.
Really ? I don't believe that.

Furthermore, while Xi has to make a statement on the Taiwan election (to not look weak after all the earlier threats) and also really needs to have something moving attention away from the horrible Chinese economy, the Chinese army is not ready for an invasion and he knows it. He has demanded they get ready until 2027, but the Chinese army has a lot of issues that are not getting better. And with the economy in shambles, he can't switch it to a war footing either nor can he give up trade at the moment. All the attempts to get China less reliant on export failed so far.

And Russia is busy in Ukraine and overstretched at home. Putin really does not want a hot war against more countries. If the US and China go to war over Taiwan, he will certainly try to keep out because otherwise the US forces in Europe and potentially several other NATO members will fight him there. Putin would do everything to avoid getting dragged into another war, particularly one where there is nothing for him in it and the chances for victory are slim.
 

Thaluikhain

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Yeah, sabre rattling is nothing new.

Also, Russia has shown itself not to be the threat it used to look like. It's struggling in Ukraine whilst Europe is lukewarm on sending massive amounts of support against them. Taking a more aggressive stance would not go well for them. China is rather more powerful, but is doing a good job expanding via more peaceful means.

In any case, if it gets to be a massive war between nuclear armed nations, nobody wins, and everyone knows that.
 

Asita

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Anything that could be done under the guise of National Security about race in a war will be shitty, yes, but that is irrelevant in war. Also, I am a military-age male who was born in a geopolitical foe's country with no essential skills.
Not likely. Yes, it happened before with the Japanese internment camps in WW2, but that's well recognized as a horrible stain on our record (perhaps not as bad as the Trail of Tears, but roughly in the same ballpark) and more tied to malicious racism than any practical consideration. I mean for fuck's sake, even after the internment camps, a good 20,000 Japanese Americans served the US military in WWII, and later investigation (during the Carter Administration) saw the government admitting how much of a fuck up the camps were, describing them as based on "race prejudice, war hysteria, and a failure of political leadership".

This is very well recognized as a very bad thing we did. As such, it is unlikely that we're going to repeat the mistake.
 

Hades

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One thing I noticed is that the world reverted to a state not all that dissimilar to Europe before WW1. Long reigning powers facing decline, rising powers being vengeful about others denying their place in the sun and ethnic divisions all over the place.

Linking China to Imperial Germany is the obvious one. Like Germany before it China is a newly risen power who's rise has created much discomfort and which the reigning powers are trying, or are seen as trying to deny China its new status. In general emerging powers making reigning powers nervous has a very long track record of leading to war, as old Thucydides already observed in ancient times.

Russia can be easily compared to uh....well to Russia. Both entities are authoritarian, backwards, delusional and desperate to retain a sense of imperial pride they never deserved to begin with. And as we can see now this delusional adherence to the idea of imperial ''glory'' already led Russia to war. And while Russia is a deeply declining power rather than an emerging one it has deluded itself into thinking its an emerging power unfairly held down. One could also see comparisons with Austria Hungary because its likely going to be the corpse shackled to China.

Speaking of Austria Hungry the prime comparison to that is obviously the European Union. Both are multi ethnic ''empires'' which causes friction within its borders. The EU is hardly as backwards or desperate as the Habsburgs though. Concerningly the spoiled and militarily gutted Europe might end up the corpse America will be shackled to should war break out.

Like the Balkan the Middle east is wrecked by unstable countries and ethnic strife. The ruthless and delusional nature of Israel also isn't unlike Serbia's disastrous strive for a greater Serbia.

Of course these comparisons are all relative. I don't expect a new war to break out the moment an archduke gets shot. History rarely repeats itself in the exact same way. Still the similarities are not exactly comforting.
 

Gergar12

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Really ? I don't believe that.

Furthermore, while Xi has to make a statement on the Taiwan election (to not look weak after all the earlier threats) and also really needs to have something moving attention away from the horrible Chinese economy, the Chinese army is not ready for an invasion and he knows it. He has demanded they get ready until 2027, but the Chinese army has a lot of issues that are not getting better. And with the economy in shambles, he can't switch it to a war footing either nor can he give up trade at the moment. All the attempts to get China less reliant on export failed so far.

And Russia is busy in Ukraine and overstretched at home. Putin really does not want a hot war against more countries. If the US and China go to war over Taiwan, he will certainly try to keep out because otherwise the US forces in Europe and potentially several other NATO members will fight him there. Putin would do everything to avoid getting dragged into another war, particularly one where there is nothing for him in it and the chances for victory are slim.
The Russian Navy fleet is split between multiple locations. One is deep in Eastern Europe near Poland and will stay there to deter Sweden and Finland near Kaliningrad. One is near Crimea and most of them have been sunk or damaged by Ukraine. Another is basically in a giant lake. But the Russian Pacific fleet is currently idling so if I were Putin I have two choices: One let my ships rust know the Americans will never go near it due to being deterred by nuclear weapons(which may or may not work) or just use the Russian navy to help China in exchange for them helping with Ukraine and dividing NATO and co's attention. Now I doubt he would send aircraft as those are needed in Ukraine, but he could send the Russian Navy there. The Turks have closed the entrance to Crimea via the Bosphorus Straits, so Putin can't send in more ships even if he wants to.
 

Gergar12

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Yeah, sabre rattling is nothing new.

Also, Russia has shown itself not to be the threat it used to look like. It's struggling in Ukraine whilst Europe is lukewarm on sending massive amounts of support against them. Taking a more aggressive stance would not go well for them. China is rather more powerful, but is doing a good job expanding via more peaceful means.

In any case, if it gets to be a massive war between nuclear armed nations, nobody wins, and everyone knows that.
That's why it will be conventional, not nuclear.
 

Gergar12

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Not likely. Yes, it happened before with the Japanese internment camps in WW2, but that's well recognized as a horrible stain on our record (perhaps not as bad as the Trail of Tears, but roughly in the same ballpark) and more tied to malicious racism than any practical consideration. I mean for fuck's sake, even after the internment camps, a good 20,000 Japanese Americans served the US military in WWII, and later investigation (during the Carter Administration) saw the government admitting how much of a fuck up the camps were, describing them as based on "race prejudice, war hysteria, and a failure of political leadership".

This is very well recognized as a very bad thing we did. As such, it is unlikely that we're going to repeat the mistake.
We have race prejudice, war hysteria, and a failure of political leadership right now.
 

Asita

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We have race prejudice, war hysteria, and a failure of political leadership right now.
You miss my point. The point is not that those things don't exist. The point is that the event in question is reviled as such. Describing it in those terms is not saying that we lack those conditions, it's a sharp criticism of the policy as ultimately meritless. That we recognize it as such makes a repeat performance significantly less likely.
 

Gergar12

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:LOL:

The Chinese would be better off with their own fishing fleet.
That means more targets for NATO/US-aligned forces to kill, and possibly more deaths. Which complicates things somewhat more.

You miss my point. The point is not that those things don't exist. The point is that the event in question is reviled as such. Describing it in those terms is not saying that we lack those conditions, it's a sharp criticism of the policy as ultimately meritless. That we recognize it as such makes a repeat performance significantly less likely.
History does tend to rhyme but I wouldn't be surprised if US institutions started deporting people or firing people right now with permanent residency than that tricking down to US citizens.
 

Thaluikhain

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That's why it will be conventional, not nuclear.
Ever since WW2, nobody has bet their country's future on the war saying conventional. Proxy wars, sure. Bit the big one? You want to be really, really sure that the enemy has invested massive amounts of time and effort on weapons they won't use when it's time to.
 

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Under Biden Admin I could get deported or jailed if the war with China started like FDR jailed Japanese Americans
You're paranoid. Just because something happened in the past doesn't mean it will happen again. Since you are Chinese, are you currently building railroads for like no money? Just because something happened before, doesn't mean you need to be worried about it now.

We have race prejudice, war hysteria, and a failure of political leadership right now.
And less than ever before at least for the 1st 2.
 

Gergar12

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You're paranoid. Just because something happened in the past doesn't mean it will happen again. Since you are Chinese, are you currently building railroads for like no money? Just because something happened before, doesn't mean you need to be worried about it now.


And less than ever before at least for the 1st 2.
I read about a landlord who murdered a child who happened to be Palestinian after Oct 7. Asian elders are getting murdered left and right after COVID-19 in the most progressive cities in America.

You're paranoid. Just because something happened in the past doesn't mean it will happen again. Since you are Chinese, are you currently building railroads for like no money? Just because something happened before, doesn't mean you need to be worried about it now.


And less than ever before at least for the 1st 2.
The first one is still there is just gone below the surface, war hysteria via Ukraine and Gaza is there and will get worse with a WW3, and number three has less to do with Biden and more to do with poor business, and political leadership.

One more thing I would like to add, it's very likely Biden is balancing his funding from multinationals and large corporations and his base and voters by letting companies price-gorge somewhat in exchange for winning the elections. We need the campaign contributions from liberalish companies and billionaires if we are to beat Trump so it's a give and take.