Ukraine

Dalisclock

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So, Putin now has little left to lose?
Otoh, one can only imagine how his rivals in the Kremlin see this if it's true.

I'd be shocked if he lives 3 years as opposed to "Comrade Putin had sudden unfortunate brain hemorrhage in his sleep. We were unable to save him". Followed by reports of numerous high level "suicides" among the Russian political elite.

I don't think we're that far off from"The death of Stalin part 2"
 
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The Rogue Wolf

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That puts another perspective on this invasion: the vanity and clouded thinking of a dying man who thought it would cement his legacy. And in a way it will cement his legacy: just possibly not in the way he might have hoped.
Putin is the type of man to whom failure is worse than death. So what will he resort to in order to avoid that label?
 

Agema

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Putin is the type of man to whom failure is worse than death. So what will he resort to in order to avoid that label?
I suspect that's not true. I think Putin is extremely invested in the material: his personal power, wealth... and life. There are many reports he has become paranoid; he's terrified of covid (immunosupressed from chemo?), extreme security to the point of isolation. This says to me a man who fears and resents dying. He hates failure because it undermines his power.

However, at the point he may finally accept the inevitability of death, he might go a long way to carve some sort of legacy in stone, rather than just being seen as another name in a long history of Russian tyrants. Securing a territorial grab and killing foreigners usually goes down well (at least with nationalists).
 

Seanchaidh

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The era of great power politics, in which the world is bloodily carved up between contending imperial powers, is over! There's no carving if the whole world is claimed by the United States.

Because I'm struggling to see the relevance of Ukraine being a plutocracy, or how that would make its government less legitimate than any other government.
Cool, maybe try understanding the significance of what you're responding to before bothering me with this irrelevant tripe.

You aren't making the point you think you're making.
Nor, it seems, either of the ones you think I'm making.

The United States encouraged Ukraine to provoke Russia amidst a series of diplomatic and other maneuvers by NATO transparently designed to compromise Russia's security. Russia was quite willing to negotiate a settlement of the NATO issue for the last few decades; Russia was ignored. The United States gave Russia a choice between accepting an ever tightening grip around its throat or trying to do something about it. Russia chose the latter. The war in Ukraine is the sort of thing that had been predicted as a consequence of US and NATO policy for years before it happened. The United States wanted this outcome as much as anyone else. And Ukraine suffers as a result. Zelensky will have his nice new house in Israel, though.
 

Seanchaidh

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All this taken with a grain of salt, there's lot of these kinda rumours floating around as amusing as they can be.
View attachment 6247
Reminds me of the phenomenon in which some family member of Kim Jong Un is declared murdered by some western newspaper only for that family member to turn up living a few weeks later.
 

Silvanus

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Russia was quite willing to negotiate a settlement of the NATO issue for the last few decades; Russia was ignored.
More complete dross.

Russia signed several different agreements, all of which it broke in the most egregious, bloody manners possible. It has occasionally offered further "negotiations" over the past 8 years... all the while secretly sponsoring an insurgency, and secretly sending its disguised troops in.

All of which is then just lied about and denied, over and over again. As it lies about the far-right groups it funds throughout Europe. As it lies about the neo-Nazi mercenaries it dispatches to numerous African civil wars. As it lied yet again about the reasons for its troops massing on the border. As it lied yet again about the aims of its latest war.

Russia is completely unwilling to "negotiate" as anything other than a false pretense under which to launch more covert operations.
 
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Agema

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The United States encouraged Ukraine to provoke Russia amidst a series of diplomatic and other maneuvers by NATO transparently designed to compromise Russia's security.
And yet this is sort of bollocks.

At root, there is no need for NATO and Russia to be enemies any more than the UK and France had to be after their centuries of conflict. NATO and Russia set out in the 90s to build a working relationship, enhance co-operation and not see each other as adversaries: hence all the patient effort by Europe to build trade and try to get on peacefully. Overcoming decades of mutual suspicion was hardly going to be easy, but NATO countries were willing and put effort in.

In the final analysis, more than anyone else it was Putin that chose otherwise. As is increasingly evident, because he dreams of a restoration of a Russian Empire, rather than a partner in a mutual association of agreeable nations. I could perhaps accept this notion of "compromised security" if it were not a euphemism for supporting Russia's demand for crude, imperialistic control over its neighbours.
 
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Silvanus

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I could perhaps accept this notion of "compromised security" if it were not a euphemism for supporting Russia's demand for crude, imperialistic control over its neighbours.
As well as, of course, the fact that Russia hasn't actually ever been attacked by Ukraine. In fact, the territory of the Russian Federation has not been attacked or even under credible threat from a foreign country for the entire duration of its conflict with Ukraine.

While Russia, on the other hand, has been militarily involved in.... seven other countries? Just in the very recent past.

You have to wonder why the concern of "compromised security" applies exclusively for Russia, and not for all of those seven countries whose security Russia is itself aggressively compromising.
 

EvilRoy

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Nor, it seems, either of the ones you think I'm making.
As I've indicated a few times in the past, I legitimately have no idea what you're actually trying to communicate most of the time. Usually, I assume you're just banging the "US bad" drum, but your recent obsession with insisting Ukraine is a solid nazi dictatorship had me guessing that maybe you're trying to remove the moral imperative to stop Russia from the discussion somehow. Apparently, I was wrong, and you're just banging the regular "US bad drum" with an extra couple notes about how Ukraine isn't sovereign? Or maybe that Ukraine is a puppet state and therefore the atrocities committed against it by Russia are excusable? No idea. Sometimes I think you drunk-post.

You would probably spend less time telling all of us that we just don't get what you're saying if you put the slightest effort in making a clear statement of your position rather than being absolute garbage at the basics of communication. I typically try to give people the benefit of the doubt in these cases and assume that I'm the one not picking up on what is intended, but I'm quite certain that you have told literally everyone posting in this thread that they're just so dumb and they just don't understand what you mean. On that basis, I'm pretty sure the problem here is you.

And Ukraine suffers as a result. Zelensky will have his nice new house in Israel, though.
So why isn't he there? Seriously. Zelensky is still in Ukraine. He doesn't need to be. Most world leaders would have likely already left, and very few people would blame them for leading from a place of safety. Putin himself has security three-deep around him at all times when he isn't hiding in a bunker - and he isn't even the one being invaded. Zelensky could have bailed at any time, so why hasn't he?
 

Hades

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The United States encouraged Ukraine to provoke Russia amidst a series of diplomatic and other maneuvers by NATO transparently designed to compromise Russia's security. Russia was quite willing to negotiate a settlement of the NATO issue for the last few decades; Russia was ignored. The United States gave Russia a choice between accepting an ever tightening grip around its throat or trying to do something about it. Russia chose the latter. The war in Ukraine is the sort of thing that had been predicted as a consequence of US and NATO policy for years before it happened. The United States wanted this outcome as much as anyone else. And Ukraine suffers as a result. Zelensky will have his nice new house in Israel, though.
That argument hinges on the premise that accepting Ukraine as a sovereign nation is somehow offensive to Russia. It hinges on the belief that Russia is a special little flower who deserves a sphere of influence full of countries who hate and despise Russia. It hinges on the belief that we're still in the 18th century and that no dog can bark in eastern Europe without first having received permission from the Kremlin.

But all these beliefs are wrong. Ukraine is a sovereign nation, Russia is not so inherently special that countries should be forced into its sphere of influence and it is no longer a grand imperial power. We shouldn't play this game with Russia. We shouldn't humor their imperial pretensions, and we should not force unwilling countries to be Russia's puppet state. Saying the west forming ties with Ukraine is a ''provocation'' only works if we go in assuming that Ukraine belongs to Russia, and that Russia deserves a veto in any policy Ukraine plans on implementing.
 

Trunkage

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The United States encouraged Ukraine to provoke Russia amidst a series of diplomatic and other maneuvers by NATO transparently designed to compromise Russia's security. Russia was quite willing to negotiate a settlement of the NATO issue for the last few decades; Russia was ignored. The United States gave Russia a choice between accepting an ever tightening grip around its throat or trying to do something about it. Russia chose the latter. The war in Ukraine is the sort of thing that had been predicted as a consequence of US and NATO policy for years before it happened. The United States wanted this outcome as much as anyone else. And Ukraine suffers as a result. Zelensky will have his nice new house in Israel, though.
You know, if this was remotely true, Putin would have to be incredibly stupid to fall for such a blatant trap. What a statesmen

Which, looking at how Putin thought this war would go... you could be right

Or, Putin could have been lied to by underling because they are frightened to disagree with him
 

Hades

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Its not the west which forced Ukraine to apply for NATO membership. Its Russia which forced Ukraine to apply for NATO membership, because if they wouldn't then Russia would either force them to become a puppet state, or outright destroy Ukraine. Putin has only himself to blame. If he didn't want Ukraine to join NATO he shouldn't have repeatedly conspired to subjugate Ukraine. Invading or at least militarily intervening against the peoples of all his neighbors further gives Ukraine reasons to join NATO.

If Putin forced the choice on Ukraine to either join the west or get stripped of their independence then he has no right to be offended when they choose NATO. Because the only alternative to NATO Putin ever offered them was their own subjugation.
 
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Agema

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Its not the west which forced Ukraine to apply for NATO membership. Its Russia which forced Ukraine to apply for NATO membership, because if they wouldn't then Russia would either force them to become a puppet state, or outright destroy Ukraine. Putin has only himself to blame. If he didn't want Ukraine to join NATO he shouldn't have repeatedly conspired to subjugate Ukraine. Invading or at least militarily intervening against the peoples of all his neighbors further gives Ukraine reasons to join NATO.
But the point the weird left would make is that the security of countries such as the Baltic states, Ukraine, Georgia etc. is irrelevant and none of our business. If Russia chooses to threaten, coerce and invade their neighbours, the West's response should be nothing at all, because to do anything is Western imperialism and threatening poor, defenceless Russia.

Never mind that - and you can see elements of it in some of their rhetoric - that they are so fixated on the capitalist West as the enemy, that moving towards the West is literally the worst thing that could happen to them: up to and including being invaded by an autocratic and illiberal Russia.
 

Seanchaidh

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Yeah, the other option-- uhrm, not invading-- would've been just terrible.
For Russia it would have meant a continual weakening of their security situation as more and more weapons and training flow into Ukraine and either eventual subjugation by the United States or very likely a war later on that would be more difficult to win and even more likely to escalate into a nuclear apocalypse. They were losing the 'peace' (such as it was). Ultimately what this war is about is whether Russia is weak enough for the United States and NATO to bully it with impunity. All sides seem to agree that, no, it isn't, and Ukraine is paying the price. It is a price that the US and NATO deem worth it as they are still insisting that Zelensky be the one to negotiate any peace while at the same time not empowering Zelensky to negotiate on their behalf an end to sanctions or other conditions which the Russians want in exchange for peace. "Imperial annexation" is the only result that will satisfy the West because it will mean that Ukraine has indeed fought to the last Ukrainian and maximized the damage to Russia.

All of this is irrelevant, of course, because as we all seem to know it is the sovereign right of every country's leadership to help the United States bully other countries.
 

Hades

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Ultimately what this war is about is whether Russia is weak enough for the United States and NATO to bully it with impunity.
No the war is about whether Russia's neighbors should be weak enough for Russia to bully with impunity. And everyone except Russia agrees that they shouldn't be, because Russia has historically been awful to any country unfortunate enough to be its neighbor, a tradition Putin is dead set on restoring.

Its not about the west trying to suppress Russia, its Russia trying to suppress their neighbors, and finding NATO to be an obstacle to their ''right'' to subjugate their neighbors. Russia is not the country that's getting bullied, its the country that tries its hardest to bully others.