Ukraine

[Silvanus]

TL, DR, the war may be swinging in Russia's favour, and time may be on its side for a variety of reasons.

It may be. The situation in Donetsk and Luhansk seems hugely volatile and changeable on a day-to-day basis at the moment.

Sievierodonetsk appears to be the main theatre of war currently (being the largest city in Luhansk that isn't occupied by Russia or the LPR). It appears that Russia had succeeded in taking between 70 and 90% of the city, until a day or two ago, when the Ukrainian defence ministry claims a counteroffensive resulted in Ukraine recapturing ~20%, and now the city is about 50-50.

 

[Seanchaidh]

Literally zero foreign military bases were in Ukraine except Russian ones. Overwhelmingly more Russian weaponry and personnel in Ukraine before the war.

And as we all know, it's impossible to use weapons that were made in Russia against Russia. That's why the Ghost of Kiev was shot down, after all.

Hysteria.

History. Of NATO. Both its purpose and its actions taken toward other countries. What reason does Russia have to trust the peaceful intentions of the United States?

On a somewhat unrelated note, remember just after Trump won and Seanchaidh was angrily denying the possibility of any Russian interference in the election? I used to think it was because they supported Sanders and blamed the results on him not being chosen by the Democrats, but now I wonder if it wasn't because they support Putin.

Maybe it was because the evidence was scant in the first place and the allegations have done little other than fall apart upon closer inspection.

But no, it must be Putin!

Explain this.

Yes, I'm ignoring everything else because I don't care any more. This one needs an explanation.

His parents recently bought an expensive house in Rishpon. Unless they actually didn't and I've been misinformed. *shrug*

In any case, he'll be fine whatever happens to Ukraine, as he is fantastically rich; orders of magnitude above you or me.

 

[Seanchaidh]

The situation in Donetsk and Luhansk seems hugely volatile and changeable on a day-to-day basis at the moment.

As if any of us are in a position to have a clear apprehension of the situation there to begin with.

 

[bluegate]

And as we all know, it's impossible to use weapons that were made in Russia against Russia. That's why the Ghost of Kiev was shot down, after all.

The Ghost of Kiev was a propaganda piece though, wasn't it...

 

[Silvanus]

And as we all know, it's impossible to use weapons that were made in Russia against Russia. That's why the Ghost of Kiev was shot down, after all.

Having a little trouble understanding what point you think you're making, here. You believe the Russian personnel and Russian military bases using Russian weaponry were commanded by Ukraine to attack Russia?

Or you're... blaming Ukraine for the presence of foreign weaponry which.... Russia transported in?

History. Of NATO. Both its purpose and its actions taken toward other countries. What reason does Russia have to trust the peaceful intentions of the United States?

If it wishes to look to history, it can look to how Russia's territory has never been invaded or attacked by NATO, or Ukraine.

They needn't trust NATO's intentions. They can trust the fact that an invasion of Russia would be ruinously self-destructive, for zero benefit (economic or otherwise). And they can trust precedent, in that they've never actually attempted it or even threatened it. And that the only threats of a nuclear first strike have come from Russia.

Meanwhile, you also believe that Ukraine should wholly trust the peaceful intentions of Russia (to the point of disarming its own military, leaving it with zero ability to defend itself!)-- when Russia actually has invaded it, twice, and sponsored an insurgency, and stated it must be destroyed. What there is inspiring more trust, exactly? Because you want to go a great deal further than I do, in hobbling Ukraine's defensive capabilities.

Unless they actually didn't and I've been misinformed. *shrug*

Wouldn't be surprising, since most of the outlets I can find reporting on that are staggeringly racist.

As if any of us are in a position to have a clear apprehension of the situation there to begin with.

Eh, you've been happy enough to speak with arrogant certainty about the situation on the ground (in both Ukraine and in various other international conflicts) in the past.

Granted, that came to bite you in the ass in very dramatic fashion during the whole "they're not going to invade, you're all insane for thinking they'll invade" fiasco.

 

[The Rogue Wolf]

Granted, that came to bite you in the ass in very dramatic fashion during the whole "they're not going to invade, you're all insane for thinking they'll invade" fiasco.

Oh, he just sidestepped by insisting that Russia was "liberating" and "denazifying" the country (totally not an invasion!) through liberal use of artillery to explode children.

You know, the same thing he accuses the West of doing, but it's okay this time.

 

[Dalisclock]

Oh, he just sidestepped by insisting that Russia was "liberating" and "denazifying" the country (totally not an invasion!) through liberal use of artillery to explode children.

You know, the same thing he accuses the West of doing, but it's okay this time.

You don't understand. See, NATO and the US have done a lot of very bad things and they have never been punished thus Russia is completely innocent and everyone is just being mean to them.

That's pretty much Sean's entire fucking spiel in a nutshell, he's just really good at finding incredibly convoluted ways of repeating it over and over again. It's one very long anti-American Broken record that somehow excuses, sidesteps and apologizes for anything Russia does, has done or will do because the US is bad and Ukraine can just suck it.

 

[Agema]

It may be. The situation in Donetsk and Luhansk seems hugely volatile and changeable on a day-to-day basis at the moment.

Sievierodonetsk appears to be the main theatre of war currently (being the largest city in Luhansk that isn't occupied by Russia or the LPR). It appears that Russia had succeeded in taking between 70 and 90% of the city, until a day or two ago, when the Ukrainian defence ministry claims a counteroffensive resulted in Ukraine recapturing ~20%, and now the city is about 50-50.

Russia does appear to have changed tactics: basically flattening everything with artillery, missiles and air strikes to pound and exhaust the defenders, and then moving in.

However, I suspect it still has the same core problem that its troops are, basically, shit. It can make advances by focusing firepower and troops at where the Ukrainian forces are thin, but they still eventually need to pack in the frontline forces against strongpoints, and those forces still wilt when they finally hit opposition.

 

[Silvanus]

European shipping firms ‘making a mockery’ of Russia sanctions as oil cargoes double

Exclusive: Campaigners say EU-based shipping firms have made a ‘mockery’ of plans to sanction Russia

www.independent.co.uk

People have probably heard by now that the EU agreed a partial oil embargo-- banning oil imports to EU countries by sea (except Bulgaria), and phasing out other oil & petroleum imports over 6-8 months, with another exception for a major pipeline in Hungary. According to Ursula von der Leyen, it is aimed at reducing EU imports of Russian oil by 90% by the end of this year.

...only, EU-based companies continue to ferry oil from Russia to other countries, including China and India. To the point where EU companies are actually carrying more Russian oil now than when the war began.

Is it too much to ask for EU governments-- primarily those of Malta, Cyprus and Greece-- to prevent corporate war profiteering that's undermining the very sanctions they're supposed to be implementing?

 

[Silvanus]

UK to send long-range rocket artillery to Ukraine despite Russian threats

M270 launch systems have 50-mile range and can target Russian artillery that has been attacking cities in eastern Ukraine

www.theguardian.com

With the shift in Russian strategy to long-range shelling of cities, Ukraine has been requesting long-range weaponry from Europe and America, to allow it to target those emplacements. Most (including the US) have not agreed, but now the UK has agreed to send systems with a 50-mile range.

Putin has labelled it a provocation (because we seem to have accepted the insane idea that a target of invasion using weaponry to fight its invader is provoking that invader).

 

[Agema]

Putin has labelled it a provocation (because we seem to have accepted the insane idea that a target of invasion using weaponry to fight its invader is provoking that invader).

I'm not sure what the problem is: we're not interfering with a Russian-Ukrainian war, after all... because Putin declined to declare war.

Any time Putin doesn't want his troops to experience Ukraine's use of arms on its own sovereign territory, he can remove them from Ukrainian territory.

 

[tstorm823]

Most (including the US) have not agreed, but now the UK has agreed to send systems with a 50-mile range.

Edit: didn't realize the link was going to format that way, you can click the title to get the text article. "3-minute listen" is still slower than reading.

 

[Silvanus]

Edit: didn't realize the link was going to format that way, you can click the title to get the text article. "3-minute listen" is still slower than reading.

I stand corrected, I'd misremembered and didn't check.

 

[Terminal Blue]

His parents recently bought an expensive house in Rishpon. Unless they actually didn't and I've been misinformed. *shrug*

In any case, he'll be fine whatever happens to Ukraine, as he is fantastically rich; orders of magnitude above you or me.

Yeah. Don't. I lived through one round of George Galloway's degeneration and I'm still recovering from the nuclear cringe. I don't need to see that again.

 

[Terminal Blue]

TL, DR, the war may be swinging in Russia's favour, and time may be on its side for a variety of reasons.

I feel like the problem is being overstated.

There are some countries where I think it will matter. I don't think the UK government is going to maintain the same level of support once people stop being interested. The invasion was a convenient political tool to foster the kind of jingoism the Tories get off on, but ultimately Boris came into power partly with the aid of Russian disinformation campaigns, and I don't think his government have any principled stake in this conflict at all.

But frankly, the UK contribution so far has been kind of pathetic anyway. I don't think Western European countries were ever going to send much more than they already have. The UK does have a lot of good quality military equipment, but it doesn't have huge stockpiles of equipment that isn't being used, and if it comes down to a choice between Ukraine losing or the army being noticeably weakened, I don't think any degree of support for Ukraine would make that choice politically viable.

In terms of who actually is doing a lot. Obviously there's the US, but the US has vast stockpiles of cold war era military equipment that it was just going to decommission eventually anyway. For all the talk of the stinger and javelin missile reserves being depleted, the US military doesn't really have any need for them. There's never going to be a situation where the US fights a war without massive air superiority. The US basically loses nothing by sending its military surplus to Ukraine, so it's kind of a no brainer to do so. At absolute worst, it might mean certain systems have to be replaced quicker, but the military industrial complex isn't going to complain about that.

Then there's Poland, which has made very clear they are ride or die for Ukraine (probably because Russian state TV keeps putting them next on the list for "denazification"). Poland have already put far more on the line in terms of supporting Ukraine than basically anyone else, certainly relative to the size of the Polish economy, and I don't see that changing because frankly, if it was going to, it would have already.

It's the same story in the Baltic states, they just don't have the same resources.

So yeah, support dropping off from Western Europe is likely to be a problem, but again these countries weren't doing much anyway and have probably given most of what they were ever going to give. I can't see support dropping off where it actually matters. At the same time, Russia doesn't have infinite stockpiles itself, and the stockpiles it does have are in pretty shitty condition due to the ridiculous levels of military corruption.

I'm not saying everything is fine, or that Russia won't ultimately win the war of attrition. Frankly, if NATO wants Ukraine to actually win it needs to do more, not sustain the same level of support. But I don't think we're going to see Ukrainian army collapse from lack of support or equipment.

 

[Dalisclock]

UK to send long-range rocket artillery to Ukraine despite Russian threats

M270 launch systems have 50-mile range and can target Russian artillery that has been attacking cities in eastern Ukraine

www.theguardian.com

With the shift in Russian strategy to long-range shelling of cities, Ukraine has been requesting long-range weaponry from Europe and America, to allow it to target those emplacements. Most (including the US) have not agreed, but now the UK has agreed to send systems with a 50-mile range.

Putin has labelled it a provocation (because we seem to have accepted the insane idea that a target of invasion using weaponry to fight its invader is provoking that invader).

Punching the bully after they've been kicking the shit out of you makes you just as bad, don't you know?

 

[Silvanus]

Russia has set up courts in occupied territories of Ukraine, and has sentenced three prisoners of war (two British and one Moroccan) to death. It followed a coerced confession broadcast on RIA Novosti.

Britons sentenced to death after ‘show trial’ in Russian-occupied Ukraine

Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner were captured while fighting in Ukrainian army

www.theguardian.com

Russia obviously has no legal power to pass criminal judgements in different countries, on citizens of third countries. And the act itself is in breach of the Geneva Conventions regardless of where it took place. For all the talk of "provocation", this is probably the most provocative act possible towards the western backers of Ukraine.

 

[Agema]

Russia obviously has no legal power to pass criminal judgements in different countries, on citizens of third countries. And the act itself is in breach of the Geneva Conventions regardless of where it took place. For all the talk of "provocation", this is probably the most provocative act possible towards the western backers of Ukraine.

The use of exotic things like polonium and novichok to murder people on Western soil was deliberate: the intent was for everyone to know it was Russia, despite the facade of official denials. The brazenness is part of the point - to belittle the West for how impotent or unwilling it is to do anything about it. That is the mindset of the Russian regime. Flagrantly murdering POWs (with just enough plausible deniability to suit their most ardent defenders) is just one in a long list of blatant provocations to show off in their way how powerful Russia is.

The other aim, of course, is to sow dissent and to crudely pressure Western government to nudge Ukraine into handing back to Russia lots of Russian POWs. After all, Russia has a manpower problem, and a population increasingly suspicious that its army is taking much higher casualties than they're being told.

 

[thestor]

The use of exotic things like polonium and novichok to murder people on Western soil was deliberate: the intent was for everyone to know it was Russia, despite the facade of official denials. The brazenness is part of the point - to belittle the West for how impotent or unwilling it is to do anything about it. That is the mindset of the Russian regime. Flagrantly murdering POWs (with just enough plausible deniability to suit their most ardent defenders) is just one in a long list of blatant provocations to show off in their way how powerful Russia is.

This. Europe has spend the last 20 years appeasing Russia and not humiliating it and being extra nice. We've danced the Chamberlain for the Kremlin. We ought to change our tune.

 

[thestor]

No idea. Sometimes I think you drunk-post.

I demand you apologize.

To alcohol.

To lay blame for such posts on alcohol is really uncalled for.