Something I will talk about in a video soon but which I wanted to share with you here. Especially if you have friends in Russia.
I have seen a lot of talk, on social media, on TV and even in papers, full of optimism in anticipation of the supposedly impending collapse of the Putin regime. I am far more pessimistic and caution you against this optimism. I have Russian friends and over the last weeks they have all left Russia for Estonia, Finland, and Germany, and should you have Russian friends who oppose Putin - I would highly advise you to talk them into leaving their country. Because I believe things are going to become very grim in Russia.
I studied history at the Institute for Slavic cultural studies in Vienna, I have taken a special interest in Russian history. And let me tell you, the one thing that has happened throughout Russian history whenever a Russian leader went to war - were domestic crackdowns and increasing authoritarianism. The only exception to this was when the Soviet Union lost the war in Afghanistan, and when the Tsar lost the first world war, and those are exceptions because they were tied to a collapse of the Russian state structures themselves into chaos and anarchy (The end of communism and the end of the Russian monarchy)
I assume that most of you live in democratic countries. And if you do, you need to keep in mind that you live in a civil society with political powers held by the public. When we go to war as democracies, our societies have the right to critique and influence the war through electoral means and public pressure. For example, Spain joined the Iraq war in 2003, the Spanish public hated it, and a year later the Spanish people voted their government out and the new government instantly pulled Spain out of the Iraq war.
That does not happen in non-democratic countries. When Saddam Hussain lost his war against Kuwait he started a genocide against Shia Arabs. When the Nazis realized they had lost the second world war in 1943 they intensified the Holocaust. When the Ottomans started losing the first world war they committed the Armenian genocide. When Pakistan lost its 1971 war against India it resulted in a coup and brutal authoritarian regime. When Stalin lost the Winter War he launched a brutal purge of Soviet Intellectuals and military leaders.
Authoritarian regimes, can not admit to mistakes. There is no bigger mistake for an authoritarian ruler than losing a war. Accountability for war always lies with those who start it, and rather than admitting a mistake or a defeat an authoritarian ruler will always crackdown on civil dissent first. The war is currently not looking good for Putin. It is possible that he may lose it. What is certain already is that this war has come at an enormous cost to the Russian people. And I believe Putin will blame that cost on some fall-guy in his government (probably the boss of the internal security services) and then crackdown on any and all remaining public dissent with a ruthlessness that we have not seen in Russia in decades.
If you have Russian friends in Russia who oppose this war or oppose Putin, you should ask them to leave Russia. I hope I am wrong. I really hope I am wrong. But, if the study of history is by any means an indicator by which one can predict future developments, then I believe there are very dark times ahead for Russia. And that we will see Russia return to the type of iron-fisted authoritarianism that we have not seen since some of the darkest days of the Soviet Union.
apnews.com
