Shit! we forgot an election thread for the midterms. Here it is now.

Thaluikhain

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Some truth to this (example: Obama and Bush are now besties rather than Obama see Bush punished for war crimes: Trump never really wanted HRC "locked up") but man they keep trying. Twice impeached? People around Trump being persecuted out the wazzoo? 2 impeachments? They were telling their rank and file the Jan 6 trials would likely end with the committee recommending criminal charges against Trump?
Politicians promise lots of stuff they don't intend to deliver (I bet, off the top of your head, you can hink of some things Biden promised that he's gone back on already), and while Trump might be safe, smaller figures nearby might not be. If you can't go after he big fish, grab one or two smaller fish to make it look like you are doing something.

Though, Jan 6 is a bit different, that one could come back to bite him. Election fraud and ripping off the little people isn't against the rules, even if you do more of it than is usually tolerated. But an open attack on The People who Matter, not just The People is another thing altogether. Sure, they don't want to set a precedent that people loike Trump can be held accountable for his actions, because they are people like Trump. But they really don't want to set a precedent where people like them can end up in actual danger. Everyone knew the rules and kept things civil enough to avoid that, because nobody really benefits from crossing that line, but Trump mis-stepped badly.
 

gorfias

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Politicians promise lots of stuff they don't intend to deliver (I bet, off the top of your head, you can hink of some things Biden promised that he's gone back on already), and while Trump might be safe, smaller figures nearby might not be. If you can't go after he big fish, grab one or two smaller fish to make it look like you are doing something.

Though, Jan 6 is a bit different, that one could come back to bite him. Election fraud and ripping off the little people isn't against the rules, even if you do more of it than is usually tolerated. But an open attack on The People who Matter, not just The People is another thing altogether. Sure, they don't want to set a precedent that people loike Trump can be held accountable for his actions, because they are people like Trump. But they really don't want to set a precedent where people like them can end up in actual danger. Everyone knew the rules and kept things civil enough to avoid that, because nobody really benefits from crossing that line, but Trump mis-stepped badly.
Be fun to start a thread about broken promises/failed initiatives. I have a video in mind if I can find it and will start one. Doesn't have to be partisan, just, what are some of the more outrageous ones.
 

Silvanus

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Any "what would have happened if..." question is counterfactual analysis. That's what counterfactual means. Implying that millions of fewer people would be dying from climate related deaths if we weren't burning fossil fuels is counterfactual analysis. Your suggestion is that all else being equal, we'd be better off if we hadn't been using fossil fuels for the last century, but if we hadn't used fossil fuels, all else wouldn't be equal. It's bad analysis.
I didn't say, or mean, "all else being equal". I am well aware that countless other things would change.

It's an enormous leap to argue that those other factors would tally up to equal or exceed the excess deaths and ecological devastation currently caused by climate change. You haven't identified factors that could even approach them; just offered vague speculation.

You may as well be arguing that we can't attribute excess deaths to Jeffrey Dahmer, because 'all else wouldn't be equal' in Milwaukee without him.

On top of that, it's unclear that's even true, as a warming climate could just as much increase arable land away from the equator and prevent some of the millions of annual cold-related deaths. You're trying to isolate the use of fossil fuels from the civilization building consequences of their use, focusing on a single side effect of those fossil fuels, and still only considering the downsides.
The "warming climate can cause just as many positives as negatives!" canard has been roundly rejected by every analysis into the impacts of climate change. It's not even close.
 

Silvanus

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There's a mix of information there.

-Excess Deaths: Human deaths from natural disasters have plummeted over the course of the 20th/21st century, even as the human population has increased. It's something like a 98% reduction.
Owing almost entirely to improved healthcare, improved infrastructure, and expanded relief efforts-- which we would still have in a world that was developing with cleaner energy.

On the other hand, the natural disasters we currently have to contend with are at a higher frequency, and have a higher likelihood of greater intensity, as a result of climate change, which we wouldn't have in a world developing with cleaner energy.

-Life Expectancy: Human life expectancy has skyrocketed over the same time period, and it's a trend that's true of every continent on Earth.
Yep. Again, owing to factors that we'd have regardless of our attachment to fossil fuels. Areas that suffer the most from climate change-- the global south, and urban areas blighted by smog-- have lower life expectancy than the global average as a direct result.

This isn't an argument against climate change being an issue (which it is), or that we have to get off fossil fuels (which we have to), or that climate change is having a deletrious effect right now (which it is), or that LEDCs are more vulnerable than MEDCs (which they are), but if we're dealing with counterfactuals (say the Industrial Revolution never occurred), then the facts are that there'd be far fewer humans, living far poorer lives. By literally any measure of human wellbeing, humanity's never been doing better in the period we're living in now.
There's a reason I worded it originally as I did: "too soon was over a century ago". Even in my own preferred counterfactual, I was looking to a world in which the Industrial Revolution did occur. I'm envisaging a world in which we transferred in the century since.

By any measure, we as a species on average are doing better now than almost any period in history, I do get that. But vast swathes of the world don't experience any significantly improved quality of life as a result: billions continue to live in poverty (with poverty actually increasing in sub-Saharan Africa), and wealth inequality is worse today than it has been for centuries. And these are the places worst affected by climate change. So while the benefits are reaped by the global North, the dangers are experienced by the global South. We're not all in this together.

And the world as a whole is doing worse to fuel that comfort: the rate of species extinction is sky-high, as well as the rate of deforestation.
 
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tstorm823

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as well as the rate of deforestation.
The world is currently expanding the amount of forest overall. Reforestation is outpacing deforestation. A lot of that is the deliberate actions of humans, but it's not unlikely climate change also contributes to that.
 

XsjadoBlaydette

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Fascinating specimen regurgitated from the culture wars' catatonic weekend orgy has to be corrected by other specimen regurgitated from the same culture wars weekend orgy.


(Goddamn, hadn't noticed the title on first watch, hate how ppl always do those titles with caps highlighted words, been seeing even respectable professionals use them. is like trying to work with the algorithm just turns everyone into headline writers for The Express)
 
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Hades

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Trump is a sinking ship and the rats are deserting him, and he's made lots of enemies, but he's still very much one of the elite. The elite do not want a precedent for members of the elite to be held responsible for their actions. If Trump gets locked up for crimes he committed as PotUS, then when the GOP get in next time Biden and any Dem president since him face the same, whether or not they've committed any crimes.

Hell, Trump was breaking the law before he got the power of being/having been PotUS. It's more or less guaranteed that any given super-rich person does. The rich aren't suddenly going to grow a conscience and stop treading on the little people.
When comparing the approaches of the Republican party towards Trump and Nixon I think it partially has to do about the old Republican party not being nearly as corrupt as the current one. But I also think that to some extend its a question of class. Trump is indeed one of the elites. He's ''one of theirs'' so of course they close ranks around him, even if he's guilty as sin. He's an openly corrupt businessman, the exact sort of group the party caters towards, and where many of their own party member come from.

Nixon on the other hand really was an outsider. A pleb who wasn't born into extreme wealth but had to work to get where he was. Had he been from a high class they might have done more to protect him.
 
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XsjadoBlaydette

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Hawki

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Owing almost entirely to improved healthcare, improved infrastructure, and expanded relief efforts-- which we would still have in a world that was developing with cleaner energy.
That's debatable - it really depends on how much faith you have in technology.

For instance, improved infrastructure. Where do you think stuff like concrete comes from? Renewables are great for electricity generation, de-carbonizing industry/infrastructure is much more difficult. Stuff like expanded infrastructure, quick travel, satellite warning systems...fossil fuels made that possible, much as I hate to say it.

Yep. Again, owing to factors that we'd have regardless of our attachment to fossil fuels. Areas that suffer the most from climate change-- the global south, and urban areas blighted by smog-- have lower life expectancy than the global average as a direct result.

There's a reason I worded it originally as I did: "too soon was over a century ago". Even in my own preferred counterfactual, I was looking to a world in which the Industrial Revolution did occur. I'm envisaging a world in which we transferred in the century since.
Again, sure, but I'm not even sure if that's possible. On one hand, renewables have indeed been held back by the fossil fuel industry (and nuclear as well), on the other, the drop in renewables' cost is a very recent development. I'd love a world where we started transitioning to renewables as soon as we knew about climate change (which was the late 19th century), I'm not sure how feasible it is. But even then, fossil fuels have still helped human wellbeing. They're not the only thing (e.g. health), but the trend between energy use and human wellbeing has been linear until relatively recently.

By any measure, we as a species on average are doing better now than almost any period in history, I do get that. But vast swathes of the world don't experience any significantly improved quality of life as a result: billions continue to live in poverty (with poverty actually increasing in sub-Saharan Africa), and wealth inequality is worse today than it has been for centuries. And these are the places worst affected by climate change. So while the benefits are reaped by the global North, the dangers are experienced by the global South. We're not all in this together.
Well, yes, I agree, the global South is being hit harder than the global North. As for wealth inequality, you might be understating it (I don't think it's ever been higher in human history), though the current trends are that wealth inequality is decreasing between countries, while increasing within countries. And yes, poverty did increase fairly recently thanks to Covid, but the overall trend of poverty is down, globally.

And the world as a whole is doing worse to fuel that comfort: the rate of species extinction is sky-high, as well as the rate of deforestation.
Species extinction, yep, deforestation is another matter. Though since you and tstorm have commented on it, what's been left out is that even if the rate of reforestation/aforestation is greater than deforestation, deforestation arguably matters more as:

a) Older trees take in more carbon than newer trees.

b) Deforestation is highest in the tropics, where the greatest amount of biodiversity is - we lose more from deforestation in the Amazon than, say, Europe, for instance (I hate to play that game, but it's the game we have to.)

c) Afforestation doesn't help biodiversity since monocultures are just that - monocultures. It's true that the amount of greenery has increased over Earth, but new forests, plantations or otherwise, aren't as healthy/biodiverse as old growth forests/rainforests.
 

meiam

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Nixon on the other hand really was an outsider. A pleb who wasn't born into extreme wealth but had to work to get where he was. Had he been from a high class they might have done more to protect him.
My reading as someone who was alive at the time was that Nixon was willing to do anything to get his way and did a shit ton of unethical stuff to get where he got but he actually seem like he wanted to help people rather than just abuse his position for wealth fame and power.

Its easy to forget but he setup the EPA, massively increase funding for government healthcare and desegregated school (yeah I know each of these need like 17 *), modern republican could easily stomach the watergate, but setting up the EPA!?
 
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Silvanus

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Your source's data in not a complete global set, stops at 2015
I'd love to believe that the trend dramatically reversed in the last 7 years, but given that 3 of those years featured a Brazilian President drastically increasing the deforestation of the world's largest rainforest, I find that doubtful.

and so far as I can tell makes no claims about global totals.
It has an interactive map where you can check the net increases/decreases in forest coverage for all countries that have provided data, which includes almost all of those with globally significant forest cover.
 

Silvanus

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That's debatable - it really depends on how much faith you have in technology.

For instance, improved infrastructure. Where do you think stuff like concrete comes from? Renewables are great for electricity generation, de-carbonizing industry/infrastructure is much more difficult. Stuff like expanded infrastructure, quick travel, satellite warning systems...fossil fuels made that possible, much as I hate to say it.
They made those things possible in the specific timeframe we managed it, perhaps.


Again, sure, but I'm not even sure if that's possible. On one hand, renewables have indeed been held back by the fossil fuel industry (and nuclear as well), on the other, the drop in renewables' cost is a very recent development. I'd love a world where we started transitioning to renewables as soon as we knew about climate change (which was the late 19th century), I'm not sure how feasible it is. But even then, fossil fuels have still helped human wellbeing. They're not the only thing (e.g. health), but the trend between energy use and human wellbeing has been linear until relatively recently.
That's a correlation. Fossil fuels have sped up the expansion of infrastructure and travel, and have made a great deal of money leading to a great deal of (very imbalanced) investment, which has sometimes sped growth... and at other times driven exploitation and the transfer of wealth from poor to rich.
 
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