Ukraine

RhombusHatesYou

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I think the only reason they haven't yet is because the airspace is still contested and A-10's probably wouldn't last long. Russian Air defense systems are apparently pretty decent.
Yeah, once you've got a decent SAM network they're pretty vulnerable...

Not to mention operational doctrine makes them susceptible to suddenly encountering high voltage power lines and tall trees.
 
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Godzillarich(aka tf2godz)

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So China released the 12 point plan on ending the Ukrainian War. Ukrranie wasn't allowed to put in there inport which is a bad sign.
Here is the full list.

Let's go over
1. Respecting the Sovereignty of all Countries
While this is a good thing this is basically Captain Obvious. the full explanation of this point is saying nothing with a lot of word. It also doesn't really point out that Russia invaded Ukraine, which is also a bad sign.

2. Abandoning the Cold War Mentality
Not really much to say on this one a lot of nothing when you read the full statment, its it's basically (why can't we be friends) which is insultingly simple statement for a war especially when they say confects are complex in the same statement.

3 Ceasing Hostilities and 4. Resuming Peace Talks
Once again easier said than done because both sides have to agree to it, if the line stay where they are russia wins so Ukraine will continue.

5. Resolving the Humanitarian Crisis
This is already happening, so I don't know what's the point

6. Protecting Civilians and Prisoners of War
Once again, something that's already happening, I don't understand why this is a point.

7. Keeping Nuclear Power Plants Safe
Finally something that's not hot air. Nuclear Power Plants have been a big issue with this war, mainly for being used a military bases. although this is something that can sadly only be resolved post war by making it a warcrime.

8. Reducing Strategic Risks
This is basic don't use nukes, which I completely agree, and is the closest thing China get to criticizing russia, but this is Captain Obvious

9. Facilitating Grain Exports
Again, Captain Obvious. This has been agreed to by all parties involved, why are you bring this up.

10. Stopping Unilateral Sanctions, and 11. Keeping Industrial and Supply Chains Stable
Okay here is the big one. Which is sad that this is the one with the most to say. Lifting sanctions should be discussed after the war is over. Lifting sanctions will do nothing but benefit Russia's war effort. I've been trying to not use whataboutism but it's funny that China condemned sanctions even though they've been known to sanction people that acknowledge Taiwan as a country.

12. Promoting Post-Conflict Reconstruction
Lastly, Captain Obvious, nothing to say.

This list just feels like China could just say they tried, nothing besides the sanction and nuclear point there's nothing to it.
 

RhombusHatesYou

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Chairman Xi is now mad at you and your Geshin Impact account will be banned
I don't have one so what's he going to do, put a massive, punitive tarrif on the major exports to China from the region I live in? He's already done that, the prick.

OTOH, for any red wine drinkers, now is the best time to get Aussie reds.
 
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Satinavian

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That thought did occur, but it depends what the universities are teaching. If it's subjects like engineering, the regime does need those people, and without wanting to sound harsh to engineers, dangerous critical thinking isn't always a requirement.
That is not how it works.
Engineers and scientists need to share and access knowledge. You can't control their information as well as for most other citizens without seriously hampering them.
And they tend to be very good at math. That makes them spot a lot if inconsistencies and problems in propaganda.

Even during cold war times, when the Eastern block pushed STEM a lot at their universities, they always had problems with this clientele and always had to monitor them extra closely.

This list just feels like China could just say they tried, nothing besides the sanction and nuclear point there's nothing to it.
Oh, it is actually surprisingly honest :

- China really does not want nuclear escalation and has been firm about that the whole time.

- China doesn't like how the war impacts the global economy. It has enough economic problems of its own and is also not happy abouts its companies having to choose between the western and the Russian market.


What is missing is of course some idea how to actually make peace. But i would guess China just doesn't have one.
 
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Ag3ma

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This list just feels like China could just say they tried, nothing besides the sanction and nuclear point there's nothing to it.
What is missing is of course some idea how to actually make peace. But i would guess China just doesn't have one.
Yes, that's quite the vapid list of platitudes.

When China said that it had something to say, I assumed there was some actual practical policy suggestions coming. Instead, we get the emptiest of milquetoast niceties where China pretends at global responsibility. But then, this is China all over. It's every bit as much a fanged and clawed global competitor as any other country, and just has its own cultural style of trying to hypocritically posture as a responsible global player.

China's national interest is very much in supporting its ally against the West: it's never going to bring Russia to heel. The only reason it's not long since shipping arms and other support across is because Russia carried out naked aggression and China does not wanting to be tarred with condoning that either.
 
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Absent

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I think we can all agree that if Russia conquers Ukraine, installs a Russia-friendly government and restores the 2014 (pre-/post-Crimea) borders, that would satisfy China's idea of respecting sovereignty.
China's idea of respecting sovereignty is conquering Taïwan. Countries have differing sovereignty and border claims. "This frontier infringes on our historical sovereignty", "we never recognised this part as foreign", "our nation used to stretch over there before that illicit event", it's a legitimising discourse for many conquests or conquest fantasies (Greece and Turkey could keep invading each other forever, according to each one's nationalists). Maybe more internally than internationally, but China tends to be a bit arbitrary when it comes to weighting national interests versus international consensus.

So I could very well imagine China and Russia justifying the annexation of part or all of Ukraine in the name of Russia's restored sovereignty. Yet again, I think China will support the solution and phrasing that is the most consensually binding for its recuperation of Taiwan.
 

Gordon_4

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I think the only reason they haven't yet is because the airspace is still contested and A-10's probably wouldn't last long. Russian Air defense systems are apparently pretty decent.

Don't get me wrong, they have their uses but they can't just soak up bullets/missiles like some crazy Ace Combat plane.
Now I'm pretty pig ignorant about combined arms, but I recall a conversation between people (I presume) weren't that inferred an A-10 is meant to operate in uncontested airspace as a close air support platform for ground based forces such as infantry and light armour in ground that is still contested. So if there are SAM or other defences in play, something else has to go in and blow them to kingdom come first. I assume this is one of many jobs the F-35 is supposed to do.
 
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Ag3ma

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China's idea of respecting sovereignty is conquering Taïwan.
Here, I have some very limited sympathy for China.

I would personally take the view that a pre-eminent issue is the right of self-determination, and as Taiwan is sufficiently autonomous and distinct from China, that principle is dominant and China should accept Taiwan's independence and statehood should it choose to declare it. Therein lies the issue: neither China nor Taiwan officially considers the two separate countries. As a result, I accept a legitimate argument exists for China to view Taiwan as a form of "breakaway province", and that necessarily extends to a technical justification to demand its re-incorporation.

I would also note in a general sense that although I advocate self-determination, it has risks of misuse: "self-determination" is a core argument Seanchaidh has deployed to justify Russia invading and dismembering neighbouring countries such as Ukraine and Georgia.

At any rate, Taiwan and Ukraine are not parallels. Where Taiwan might not be agreed upon as an independent country, Ukraine is very clearly so as officially agreed by Russia and the other successor states of the USSR. This makes any argument that Russia (/USSR) once owned Ukraine, or other nebulous claims of shared historical nationhood, null and void.
 

Absent

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This makes any argument that Russia (/USSR) once owned Ukraine, or other nebulous claims of shared historical nationhood, null and void.
Yes but again, null and void in the eyes of whom ? Because we are not in the world of international consensus that we expected, we're in a world of might-is-right, "I interpret it that way and if you disagree then try and stop me", especially when it comes to China (nine-dash line, etc). Some narratives don't fly with the UN majority, but as long as they fly with internal politics, popular support and veto rights...

What I'm saying is that, when China vaguely speaks of "Respecting the Sovereignty of all Countries" and avoiding "double standards" (especially without giving the explicit example of Putin's conquest war), it can take whatever opportunistc meaning that China will see fit at the time. Foreign opinions on the matter might not matter a lot.

If practice, if it comes to that, the whole statement could be presented and rationalized, by China, as compatible with their support of Putin's conquests (either "reclaiming" or "securing" russian sovereign territory). In a "this is what we, on our side, were actually meaning in fact" way.
 

Ag3ma

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Yes but again, null and void in the eyes of whom ? Because we are not in the world of international consensus that we expected, we're in a world of might-is-right, "I interpret it that way and if you disagree then try and stop me", especially when it comes to China (nine-dash line, etc). Some narratives don't fly with the UN majority, but as long as they fly with internal politics, popular support and veto rights...

What I'm saying is that, when China vaguely speaks of "Respecting the Sovereignty of all Countries" and avoiding "double standards" (especially without giving the explicit example of Putin's conquest war), it can take whatever opportunistc meaning that China will see fit at the time. Foreign opinions on the matter might not matter a lot.

If practice, if it comes to that, the whole statement could be presented and rationalized, by China, as compatible with their support of Putin's conquests (either "reclaiming" or "securing" russian sovereign territory). In a "this is what we, on our side, were actually meaning in fact" way.
Yes, I agree. It's intentionally vague because China will just roll with whatever interpretation suits at the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine war to nod sagely and affirm how glad it is that global peace is secured. (Then unilaterally grab a few more coral reefs off the coast off the Philippines / Vietnam, land disputed with India, and invade Taiwanese and Japanese airspace).

International law has some weight, because at least some people think it should be respected, all across the world. This was much of the damage of the Iraq invasion 20 years ago: the palpable sense that the USA and UK - already little loved - simply ignored international opinion and law. That damage and hypocrisy has ramifications: I'm sure it significantly contributes to the ambivalence of many southern hemisphere nations over Ukraine.

As a new and burgeoning global power, China is I think quite sensitive to international opinion, and well aware that wrong steps will hold it back. It seems to me to employ an exaggerated neutrality to avoid generating the sort of fear and anger that countries have toward the old European / American imperial powers. That will last until it has amassed enough power and security to unleash its own imperialism without having to be so concerned what the minnows think.
 
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Ag3ma

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Hahahaha... no.
China is heavily invested (financially and diplomatically) in establishing strong trade links, especially with resource-rich countries to secure supply lines for its industry. These sorts of links can be maintained with a degree of brute force, but without that, money and favourable perceptions can count for a lot. The minute nations fear China as the same sort of domineering, exploitative power that the Europeans / US were, they have no reason to favour China.

Given China is still low on brute force compared to the USA, a relatively clean international perception helps China build up its investments and influence in places like Africa and South America. Especially because people in ex-colonial nations can have a strong feeling about imperialism: they could perceive China invading Taiwan very negatively, in the frame of their people's own one-time subjugation.
 
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