This is going to be a running theme in your response, so I'll speak to it generally now: conceits of fiction are metaphor to express social commentary. That's true whether it's using dragons as metaphor for nuclear weapons, hive mind insect aliens as metaphor for Communism, the obliteration of hive mind insect aliens as metaphor for fascism, androids as metaphor for race or fears of automation, cyborgs as metaphor for Jesus and the last temptation, vampires as metaphor for non-cisgendered and non-heterosexual identity, zombies as metaphor for consumerism, or "cyberspace" as metaphor for globalization and the loss of cultural identity.
Capeshit is no exception. You may not like it or find it particularly persuasive, but it is still there.
I don't have the time or inclination to go through all of those examples, but I'll try and boil things down to a few points:
-Can those things be used as metaphors for what you say? Yes (e.g. in the novel Starship Troopers, the Arachnids are a communist metaphor)
-Are those things always used as metaphors? No (that the Arachnids are used as said metaphor doesn't mean that every bug species in sci-fi is automatically using a metaphor)
-Are conceits of fiction always a metaphor to express commentary? No (I write fiction, I can assure you that not everything is a metaphor or an allagory or what have you)
One last point on the metaphor thing, with cyberspace and AI, those things are beyond the realm of metaphors, because both exist in some form right now. I think I had a debate with Silvanus awhile back about AIs being used as a metaphor for slavery or something, and while that's certainly possible to do, I disagree with the notion that any depiction of AI rebelling must be a reference to real-world history as opposed to the real-world concerns of AI becoming manifest.
What? That has no bearing on whether or not it can or should be interpreted as metaphor for the Manhattan project.
Disagree, it does, in my mind. It's like saying "Hydra is a metaphor for the Nazis" when the Nazis already exist. It's pretty redundant to have metaphor and the literal depiction of the same thing in the same story.
Here we upgrade "what?" to "what the actual fuck?" This is literally the entire plot of the first two movies. The Nazis started their super soldier project first, initiating an arms race. The United States won that arms race in WWII; after the war, the Soviet Union acquired the technology through espionage, and implemented their own program thereby continuing the arms race through the Cold War.
Now you should ask yourself if any of that sounds remotely familiar. It should, because it's the story of how nuclear weapons were developed and the start of the nuclear arms race.
Not sure how any of that disproves what I said.
MAD shaped global policy in the Cold War. It altered the very nature of war, because it was no longer tenable for superpowers to engage in direct conflict without risking mutual annihilation. It triggered proxy wars in various places instead.
What we have in the MCU doesn't really apply to that. First, the "arms race," as you describe, is barely conducted on a national level. The US gets one supersoldier that's absent after WWII, Hydra gets the Winter Soldier, the USSR gets Red Guardian, etc. That's not exactly "supersoldier proliferation" as opposed to the thousands, sometimes tens of thousands of nukes in arsenals. Second, and more importantly, nothing about supersoldiers in this context changes the nature of war. As far as I'm aware, everything in the MCU from 1945 to 2012 (Battle of New York) more or less progresses in the same way. That certainly changes in-universe with the Avengers, but in the period in question, the super-soldier serum does nothing to change how countries conducted their affairs in the real world. Nukes still exist, MAD still exists, standing armies still exist. Third, multiple countries pursued nukes in the real-world, in the MCU, we have 2-3, none of which really overlap.
So are androids, but we don't debate whether androids can be or are used as metaphor and vehicle for social commentary.
Except I disagree that androids are social comentary ipso facto. Can they be? Yes. Are they always? No.
And? Captain America had been around in the comics for sixty years before 9/11, but when 9/11 happened the character was rewritten to reflect social commentary on post-9/11 collective anxieties, introspect on the US's role in geopolitics, and the war on terror. It was the seed for the most famous and popular comic storyline Marvel ever produced: Civil War.
Yes, but the MCU Cap wasn't rewritten to be a commentary on MAD, was he? Stuff like Winter Soldier certianly touches on the issues you mention, but the Cold War? Not really.
Also, wait, Civil War is popular? That's news to me, and having read it, I didn't see any of what you're describing. If the whole 'civil war' is meant to be a metaphor for what you describe, it's a piss-poor one.
We're counting "given an anecdote or two by a guilty doctor who's already had a few" as informed consent, now?
Um, pretty much? I understood that Steve knew what he was getting into before that.
"It doesn't work because they didn't treat other countries' militaries and weapons programs seriously".
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I musta missed the part where we do in the real world, either. Probably shouldn't have been watching those sizzle reels of T-72 tanks getting ammo racked and exploding, insurgents mercing each other through poor planning and training to a funny soundtrack, and Apache and drone footage of other insurgents fucking goats and camels while the crews laugh their asses off on hot mics.
The people don't treat the attempts seriously because the film itself doesn't. The film, both in-universe and out-universe, is saying "look at this and laugh." And if IM2 was meant to convey the start of a mech arms race, where
is that mech arms race? Because the MCU has been going for 25 years, and so far, mechs still aren't a thing. Your super-soldier analogy has more water than this because more than one super-soldier exists in the setting, so far, a handful of characters have ever used Iron Man suits, and all of them are American.
"Iron Man 2 could not have had social commentary because Iron Man 2 was not Age of Ultron".
Well first, I disagree that Age of Ultron has any social commentary. It's the stock "AI goes evil, tries to destroy the world." I need a bit more for it to be social commentary. Heck, it doesn't even need to be that cerebral (see the Terminator films), but AoU doesn't even manage that. It has nothing to say on AI or any related topic, it's a popcorn movie where evil robots try to destroy the world, good guys save it, the end.
Second, what other films may or may not do is irrelevant. IM2 doesn't have social commentary because it doesn't. Certainly nothing worthy of the name.
You're not sure if weaponizing emergent technologies is a military thing?
Oh absolutely the military would do that (though civilian technologies come out of the military as well, so go figure), but in this case? The arc reactor was developed by Tony Stark, then used by Tony Stark, and hasn't gone beyond that. Hammer's drones don't use arc reactors, least as far as I'm aware, nor is there any proliferation of arc reactor technology in the MCU. Heck, it's arguably something of a plothole that it isn't - I mean, wouldn't the world want clean energy from arc reactors?
Compare the science fiction movie, to fictionalized film adaptations of real-world events? Shit, I should have thought about that one. Clearly, District 9 doesn't even belong in the same building as Escape from Pretoria, Sarafina, Invictus, or Cry Freedom, either.
You've missed the point. It's not a question of what's real or not, it's a question of the depth of the subject matter. You can absolutely have a fictional world/story that works well as metaphor/allagory. I haven't seen it, but my understanding is that District 9 is a metaphor for refugees, immigrants, etc. However, compare District 9 to something like Battle: Los Angeles. One's a metaphor, one's a shoot 'em up.
In this case, IM2 is Battle: LA.