Venezualan election 2024

[Agema]

Venezuela election: Maduro declared winner in disputed vote

Election officials say the president has an unassailable lead but the opposition vows to contest the result.

www.bbc.co.uk

The ongoing disturbance in Venezuala continues. Maduro has - very controversially - been declared president by the elections authority there over his closest rival 51% - 44%. This is despite Maduro being behind heavily behind his rival Edmundo Gonzalez in most reliable pre-election opinion polling. The elections authority is staffed by pro-Maduro loyalists. The opposition have claimed that the election was rigged, and key information that would allow verification appear to be absent, leading numerous countries to question whether the election result was genuine.

The opposition, in line with pre-election polling, suggests the margin was around 70-30 against Maduro. As another sign that the election may have been fraudulent, it is notable that anti-Maduro feeling was particularly strong in the run-up to this election compared to previous, and numerous one-time Chavez-supporting strongholds appear to have turned against Maduro.

The wider backdrop is that for around ten years Venezuala has been undergoing an economic and social crisis, and a third of the population (8 million) are estimated to have fled abroad. Although at face value GDP appears reasonable in the last couple of years, mostly from oil revenues, inflation has been rampant, productivity has been shrinking, there are goods shortages, and this has exacerbated severe poverty. Maduro has blamed this on US sanctions (now being eased), although many economists cite government mismanagement as a significant factor. Maduro has also become increasingly authoritarian.

 

[tstorm823]

The wider backdrop is that for around ten years Venezuala has been undergoing an economic and social crisis, and a third of the population (8 million) are estimated to have fled abroad.

The unspoken downside of people fleeing their countries: the vote could have been 80-20 against had people stayed there, though I guess it doesn't matter if the whole thing is stolen anyway.

 

[Seanchaidh]

interesting how much fake news there is surrounding this


edit: Some International election observers wrote a press release: https://nlginternational.org/2024/0...ositions-refusal-to-accept-the-outcome-of-de/

 

[Agema]

The unspoken downside of people fleeing their countries: the vote could have been 80-20 against had people stayed there, though I guess it doesn't matter if the whole thing is stolen anyway.

I would suggest that a third of the population decamping to other countries is a pretty definitive statement on a government's performance.

 

[Hades]

Last time a dictator lost the election but tried to stay on through fraud Putin was more than happy to lend the Russian army to intervene against the population. Unlike Belarus this country doesn't border Russia though. For unfortunate for Maduro.

 

[Eacaraxe]

Ooh is this the thread where we put on our surprised Pikachu faces, pretend the Monroe Doctrine doesn't exist, and act like the US hasn't interfered in Latin-American electoral politics -- oftentimes to the point of staging coups on behalf of private corporations (while the DCI is actually on that corporation's board of directors) -- for over eighty years?

 

[Gergar12]

The problem isn't that Maduro is a leftist, a dictator, or even a nationalizer; it's that he is a poor policymaker. And he did lose the election.

 

[Agema]

The problem isn't that Maduro is a leftist, a dictator, or even a nationalizer; it's that he is a poor policymaker. And he did lose the election.

Yes, I suspect so too. Although the "dictator" element saves him from being voted out for any incompetence.

I would suggest that Venezuala has another major problem in terms of the fact that it has endemic corruption, no matter who is in charge. As a petrostate, there are also the hypothesis of "resource curse", and/or "Dutch disease", which may apply to Venezuala.

 

[meiam]

I guess I'm a bot confused as to why this time is any different, none of the previous election were even remotely close to real, why is this one such a surprise that it was stolen?

 

[Agema]

I guess I'm a bot confused as to why this time is any different, none of the previous election were even remotely close to real, why is this one such a surprise that it was stolen?

To be fair, it's only the previous presidential election (2018) that had serious issues: 2013 and before seem to have been broadly okay.

In 2018 there were huge concerns even in the lead-up. Maduro banned a load of opposition parties, allegations of unfair use of government money and power to benefit Maduro, etc. and the opposition boycotted it. Turnout was therefore very low. Given the opposition boycott, we could credibly accept that under the letter of the law Maduro won, but it was a critically damaged election.

 

[Seanchaidh]

Thread by @AlanRMacLeod on Thread Reader App

@AlanRMacLeod: [Thread] Western media's finest propagandists are pulling out all the stops, trying to delegitimize the elections in Venezuela 🇻🇪. In this thread, I'll dissect their tactics, line by line, using this ...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[Seanchaidh]

Electoral Theater in Venezuela: A Tale from Election Day in Caracas - Venezuelanalysis

TeleSUR journalist Brian Mier offers a chronicle of a voting day in one of Caracas' largest polling centers.

venezuelanalysis.com

 

[Avnger]

Ooh is this the thread where we put on our surprised Pikachu faces, pretend the Monroe Doctrine doesn't exist, and act like the US hasn't interfered in Latin-American electoral politics -- oftentimes to the point of staging coups on behalf of private corporations (while the DCI is actually on that corporation's board of directors) -- for over eighty years?

USA foreign policy bad, yes. With that acknowledged, how does any of this relate to the election under discussion? Do you have evidence of US electoral interference or coup attempt as part of it?

 

[Agema]

USA foreign policy bad, yes. With that acknowledged, how does any of this relate to the election under discussion? Do you have evidence of US electoral interference or coup attempt as part of it?

It's all part of the absurd game to avoid having to face the fact that a one-time hero of the anticapitalist movement turns out to be a guy who sinks his country and makes himself dictator, opposed even by the workers he's supposed to champion.

This occurs quite a lot, unfortunately. However, rather than admit yet another busted flush and apply some useful introspection about why this might be, it's much easier for some leftists to roll out the "evil USA" line.

 

[Seanchaidh]

it's much easier for some leftists to roll out the "evil USA" line.

because it's true

 

[dreng3]

because it's true

I'm probably about as anti-imperialistic as you can get without going full-blown anarchist, but I'd still say that what is going on in Venezuela is a blatant grab for power and completely undemocratic, if the US could, and it very much can, be criticised for undemocratic practices shouldn't we also criticise other countries when they behave in an undemocratic manner? It isn't as if it is hard to note that the US has a ton of bad practices and a very poor track record on democracy and, so called, peace keeping, and then note that what is going on elsewhere is also horrible.

 

[Agema]

if the US could, and it very much can, be criticised for undemocratic practices shouldn't we also criticise other countries when they behave in an undemocratic manner?

And therein lies the problem with a certain segment of the left, because as long as those countries are hostile to US/Western capitalism, their answer to that can be summarised as "No".

 

[Johnny Novgorod]

Apparently no English news site has picked this up yet, but a few hours ago Maduro banned Twitter in Venezuela "for 10 days".

 

[Bedinsis]

Twitter was one of the websites blocked in Egypt during the protests that was subsequently named part of the Arab spring. Hmmmm...

 

[Seanchaidh]

I'm probably about as anti-imperialistic as you can get without going full-blown anarchist, but I'd still say that what is going on in Venezuela is a blatant grab for power and completely undemocratic,

your values have little to do with your beliefs about what is actually happening in a foreign country that has long been a target of US (and 'friends') mass media propaganda except insofar as the propaganda is meant to persuade precisely someone like you who would otherwise object to US meddling in and sabotage of other countries.