US 2024 Presidential Election

[BrawlMan]

Kamala Harris Wipes Out Trump’s Swing-State Lead in Election Dead Heat

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-leads-trump-by-5-points-ipsos-poll-2024-08-08/

New poll shows Harris four points ahead of Trump in three key swing states

Crucial states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan are now leaning Democratic, according to NYT/Siena poll

www.theguardian.com

Kamala Harris breaks record in key swing state, poll shows

A poll released on Friday shows Harris leading former President Donald Trump by nearly 6 points in the state.

www.newsweek.com

 

[Agema]

Y'know what neither did? Steal valor. It matters. EDIT: PS, war journalists have been killed on the job. I don't know he if he never ever went to combat areas. My dad (a veteran) was in admin in Korea. There were times he had to put his life on the line. He tells me other troops in the area hated him until he did so for reasons. And me? I am a military veteran so you can lose the lack of respect BS when writing to me.

At a national level, the supposed US admiration for the military comes across to me as self-delusional bullshit when I see all the crap that goes on.

A country that genuinely respected its veterans wouldn't give so much tolerance for schemes to insult and belittle veterans just because they happen to support the other political side. Inasmuch as respect for military service exists, it appears to come a long, long way below political partisanship in most people's view of what's important.

 

[Eacaraxe]

If its a distraction from policy, then don't do that.

It really isn't a distraction from policy; rather, it cuts to one of the root causes behind faulty, counterproductive, and destructive US policy: that politicians fetishize military service to normalize militarism and empire, and justify American fascism. That's true whether it's Democratic or Republican chickenhawkery, and carefully curating party ranks so that only pro-war former service members rise to the top.

If you're unsure in any way Democrats also do this, or want to say "but this isn't a 'both sides are bad' situation!", I'll point you no further than the post-service record of one Tammy Duckworth. She presents herself as a "national security liberal" who supports veterans and advocates for conscientious military action, and to that end her image is one of the most carefully-tailored by office, party, and press. The reality is her time in the VA was an absolute fucking shitshow, she promptly failed upwards into Congress where there has yet to be an AUMF or defense/"intelligence" appropriations bill come across her desk she didn't rubber stamp, and the last thing her initiatives do is meaningfully help veterans.

If either party actually gave a fuck about current or former service members, the first and second things they'd do would be to not put American service members' lives on the line in stupid fucking imperialist bush wars, and stop supporting military-industrial complex pork and overpriced Pentagon boondoggles that put American service members' lives further at risk once they're deployed to stupid fucking imperialist bush wars. Or to put it another way, instead of asking "how to best support American veterans?" we should all be asking "wait a minute, why are there always so many veterans who need help in the first place?".

We're all aware of this, I'll just be the one to say it out loud.

 

[Silvanus]

It really isn't a distraction from policy; rather, it cuts to one of the root causes behind faulty, counterproductive, and destructive US policy: that politicians fetishize military service to normalize militarism and empire, and justify American fascism. That's true whether it's Democratic or Republican chickenhawkery, and carefully curating party ranks so that only pro-war former service members rise to the top.

The "if" was running with Gorfias' premise. He was happy to lie about someone's service record, then it suddenly became a distraction when the lie fell apart under mild scrutiny.

 

[BrawlMan]

The "if" was running with Gorfias' premise. He was happy to lie about someone's service record, then it suddenly became a distraction when the lie fell apart under mild scrutiny.

Not the first time he's done something like this, get caught, then try to blame victim or blow it off like he did nothing wrong.

 

[Eacaraxe]

Polling links.

I would not put confidence in public opinion polling right now.

The methodological problems that have plagued opinion polling for two decades running is an entire conversation on its own, but the biggest one I'll point out for now is most polling institutions still only break down likelihood of voting into a binary. Institutions need to start using Likert scales to represent voting likelihood, and weighting responses accordingly. Polarization tells the tale; the "swing" in "swing voter" is whether they go to the polls in the first place, not for whom they cast ballots once there.

But by far the biggest issue is where opinion will swing after the market crashes, which is going to happen in September or October. Last week was the "Bear Sterns" moment, and the rally late in the week was a dead cat bounce. The AI bubble is bursting and the yen-carry trade unwind isn't going to stop, and that's a dual simultaneous market shock going into worsening jobs, unemployment, and subsequently LFPR metrics at a time of heavy speculation over when the Fed is going to cut rates, and by how much.

That won't bode well for Harris, given she's the current VP and candidate for the incumbent party which has made the fake economic recovery its second-biggest talking point behind "not Trump". Taking credit for the economy between 2021-2024 will prove a double-edged sword, and she needs to immediately fire any advisor recommending her do anything but distance herself from the Biden admin's economic policy.

 

[gorfias]

Bill Whittle says he will be doing a weekly "How to beat Harris" video.


Tim Pool reports polls show Kamala is winning so far.

 

[BrawlMan]

would not put confidence in public opinion polling right now.

You do that. I don't care. I'm just showing the results as of right now.

Though I am happy she's got more percentage in Michigan than Trump. Like it was last time, except with Biden last election

 

[Phoenixmgs]

So... let me get this straight. You think that if I stayed in my house, I would get covid?

Do you think Covid somehow got wall breaking abilities? Wait, do you think Covid is a tornado or a bushfire?

Covid doesn't spread outside (technically probably like 1 in a million chance perhaps), I don't think there has even been a completely documented transmission of covid outside. What is the point in closing outdoor places? People have to gather and do things together, wouldn't it be better if people did those things outside instead of inside? Also, people have to go to indoor places like the store or work or school, you can't just stay home.

I don't get why you guys are still so delusional over covid when we know facts now (and did back then as well). It's beyond ridiculous that you or anyone is defending closing parks, beaches, etc.

I still think that's a really weird argument

''Yes Trump tried to stay in power after his defeat without electoral or popular mandate LAST time but lets assume he'll play by the rules NEXT time even if he strives to give his cronies powers to throw out election results over the same lies he used as his basis to stay in power last time''

Or ''Yes Trump models himself after authoritarians who keep overturning democracy but lets say the Republicans are the sole exception to that rule even if they're do cartoon villain stuff like striving to deprive workers in Texan summer of water, or children of lunches''

Its beyond ridiculous. Neither Trump nor the Republican party has given any indication they can be trusted with democracy and have in fact expressed deep seated hostility towards it.



Oh that's simple. Conventional political wisdom believes in the incumbent advantage and name recognition. That's it.

You legit think if Trump wins that there won't be an election in 2028?

If you are agreeing that they count as "traitors" despite typically being convicted of "obstructing an official proceeding" I would point out that those charges above that didn't count for Trump included 2 counts of doing that as part of his role in it happening.

"Obstructing an official proceeding" is a very general charge. That doesn't mean you're a traitor.

 

[Hades]

You legit think if Trump wins that there won't be an election in 2028?

No. I think there will be an election where the Republicans stack the deck in their favor. Remodeling districts, getting the courts even further on their side and giving themselves power to throw out results they don't like.

You don't need to formally abolish elections to overturn democracy. Heck, even daddy Putin who all demagogues aspire to be still holds elections. The popular form of authoritarianism these days favors holding elections. Its just elections where the opposition is outlawed from winning from the very start.

 

[Hades]

I wonder if the sentiment that Trump cannot possibly be a threat to democracy, as well as general statements of ''Oh they're still be elections even if Trump wins!'' is the stereotypical American ignorance in regards to other countries. That they're so unaware of anything outside their borders that the only ends of democracy they can imagine are Weimar situations of a far right party formally abolishing democracy, or a military coup where a quirky colonel storms parliament. Both situations being a fairly outdated view of dictatorships.

Putin, Orban, Erdogan and the PIS party of Poland already showed there are more modern and less formal, but no less effective ways of curtailing democracies, but if you only ever pay attention to American politics you might miss this trend having already been introduced decades ago.

 

[Eacaraxe]

You do that. I don't care. I'm just showing the results as of right now.

Though I am happy she's got more percentage in Michigan than Trump. Like it was last time, except with Biden last election

She's not even ahead outside MoE in MI, dude. I'm just saying, if that's your thing it's okay to celebrate Democrats being marginally more energized since Biden stepped down. The geriatric Dixiecrat getting the fuck out is ultimately a good thing. I'm just not celebrating anything yet, and that's not because I don't and would never support Harris simply on the back of her prosecutorial record in California.

This is me stepping back, taking off my partisan hat, and putting on my "political science person" hat. Just so we're clear on this.

There are serious problems with the way US polling agencies conduct, tabulate, and publish polls, against which there is serious pushback to resolve. There's just way too much institutional momentum in favor of the status quo, and it's going to take another 1948-styled clusterfuck to even start addressing it. Then you've got the layer of what will happen with the economy between now and election day, and that more than anything will be what determines this year's election outcome.

Now is not the time to be counting chickens.

 

[BrawlMan]

She's not even ahead outside MoE in MI, dude. I'm just saying, if that's your thing it's okay to celebrate Democrats being marginally more energized since Biden stepped down. The geriatric Dixiecrat getting the fuck out is ultimately a good thing. I'm just not celebrating anything yet, and that's not because I don't and would never support Harris simply on the back of her prosecutorial record in California.

This is me stepping back, taking off my partisan hat, and putting on my "political science person" hat. Just so we're clear on this.

Ok, I get it.

For me, some positive news is better than nothing right now. I've already mentioned that I have my own problems with the Democrats right now, but not enough to discourage me. Maybe a little early to celebrate, but still helps to be informed.

There are serious problems with the way US polling agencies conduct, tabulate, and publish polls, against which there is serious pushback to resolve. There's just way too much institutional momentum in favor of the status quo, and it's going to take another 1948-styled clusterfuck to even start addressing it. Then you've got the layer of what will happen with the economy between now and election day, and that more than anything will be what determines this year's election outcome.

I noticed.

Now is not the time to be counting chickens.

Who said I am counting. All I did was post what was already out there, and that's it. This is the us presidential election thread after all.

 

[Thaluikhain]

I wonder if the sentiment that Trump cannot possibly be a threat to democracy, as well as general statements of ''Oh they're still be elections even if Trump wins!'' is the stereotypical American ignorance in regards to other countries. That they're so unaware of anything outside their borders that the only ends of democracy they can imagine are Weimar situations of a far right party formally abolishing democracy, or a military coup where a quirky colonel storms parliament. Both situations being a fairly outdated view of dictatorships.

Putin, Orban, Erdogan and the PIS party of Poland already showed there are more modern and less formal, but no less effective ways of curtailing democracies, but if you only ever pay attention to American politics you might miss this trend having already been introduced decades ago.

In part, probably, but I also think that there's a good deal of head in the sand "it can't happen here" mentality.

 

[BrawlMan]

I wonder if the sentiment that Trump cannot possibly be a threat to democracy, as well as general statements of ''Oh they're still be elections even if Trump wins!'' is the stereotypical American ignorance in regards to other countries. That they're so unaware of anything outside their borders that the only ends of democracy they can imagine are Weimar situations of a far right party formally abolishing democracy, or a military coup where a quirky colonel storms parliament. Both situations being a fairly outdated view of dictatorships.

Bitches and assholes who claim "there will still be elections" are so full of it, and most of them are aware of it, but don't want to admit it. These are the same assholes that say "Trump will get rid of the Mexicans! He didn't cause the Jan. 6 riots/insurrection/attempted coup!". All in the same breath when he didn't come to save none of his pawns.

In part, probably, but I also think that there's a good deal of head in the sand "it can't happen here" mentality.

That too.

 

[Phoenixmgs]

No. I think there will be an election where the Republicans stack the deck in their favor. Remodeling districts, getting the courts even further on their side and giving themselves power to throw out results they don't like.

You don't need to formally abolish elections to overturn democracy. Heck, even daddy Putin who all demagogues aspire to be still holds elections. The popular form of authoritarianism these days favors holding elections. Its just elections where the opposition is outlawed from winning from the very start.

Dude, you're really down that rabbit hole. Framing every election as some existential threat is part of the strategy to keep the same people in power. You think the people actually spending all the money on elections even care if the democrat or republican win? They are more than happy if either win. Whatever you fear has already happened, why do you think JFK Jr, Chase Oliver, Jill Stein, Cornel West, etc aren't allowed to debate with Biden/Harris and Trump? If this very much preselected group by the wealthy is a just decent example of democracy, then what are you even worried about (it'll be the same anyway)?

You actually think voting Harris and her winning is some major branching point in America's history? You're believing essentially video game hype like how Cyberpunk was marketed as having choices that matter. It's not real, it's a marketing ploy.

 

[Hades]

Dude, you're really down that rabbit hole.

I still have to hear an argument as to why Republicans following the exact same playbook at Putin or Orban would magically lead to a different outcome. What have the the Republicans done to deserve such trust? I prefer to call it pattern recognition, but when reading the rest of your post the whole rabbit hole accusation becomes really funny.

 

[Eacaraxe]

For me, some positive news is better than nothing right now. I've already mentioned that I have my own problems with the Democrats right now, but not enough to discourage me. Maybe a little early to celebrate, but still helps to be informed.

I get it. And this is me putting my partisan hat back on, but to me Harris and the Democrats aren't it.

I've been clear about my personal history with the party in this thread. Atop that, you have the fact this is the party which decided the necessary and appropriate response to the definitive civil rights issue of our time was to stage a ridiculous photo op kneeling in kente cloth for nine minutes, while simultaneously (violently) pushing back against every individual policy proposal put forth by BLM activists...and if that wasn't enough, increasing cop funding and expanding police powers especially after January 6th. That was a Sister Souljah moment of a scale heretofore unimaginable in American electoral politics, and to me personally so far beyond the red line I can no longer justify to myself even the pretense of Democratic support.

The party is the rote definition of the white moderate. I just don't have the energy in me any more to pretend otherwise.

Until these Dixiecrats are rode out on a rail back to the Republican party where they belong, there's not a Democrat on the face of the planet who'll get my vote as in my experience they're all complicit in a corrupt party system for personal gain. It's beyond clear to me at this point participation does nothing more than legitimize it, and I can no longer stomach it. To me the only solution is just to walk away, leave the Democratic party to its fate, and engage in direction action while supporting third-party challenges from the left until the party comes to its senses -- if it ever will at this point, and given what I know of the party I doubt they ever will. They got theirs, and fuck the rest of us.

If people want to call that purity testing and absolutism, I'll gladly own that label -- and wonder how and why others in the year 2024 after the shit we've seen don't. If they're not substantially pushing policy proposals meaningfully distinct from Trump's, and following through on those proposals, there's no purpose to wasting my time voting for them. The Biden administration was a masterclass in bad faith (as I said it would be in 2020), given how many of Trump's most egregious policies weren't just continued, but instead doubled down upon while pressing to manufacture consent for them among the very people who profess opposition.

In part, probably, but I also think that there's a good deal of head in the sand "it can't happen here" mentality.

This is no perfect time to point out the why and how of my position. Between Democrats and Republicans, there's one of them which has made significant headway towards actually achieving this goal by way of eliminating the primary system, and it ain't the Republicans.

At least the Republicans had fucking primaries (for all it mattered) this year.

 

[Schadrach]

ProPublica has posted some leaked training videos from Project 2025 which are intended to train the next conservative administration's political appointees “to be ready on day one.”

 

[BrawlMan]

I get it. And this is me putting my partisan hat back on, but to me Harris and the Democrats aren't it.

I've heard it already. You're saying nothing new at this point for me, so I am ending the conversation and not reading all of that.