Conflict between Palestine and Israel escalates
- Thread starter dreng3
- Start date
Carrier groups tend to be a bit bigger, but some cursory wiki-ing (yeah, I know), says not by much.
We're going to be fine. People of countries that share a border with Israel, not so much.
No-one can seriously threaten Israel, realistically. If they can't even make a dent in Israel, those of us in the USA and Europe are definitely safe.
Unless you signed up for the armed forces once it looked like the GWOT was over. Might get sent to another Middle Eastern conflict.
The underlying issue in a WW3 scenario is what will the U.S. do when it doesn’t have any allies left. Because with our current stance that’s where we’re headed.
We are probably going to be fine but I do not think that is an absolute at all anymore (well it wasn't an absolute ever I suppose given lots of stuff could kill us all but this time about the Middle East specifically).
All it'll take at this point is a major player going "OK Israel, that is enough you fucking psychopaths" and then The US will have to decide if Israel is truly worth dying for and unfortunately, I think Biden/Harris/Trump/90% of politicians will go "Yes they are".
I don't think it's a very high chance but I'm no longer willing to say that there is no chance
That'd require a major player decided "Ok US, that is enough" as well, though. Nobody really seems to be game. Countries won't even stop supporting Israel for fear of annoying the US.
Nobody is going to go all out on Israel anyway, as they have nuclear weapons of their own.
Realistically, there are no major players. As far as the major powers go, Russia, China and India couldn't care less and the EU isn't going to start a war.
There are probably three, maybe four countries regionally that could seriously threaten Israel: the main three being Egypt, Turkey and Iran. The latter two don't have a border and can't get an army there. Iran has just showed us what it can do to Israel without ground forces: very little. It would be very unpleasantly complex for Turkey to attack Israel given all its other ties. That leaves Egypt, which is just about the only one Israel takes any effort to be reasonable with, and the USA also buys Egypt off on Israel's behalf for good measure.
This is all part of Israel's planning: it has no opposition and no major threats, so it does what it likes. The only country that can rein in it is the USA, and the USA refuses, because it's a domestic vote loser. There's something to be said for fear of mass casualties to encourage detente, and Israel's aggression tells us all we need to know about how concerned it is of substantial damage in return.
Honestly though, Biden: what a useless sack of shit. He's been desperate to not upset the pro-Israel vote in the USA, but in the process he's let Israel diplomatically humiliate his administration, causing human rights abuses and spreading chaos in a manner that make him look pathetic. The only redeeming thing for him is that Trump would probably have been enthusiastically cheerleading every bomb dropped on Arabic civilians.
US would not support Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, says Biden
Top Israeli diplomat at UN warns his country’s retaliation for Iranian missile attack will be heavier than Tehran ‘could ever have imagined’
www.theguardian.com
You can kill the religious fruitcakes AFTER THE ELECTIONS!!!
Lebanon's military returned fire on the IDF for the first time today, after the IDF attacked one of their emplacements.
Thus far, Lebanon's military has stood aside and allowed the ground invasion, stressing that they're not associated with the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel. Today's exchange was very limited and isn't expected to lead to wider fighting against Lebanon's military.
It does bear the question, though. What is the purpose of a defence force, if not to prevent the invasion of the country or protect the civilian population from an external threat? I can't imagine this is going to engender much trust in the government.
Thus far, Lebanon's military has stood aside and allowed the ground invasion, stressing that they're not associated with the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel. Today's exchange was very limited and isn't expected to lead to wider fighting against Lebanon's military.
It does bear the question, though. What is the purpose of a defence force, if not to prevent the invasion of the country or protect the civilian population from an external threat? I can't imagine this is going to engender much trust in the government.
Do you want to be the military that fights this military? They are hoping the Americans pressure Israel enough to get them to back off.
Six-Day War - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Yom Kippur War - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
1982 Lebanon War - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
1948 Arab–Israeli War - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
Suez Crisis - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
1982.Do you want to be the military that fights this military? They are hoping the Americans pressure Israel enough to get them to back off.
Six-Day War - Wikipedia
Yom Kippur War - Wikipedia
1982 Lebanon War - Wikipedia
1948 Arab–Israeli War - Wikipedia
Suez Crisis - Wikipedia
But what else are you supposed to do when diretly attacked anyway ?
It is not like "Not fighting Israel" keeps you safe. Or your citizens. You get bombed either way.
Lebanon is in a bind, though. It has no meaningful ability to effectively resist Israel militarily: to proactively resist would be to guarantee defeat and heavy casualties, severely weaken the government, as well as giving Israel an excuse to smash far more of Lebanon into rubble. Plus, of course, because Hezbollah effectively operates as an independent state within Lebanon, I imagine the Lebanese government - and major factions within Lebanon - can see a positive if Israel smashes it.
BUt Israel is not just attacking Hisbollah. They attacked a Lebanese army camp and are recklessly bombing the capital.
It might undermine the government as well if only the Hisbollah fights back and acts as a Lebanese army.
I certainly understand the rationale. They wouldn't succeed, though you could argue the more active resistance, the greater the cost to an aggressor, and so the greater the deterrence element even if they'd ultimately be unsuccessful.
But I do think it raises a question about the army's purpose. What are the government (and by extension the Lebanese people) paying $250m a year for, if they don't do their actual job due to the high probability of failure?
I suppose they have been involved in other conflicts as part of broader coalitions, including against Daesh.
"Accidents happen". It can be brushed off as an error. Presumably a Lebanese officer notifies his superiors, who call Israel and says "WTF?", Israel tells its commanders on the field to get their shit together and check their targets better.
I think we all - including the Lebanese government - know that's not going to wash with Israel under its current leadership. They are without restraint. Particularly as I doubt the Lebanese army have been so well trained and prepared for guerrilla warfare as Hezbollah, so they might be even easier to defeat by a conventional military.
I suspect a major thing the Lebanese government is concerned about is that it still has an army to help control the country after Israel's finished smashing stuff up, plus that it doesn't have to spend a ton of additional money (that it doesn't have) rebuilding one.