US 2024 Presidential Election

Trunkage

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"Prisoners doing work" is a perfectly acceptable summary of what slavery is.
Ah... I would say that if they were paid well, then it wouldn't be classed as slavery. 50c or $2 dollars is not paid well.

The counter to my argument is if they can access their money from prison
 

Kwak

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All Trump voters are regressive neanderthals.


“To expedite the removals of Tren de Aragua and other savage gangs like MS-13,” Trump said on Monday. “I will invoke the Alien Enemies act of 18—, no 1798. That’s when we had real politicians that said, ‘We’re not gonna play games.’ We need to go back to 1798.”



Despite Trump’s claim, the Alien Enemies Act — and three other pieces of legislation comprising the Alien and Sedition Acts of 1798 — were not universally beloved upon their passage. The Republican Party at the time opposed the laws as a gross violation of civil and due process rights. President Thomas Jefferson called the acts a “detestable” piece of legislation “worthy of the 8th or 9th Century.” Large portions of the law were allowed to lapse, but the Alien Enemies Act remains active, as it had not included an expiration when passed.



In 1798, the enslavement of Black people was still the law of the land, and women could not own property, vote, control their own reproductive choices, or participate in wide swaths of society under the protection of the law. Nevertheless, Trump and the Republican Party regularly fantasize about a return to the times of codified legal repression.
 
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Seanchaidh

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Uhrm, no lol-- it's mathematically impossible for Red's and Blue's proportions to both rise from the act of voting Green.
Not when your assumption of "likelihood to vote red/blue" is an unknown or undefined variable. Then they can both rise and fall simultaneously (depending on the different starting assumptions) because your answer is a distribution that follows from stuff you don't know-- which is to say, variables with a range of possible values. That likelihood, given that someone is voting Green, is not knowable; it's counterfactual. It's not a good idea to try to model it because you can twist it both directions in the way I suggested and come up with any answer you want. Which is perhaps why the idea is so tempting to someone who likes the idea of tactically voting in favor of genocide.

In reality, neither Harris nor Trump are advantaged by a vote for a third party. And neither are entitled to the assumption that they will receive a vote but for a third party candidate.

If one rises, the other lowers proportionately.
Which is accomplished in an actually reasonable model of thinking about this by voting for one of them or the other, not anyone else.

If it makes Trump more likely to win, it is indirectly supporting Trump. Not as much supporting Trump as directly voting for Trump would be, but still very far from opposing Trump.

It is basically saying "I am not really against all the Republican/Trump policies, they are tolerable".
That would also mean "I am not really against all the Democrat/Harris policies, they are tolerable". But then "I am really against at least some of the Democrat/Harris policies, they are intolerable" is why someone would decline to vote for Harris. This is a contradiction, so there's an error in your thought there.

A Green vote does not make Trump more or less likely to win unless he's in danger of losing to the Green Party candidate.

Of course that really is only true for people more left aligned. For right wingers, refusing to vote or going third candidate instead of Trump would likewise indirectly support Harris.
(Same going the other way, of course)
 

BrawlMan

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You fools! Trump was and is still willing to throw any non-white race or white people under the bus. He did it to you before during his time as president, and during fucking covid! What makes you think he'll treat you nicely, fairly, or with the fucking kid gloves?!

America is full of contradictions. This is the story of one of them: the Arab-Americans who will vote for Donald Trump.


He's the man who says immigrants are "poisoning the blood of the country", who calls them "terrorists", and who wants a "Muslim ban".

And yet, in a journey through Michigan, I've found they are swinging to him.

It's not just a story about the war in the Middle East. It goes beyond the desire to punish Biden and now Harris. It is about much more than the war.

In places like Dearborn or Hamtramck, it doesn't take long to discover that a dynamic shift in views is taking place and that - as is so often the case - is about a perceived sense of abandonment but here with a particular twist.

My journey began at a local high school. Picture the place you'd imagine in the movies and that's it.

Red brick outside, rows of lockers inside. The yellow buses, the Stars and Stripes and the pledge of allegiance.

It is the perfect reflection of America but with a diversity that defies the stereotypes, and views that may do too.

Folllow latest US election updates

The Frontier International Academy is in the heart of Hamtramck, the only Muslim-majority city in America and the students reflect the demographic.

In between the "recess" game of American Football, the first-time voters and second-generation immigrants talk politics.

"We don't know what she is going to provide, we don't know what she is going to do. So I think it's just a safer bet to go for Donald Trump," 18-year-old Jubran Ali tells me.

"I'm actually asking people around me to see what they're voting, and most people are voting for Donald Trump," Edris Alhady, also 18, says.

Michigan is one of the seven swing states in this country where the White House will be won or lost.

Shifts to the left or the right among small margins of voters will determine which way the country goes.


In 2016, Trump was the first Republican to win Michigan since 1988. He beat Hillary Clinton by fewer than 11,000 votes.

Four years later, in 2020, Joe Biden won the state by only 154,188 votes out of more than 5.5 million cast - a 2.8% margin of victory.

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Michigan has the highest number of Arab-Americans in America. They represent a key voting bloc - one which the Democratic Party may have taken for granted.

Amer Ghalib is a member of the Democratic Party and his office is a reflection of his political roots - a photo of him with President Joe Biden.

But something profound has happened since that snap was taken.

On Friday Mayor Ghalib welcomed Donald Trump to the city - a visit which came weeks after he endorsed the former president.


"Why Trump?" I asked.

"Well... it's a combination of two things. Disappointment and hope. Disappointment that the current administration and how they are handling things locally or internationally, and hope that the new administration, led by Trump, will do something different."

Our conversation was revealing in many ways. I'd come to this city expecting to hear anger about American policy in the Middle East. After all, the people here have deep existing ties to the region.

But only now was it obvious that the Arab-American shift right is also a consequence of the gradual leftward drift by the Democrats.

It's about the real war in the Middle East, but it's about culture wars too.


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Last year an attempt to fly a pride flag on city property was blocked by the mayor and his team.

"There is so much aggression and attempts to enforce certain values on the majority of this community," Mayor Ghalib said, "...on schools, on public properties, city hall and the Democratic Party is not doing anything to prevent that shift in dynamics."

I asked if anyone from Kamala Harris's team had been in touch about his concerns before or since his endorsement of Trump."No. No," he said.

"Does that surprise you?"

"They think I'm a fake Democrat. All my life here I voted Democrat."

Trump's visit to the city is the culmination of groundwork by members of Team Trump for months, an indication of how important they see this state and this demographic.

So what about Trump's pro-Israel stance? As he arrived in Detroit last week he praised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

"Well, I don't think there's anything worse than what's happening now," the mayor said.

It's a sentiment echoed here. The idea that no one can be worse than the Democrats on Israel-Gaza, and that domestically - on social issues and the economy - Trump would be better for this community.

Drive west out of Hamtramck through the Detroit suburbs and you reach Dearborn.

About half the population here is Arab-American, most from Lebanon. Over coffee with local environmental activist Samraa Luqman, a conversation that should alarm the Harris campaign.


She tells me that she voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, she wrote Bernie Sanders's name onto the ballot in 2020. And this year?

"I'm voting for Trump," Samraa says. "Why?" I ask.

"The genocide. Policy-wise, I don't like any of the Republican policies, to be frank, at all... I will still vote for him because one thing I hate more than all those other policies is genocide… And that's the sentiment of an entire community."

I asked what made her think Trump would be any better for the Arab cause.


"Trump is a wild card... will he do exactly what Kamala does or worse or better? But I know for sure what the Democrats are doing and they're intending to continue it."

This journey through communities that feel now forgotten and unheard ends for me where it started for them - at Detroit's old Ford factory which drew so many Middle Eastern immigrants here generations ago.

There I met the local Yemeni-American Democratic Party caucus leader with a startling conclusion.

"I think the damage is great. I assure you that it's not just about Michigan. This is a nationwide phenomena," he said.

"I am very worried," Abdulhakim Alsadeh said.


I ask him if he thinks the Democratic Party has messed up this campaign.

"Yes, I believe so. I really do," he said. "The Republican nominee, former president Donald Trump, reached out to the Yemeni-American community. They sat with him. They talked with him."


"Everybody is concerned," he said.

It won't take many to swing this state and streamline the path to the White House.

Here, through all the contradictions, many are swinging to Trump.
He didn't do anything to help with Palestine or Israel either during his 4 year term. Do you fuckers have that much of a short term memory lost? Things aren't going to get better with him.


Some better news.

In 1798, the enslavement of Black people was still the law of the land, and women could not own property, vote, control their own reproductive choices, or participate in wide swaths of society under the protection of the law. Nevertheless, Trump and the Republican Party regularly fantasize about a return to the times of codified legal repression.
Because they are weak ass bitches who can't nor won't actually deal with people different from them at all.
 

The Rogue Wolf

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In 1798, the enslavement of Black people was still the law of the land, and women could not own property, vote, control their own reproductive choices, or participate in wide swaths of society under the protection of the law. Nevertheless, Trump and the Republican Party regularly fantasize about a return to the times of codified legal repression.
They keep throwing out random dates because they're not yet ready to say it plainly: A return to when White Christian Men Ruled the World.
 
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Thaluikhain

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He didn't do anything to help with Palestine or Israel either during his 4 year term. Do you fuckers have that much of a short term memory lost? Things aren't going to get better with him.
Eh, I'd not be totally shocked if he randomly decried that no more aid was to be sent to Israel. But, more likely he'll be at least as bad, of course.
 

Silvanus

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Not when your assumption of "likelihood to vote red/blue" is an unknown or undefined variable. Then they can both rise and fall simultaneously (depending on the different starting assumptions) because your answer is a distribution that follows from stuff you don't know-- which is to say, variables with a range of possible values. That likelihood, given that someone is voting Green, is not knowable; it's counterfactual.
If you reread the post, you'll see I've addressed how likelihood is accounted for: I've assumed the voter is likelier to vote Green than Blue, and likelier to vote Blue than Red. That's the only necessary extrapolation, and I'd say also perfectly accurate, though Tippy is welcome to correct me if he's just as likely to vote for Trump.

In reality, neither Harris nor Trump are advantaged by a vote for a third party.
Well, one of them mathematically is, unless the voter is exactly as likely to otherwise vote for either of the primary candidates.

And neither are entitled to the assumption that they will receive a vote but for a third party candidate.
Agreed!

Which is accomplished in an actually reasonable model of thinking about this by voting for one of them or the other, not anyone else.
It is accomplished by any model in which two parties are more competitive than others.

You can say you're fine with it, you can say it's worth it. You cannot say your vote does not affect the chances of the two frontrunners in different ways, unless you also say you are equally likely to vote for either, Red or Blue bucket.
 
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tippy2k2

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Not when your assumption of "likelihood to vote red/blue" is an unknown or undefined variable. Then they can both rise and fall simultaneously (depending on the different starting assumptions) because your answer is a distribution that follows from stuff you don't know-- which is to say, variables with a range of possible values. That likelihood, given that someone is voting Green, is not knowable; it's counterfactual. It's not a good idea to try to model it because you can twist it both directions in the way I suggested and come up with any answer you want. Which is perhaps why the idea is so tempting to someone who likes the idea of tactically voting in favor of genocide.
Maybe this is the part where the disconnect still is (somehow)

Let's say they took away my Green Bucket. The ONLY two buckets I am now able to pour my water into is The Blue Bucket or The Red Bucket. Do you know where my water would go?

On the fucking floor

When I say that Genocide is my Red Line, I don't mean it the way Biden means it when he says Rafah was his Red Line where he does jack shit when Israel gleefully dances all over it. My Red Line is a DO NOT PASS GO DO NOT COLLECT $200 kind of line.

If my literal only options were Harris or Trump, I'd just not vote because neither of them are on the correct side of my Red Line.
 

Silvanus

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Maybe this is the part where the disconnect still is (somehow)

Let's say they took away my Green Bucket. The ONLY two buckets I am now able to pour my water into is The Blue Bucket or The Red Bucket. Do you know where my water would go?

On the fucking floor

When I say that Genocide is my Red Line, I don't mean it the way Biden means it when he says Rafah was his Red Line where he does jack shit when Israel gleefully dances all over it. My Red Line is a DO NOT PASS GO DO NOT COLLECT $200 kind of line.

If my literal only options were Harris or Trump, I'd just not vote because neither of them are on the correct side of my Red Line.
As I said, if your likelihood of voting Blue or Red was exactly identical, then voting Green would not increase or decrease either one's chances. My model assumed that the likelihoods were different but i left open the possibility for correction. So if you genuinely view Harris and Trump exactly identically, then it's a different situation.

Ditto, an observer who genuinely sees no difference between the trolley track with 100 people tied to it, and the other track with 5 people. Their absolute non-negotiable "red line" is murder so they refuse to touch the switch. If that person's equivalence between the two options was genuine, then their inaction did not increase the risk of 100 people dying.
 

Phoenixmgs

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Well, I'll answer that question with a question: Britain has no written constitution, what do you think stops legislators reversing slavery?
We are not talking about legislators, we are talking about the Supreme Court.

"Prisoners doing work" is a perfectly acceptable summary of what slavery is.
In quotations, sure, but it's not actually in quotations.

The ONLY medical procedure that isn't covered by privacy is abortion. It needs to be restored
That isn't true. Hence why some professional athletes have to go to other countries to get "experimental" treatments. And experimental is in quotes because some of the treatments are experimental and some you can say is just the US being late to approve them. Christian McCaffrey is probably the most recent example of this.

Also, if you could literally get anything you wanted, why didn't people just get the covid vaccine before it was approved? If the patient and doctor are fine with the treatment, then why weren't people getting the covid vaccine if they so wanted (before approval)?
 
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tippy2k2

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As I said, if your likelihood of voting Blue or Red was exactly identical, then voting Green would not increase or decrease either one's chances. My model assumed that the likelihoods were different but i left open the possibility for correction. So if you genuinely view Harris and Trump exactly identically, then it's a different situation.

Ditto, an observer who genuinely sees no difference between the trolley track with 100 people tied to it, and the other track with 5 people. Their absolute non-negotiable "red line" is murder so they refuse to touch the switch. If that person's equivalence between the two options was genuine, then their inaction did not increase the risk of 100 people dying.
I'm choosing the track with 0 people tied to it. Democrats are the one who are choosing the track with 5 people tied to it. If everyone who claims they were sick of the two party system in this country actually voted that way, we'd have (AT LEAST) three parties in this country. But people are so terrified that The Red Team will win that they're willing to throw people in front of the trolley in order to make sure that they get to stay safe.

(This is also assuming that those people are not also tied on the track, just farther down the line where you can't see them because I guaranFUCKINGtee that if The Democrats would score more points throwing LGBT or Immigrants (oh wait...TOUGHER THAN TRUMP ON THE BORDER LOL) or any other minority group onto the track, they'd do it in a heartbeat).
 
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Silvanus

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I'm choosing the track with 0 people tied to it.
You can do that, no worries! That track isn't connected to the trolley's route, of course, but you can choose it by issuing a prayer to the mountain spirits that they lift the train from its course, if you refuse to touch the switch that controls the tracks it's actually on.

Democrats are the one who are choosing the track with 5 people tied to it. If everyone who claims they were sick of the two party system in this country actually voted that way, we'd have (AT LEAST) three parties in this country. But people are so terrified that The Red Team will win that they're willing to throw people in front of the trolley in order to make sure that they get to stay safe.
You're not choosing either track, I know. You're choosing to issue a prayer that the train miraculously flies to the other unconnected track instead. So the 5 and 100 remain with equal likelihood, because choosing either of those murderous options would be wrong.
 
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Seanchaidh

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Well, one of them mathematically is, unless the voter is exactly as likely to otherwise vote for either of the primary candidates.
No. It's the same as doing nothing or not even existing.

Instead of voting for Trump, I'm voting Green. Oh, wow, that means +1 Harris!
Instead of voting for Harris, I'm voting Green. Oh. That also means -1 Harris. It is precisely the same action described-- doing one implies doing the other-- and it sums to nothing (at least in respect to Trump vs. Harris).

If I'm choosing to vote Green (in the Presidential election), the likelihood that I'm voting for Trump or Harris is zero. It's not a random event, there is no set of coins being flipped or dice being rolled here. Representing it as a probability is asinine.
 
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tippy2k2

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You can do that, no worries! That track isn't connected to the trolley's route. You can choose it by issuing a prayer to the mountain spirits that they lift the train from its course, if you refuse to touch the switch that controls the tracks it's actually on.



You're not choosing either track, I know. You're choosing to issue a prayer that the train miraculously flies to the other unconnected track instead. So the 5 and 100 remain with equal likelihood, because choosing either of those murderous options would be wrong.
If everyone who claims they were sick of the two party system in this country actually voted that way, we'd have (AT LEAST) three parties in this country.
My track absolutely does exist. Just everyone wants to pretend like that track can't ever win because no one ever votes for that track so they don't vote for that track so that track never wins. It's one giant self fulfilling prophecy. Everybody says they're sick of The Duopoly but then continues to vote for it because Third Party "can't win" but if everyone who claimed they were sick of The Duopoly actually voted against it, we'd likely have 4+ parties as Leftists would break from Democrats and MAGA would break from RINOs or whatever they call normal Republicans nowadays.

But instead people keep voting for The Duopoly and then sit back scratching their heads wondering why nothing ever changes...
 

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Representing it as a probability is asinine.
Unfortunately, probabilities are a part of how the world functions, unless you're a Laplace-esque determinist. Inaction carries culpability, right alongside action-- else a bystander chomping popcorn as they watch an injured man bleed out carries no guilt.

My track absolutely does exist.
That's a fairly un-fanciful prayer to the mountain spirits, but one nonetheless.

Unless you're going to tell me a Stein victory has equal or comparable likelihood to a Harris or Trump one? That achievability would change the whole equation, and i'd join you in your vote! So tell me genuinely: is it?
 
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BrawlMan

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Thank you Detroit News for staying on it. I.
Make it to a point, turn up all the most political ADS to put on the Ad Blocker when I'm on YouTube because even the ones that are factual. I get sick and tired of looking at every 30 to 40 seconds they come up.

 

tippy2k2

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Unfortunately, probabilities are a part of how the world functions, unless you're a Laplace-esque determinist. Inaction carries culpability, right alongside action.



That's a fairly un-fanciful prayer to the mountain spirits, but one nonetheless.

Unless you're going to tell me a Stein victory has equal or comparable likelihood to a Harris or Trump one? That achievability would change the whole equation. So tell me genuinely: is it?
It is almost a zero percent chance that Stein will win the presidency (although there is a very real chance they could finally hit the 5% mark for the Federal Funding thingy, which that alone makes it worth shooting my shot on as both parties are doing their very best to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory).

Which still has nothing to do with my stance about voting for Harris so I have no idea why you keep harping on about voting for Harris at me when I talk about voting for Jill Stein. Harris has crossed my Red Line. She can either get on the right side of it and then I'll vote for her or she can stay on the wrong side of it and not get my vote. If you magically removed everyone off the ballot and I was told my vote would have to go to Harris or to Trump, I would just stay home because neither of them are against sending a FUCK TON of my tax dollars to fund a Genocide.

As I've stated far too many times in this thread to count because for some reason it keeps coming up, voting for Harris means you can look past genocide to vote for her. I am unwilling to do that. It's up to you and other voters to decide if genocide is a deal breaker for them or not. If it is not, feel free to vote Harris. You can pretty up your reasons all you want with LESSER EVIL or Trolley Problem or whatever else you want to do for mental gymnastics to justify it but ultimately, a vote for Harris doesn't make you Pro-Genocide but a vote for Harris shows that Genocide is not a deal breaker for you and I'm getting real sick of having to repeat myself on this.
 

crimson5pheonix

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If it makes Trump more likely to win, it is indirectly supporting Trump. Not as much supporting Trump as directly voting for Trump would be, but still very far from opposing Trump.

It is basically saying "I am not really against all the Republican/Trump policies, they are tolerable".

Of course that really is only true for people more left aligned. For right wingers, refusing to vote or going third candidate instead of Trump would likewise indirectly support Harris.
But yet it is somehow gauche to point out that Harris supporters are supporting genocide since this is the logic applied. Nobody likes being told they're voting for genocide when they condescend to third party voters, for some reason.
 
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