Syrian Civil War

[Silvanus]

As people are probably already aware, there have been lightning-fast developments in the Syrian Civil War (which has been ongoing since 2011 or 2012).

The HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), formerly an al-Qaeda affiliate, has managed to take Aleppo and Hama in a matter of days, and is close to encircling Homs and Damascus. The Assad government army has just withdrawn from Homs. It looks quite likely they could take the capital and become the largest force in the country's West.

Much of the rest of the country is still split between regional ruling factions-- the autonomous Rojava in the north-East; the Turkish allies in a strip of the North; the Syrian Free Army (whom the US supports) in a large chunk of the South; and Druze tribes in the south-West.

Internationally, the largest foreign involvement is from Turkey, Iran and Russia. Iran and Russia both condemn the HTS as terrorists and materially support the Assad government. Turkey has backed the rebels.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/07/assad-syria-turkey-iran-russia-diplomats-regime

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/syrian-rebels-seize-fourth-city-close-homs-threat-assads-rule-2024-12-07/

Also: in captured cities so far, HTS has been opening the prisons. This has meant the release of thousands of political prisoners-- account here of an 18 year old Uni student arrested for "agitation" 39 years ago, now potentially coming home at age 57.

‘He has come out an old man’: joy and grief as loved ones released from Assad prisons

Family members describe renewed hopes after decades-long searches for political detainees in ‘Kingdom of Silence’

www.theguardian.com

 

[Hades]

Well that just collapsed like a house of cards didn't it. Hey vlad! Maybe next time don't remove troops you can't afford to remove!

For the people of Syria this likely isn't really a win. Just the replacement of one tyrant with another, and the new one being Islamist terrorist to boot. Less ''liberation'' and more ''under new management''. There's not much reason to be optimistic about this for Syria.

On the bright side Putin has a lot of egg on his face. He lost a vassal state due to withdrawing Russian troops he couldn't afford to in order to support his disaster invasion of Ukraine. Now Russia lost a vassal country and naval base due to it which might weaken his regime at least somewhat.

 

[Thaluikhain]

Well that just collapsed like a house of cards didn't it. Hey vlad! Maybe next time don't remove troops you can't afford to remove!

I think he feels he can afford to lose in Syria more than he can in Ukraine. But yeah, don't start a war until you've finished your current one. See also going for Iraq while Afghanistan was going on, or even going for the Allies while you're bogged down in China.

 

[Hades]

I think he feels he can afford to lose in Syria more than he can in Ukraine. But yeah, don't start a war until you've finished your current one. See also going for Iraq while Afghanistan was going on, or even going for the Allies while you're bogged down in China.

He might be wrong on that one. Russia's intervention in Syria was the much hyped return of Russia as a ''great power'' so its a very symbolic defeat to lose is. And despite Russia having the upper hand in Ukraine it hasn't gained enough to compensate the loss.

 

[PsychedelicDiamond]

Would be nice if it meant that in the near future a return of the Syrian refugees will be possible. Germany took quite a lot of them starting back in the mid 10's and I think back then no one would have ever thought that it would still be a burden we have to shoulder nearly 10 years later. It would be nice if those people would be able to return home safely and we can finally lay the refugee crisis to rest.

And if course I hope it means Russia will be weakened and it'll stifle their imperialist ambitions in Europe.

Both are very optimistic, I suppose, but it would be the best possible outcome.

 

[Agema]

Would be nice if it meant that in the near future a return of the Syrian refugees will be possible. Germany took quite a lot of them starting back in the mid 10's and I think back then no one would have ever thought that it would still be a burden we have to shoulder nearly 10 years later. It would be nice if those people would be able to return home safely and we can finally lay the refugee crisis to rest.

Don't count on it.

Firstly, they've made new homes, and probably largely acclimatised: many will probably not want to return. And that's even before we consider that Syria is a decade-long war zone, probably with years of heavily factionalised instability ahead of it anyway, and the current new top dogs don't exactly seem like the most cuddly, caring, sharing, tolerant bunch. I suspect most Syrian refugees would at best be taking a "wait and see" approach for years yet.

It's not necessarily good for Germany for them to leave either: plenty of those immigrants are now integrated into the German workforce, and given declining German birth rates they provide a handy extra boost of working age labour. Although their employment rates are well below German norms, that disparity is only likely to decrease over time.

 

[Hades]

t's not necessarily good for Germany for them to leave either: plenty of those immigrants are now integrated into the German workforce, and given declining German birth rates they provide a handy extra boost of working age labour. Although their employment rates are well below German norms, that disparity is only likely to decrease over time.

Yeah but they are brown! Can't have that in our Deutsland! And as foolish as that sounds the AFD will likely increase its power with nearly those exact words. For decades argument about labour and birth rates have been very ineffective.

 

[XsjadoBlayde]

There will always be a "refugee crisis" not only cos they remain the most effective political scapegoat for the kind of politicians and their media empires who know they gonna need voiceless scapegoats, but also cos global warming ain't stopping, ain't slowing down and sure as shit ain't causing any of the huge international corporate polluters to care more about self preservation than the ongoing limitless money/resource hoarding. Including and especially the largest contributor, the Western military industrial (war) complex They'll be weaving quite intricately amongst each other as latter grows ever more difficult to ignore.

 

[dreng3]

Well, at least someone is coming out ahead in all of this, now to gamble on whether or not the land will ever be returned to Syria, I'm putting my money on no, any takers? .

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/08/middleeast/israel-syria-security-implications-golan-intl/index.html

TL: DR
Netanyahu has ordered the IDF to take Syrian land as a "buffer zone".

 

[Hades]

His ally Trump returning to office to betray Europe for him was about the biggest victory Putin could have gotten. But the funny thing is that this was immediately followed by a complete horror month for Russia. The ruble has declined in value, record casualties in Ukraine, the crony he tried putting into office in Romania having his victory annulled by the courts, and his cronies in Georgia facing mass protests. And now he lost Syria.

 

[Gergar12]

I am shocked. The stubborn Assad just fell... just like that... After a decade-long civil war.

 

[XsjadoBlayde]

Any land grab for Israel is a land grab for America. Their goals are still neatly aligned.

 

[Silvanus]

The Turkey-aligned rebels have also seized chunk of land (at Manbij) from the US-aligned Kurdish YPG.

And Israel has launched airstrikes on Damascus, targeting: a military intelligence site, a research site (that it claims has been used to develop missiles for Iran), and a customs site.

 

[TheMysteriousGX]

What, did they see Arabs dying and feel left out?

 

[Agema]

TL: DR
Netanyahu has ordered the IDF to take Syrian land as a "buffer zone".

A few more secured buffer zones and maybe Israel will decide it owns Damascus.

 

[dreng3]

A few more secured buffer zones and maybe Israel will decide it owns Damascus.

Israel needs that space/room so that it/they may live.

 

[Hades]

Israel needs that space/room so that it/they may live.

I wonder if there's a German word for that.

 

[Gergar12]

Assad is so moral. No really.

/S

 

[Trunkage]

I think he feels he can afford to lose in Syria more than he can in Ukraine. But yeah, don't start a war until you've finished your current one. See also going for Iraq while Afghanistan was going on, or even going for the Allies while you're bogged down in China.

This is just a reminder to everyone that Vlad took over seven countries in Africa since Trump last was in office. Both Trump and Biden gradually let him take control and the French were pariahs due to their previous colonial behaviour. Their government didn't start out with anti-homosexual and misogynist slogans, they said them to appease Putin

Putin is still way ahead on the world stage. We will see what happens in Georgia. Ukraine will be forced into folding. He got what he wanted

 

[Seanchaidh]

to be clear, you're all celebrating the ascension of this guy?