Funny events in anti-woke world

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Silvanus

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There wasn't a cluster. The fact that the military saw it is even more noteworthy because you have healthy people in the military vs the general population (where all the cases may be associated with a specific pre-existing condition).
The military noticed (IIRC) 14 cases, and flagged it. That's a cluster.

You said 2% of adolescents/kids got heart arrhythmia from covid, which isn't true.
No, not of the whole population. Context makes it abundantly clear we're talking about the hospitalised group-- that's what the study i posted is about, and I clarified it multiple times afterwards.

And yet, there's absolutely no way to massage the figures that results in the vaccine being more dangerous than the disease. For any group. First time or otherwise.

Ah. Then no.
 
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Phoenixmgs

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The military noticed (IIRC) 14 cases, and flagged it. That's a cluster.



No, not of the whole population. Context makes it abundantly clear we're talking about the hospitalised group-- that's what the study i posted is about, and I clarified it multiple times afterwards.

And yet, there's absolutely no way to massage the figures that results in the vaccine being more dangerous than the disease. For any group. First time or otherwise.



Ah. Then no.
That's not a cluster. I guess a cluster of women got blood clots with the J&J vaccine, nothing to see here...

The hospitalized group is very small... 1st infection matters very much. If you had a covid infection, you gain no benefit from the vaccine, why take something the yields no benefit and only can cause harm?

He was... The science agrees with him.
 

BrawlMan

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There's dumb ass biatch on YouTube going on about how Wolfestein games or recent AAA games are "anti-white". Mother-fucker, is it 2017 again, and who the fuck are you trying to fool? I am not linking the biatch-ass fuck head's video either. They ain't getting shit.
 

Silvanus

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That's not a cluster.

The hospitalized group is very small...
Their group was about 1,300, IIRC. That's sufficient for this kind of study.

1st infection matters very much. If you had a covid infection, you gain no benefit from the vaccine, why take something the yields no benefit and only can cause harm?
Nope. The impact of later infections is much reduced, though this depends on strain and timescale. Yet even so, the risks massively outweigh the absolutely negligible risk of myocarditis from the vaccine.

You talk of a 0.0005% risk as if is an overriding concern, yet you talk of greater risks as if they simply don't matter.

EDIT: Also found this snippet in the article to which Vinay Prasad linked:

"While myocarditis can be life-threatening, most vaccine-associated myocarditis events have been mild and self-limiting. The risk observed here is small and limited to the 7 day period following vaccination, whereas the lifetime risk of morbidity and mortality following SARS-CoV-2 infection is substantial. Indeed, myocardial injury is very common in persons admitted to hospital with SARS-CoV-2 infection".

So the myocarditis events from the virus are even substantially more severe than those from the vaccine, even before we factor in the risks of every other damn complication with covid!
 
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Phoenixmgs

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Their group was about 1,300, IIRC. That's sufficient for this kind of study.



Nope. The impact of later infections is much reduced, though this depends on strain and timescale. Yet even so, the risks massively outweigh the absolutely negligible risk of myocarditis from the vaccine.

You talk of a 0.0005% risk as if is an overriding concern, yet you talk of greater risks as if they simply don't matter.

EDIT: Also found this snippet in the article to which Vinay Prasad linked:

"While myocarditis can be life-threatening, most vaccine-associated myocarditis events have been mild and self-limiting. The risk observed here is small and limited to the 7 day period following vaccination, whereas the lifetime risk of morbidity and mortality following SARS-CoV-2 infection is substantial. Indeed, myocardial injury is very common in persons admitted to hospital with SARS-CoV-2 infection".

So the myocarditis events from the virus are even substantially more severe than those from the vaccine, even before we factor in the risks of every other damn complication with covid!
Not a cluster...
"As used in these guidelines, the term "cluster" is an unusual aggregation, real or perceived, of health events that are grouped together in time and space and that are reported to a health agency."

I meant the people of the population of those, IIRC, under 18 that will be hospitalized for covid is very small, not that the study group itself was very small.

I wasn't trying to say that once you get covid or the vaccine that you become completely impenetrable to covid. Yes, you can get covid again (obviously, nothing stops you from getting covid X amount of times) and you can get severe covid from a 2nd or 3rd or 4th infection (though very rare). However, getting vaccinated after you had covid doesn't reduce that chance of getting severe covid any more in the future, thus there's no benefit you are getting from the vaccine in that case. Not even counting a severe issue like myocarditis, by getting the vaccine (when you don't need it), you're probably missing a day or two (from school or work or perhaps a weekend if you get it on a Friday). There are harms from the vaccine that aren't only myocarditis.

Again, WHO is getting those severe issues? You're going back to talking about the entire population when I'm not. The older you get, those severe issues exponentially rise and the younger you are, those same issues are exponentially lower. And the myocarditis issue from the vaccine exponentially rises for young men who have the lowest chances of getting myocarditis from the infection.
 

Silvanus

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Not a cluster...
"As used in these guidelines, the term "cluster" is an unusual aggregation, real or perceived, of health events that are grouped together in time and space and that are reported to a health agency."
This is a definition that directly covers the military spotting 14 cases close together and flagging it.

I meant the people of the population of those, IIRC, under 18 that will be hospitalized for covid is very small, not that the study group itself was very small.
Right. So, I've seen numbers ranging from 1-2% for the hospitalisation of kids. Let's take the lower estimate.

2% of 1% comes to 0.02%. That's still 40 times higher than 0.0005%.

I wasn't trying to say that once you get covid or the vaccine that you become completely impenetrable to covid. Yes, you can get covid again (obviously, nothing stops you from getting covid X amount of times) and you can get severe covid from a 2nd or 3rd or 4th infection (though very rare). However, getting vaccinated after you had covid doesn't reduce that chance of getting severe covid any more in the future, thus there's no benefit you are getting from the vaccine in that case. Not even counting a severe issue like myocarditis, by getting the vaccine (when you don't need it), you're probably missing a day or two (from school or work or perhaps a weekend if you get it on a Friday). There are harms from the vaccine that aren't only myocarditis.
We're not discussing missing a day or two of school or work. Even mild symptoms of the virus itself are more likely to send you home.

Vaccines cover different strains and timeframes. Get covid, wait a while, your immunity will wane. Vaccination in any circumstance will be safer.

Again, WHO is getting those severe issues? You're going back to talking about the entire population when I'm not.
I'm pointing out that myocarditis from the vaccine tends to be much milder, self-limiting, and brief. That conclusion is not limited to certain subgroups-- the paper states it as a general. If you think what they say doesn't hold true for a specific subgroup, then let's see your counter research.
 

Phoenixmgs

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This is a definition that directly covers the military spotting 14 cases close together and flagging it.



Right. So, I've seen numbers ranging from 1-2% for the hospitalisation of kids. Let's take the lower estimate.

2% of 1% comes to 0.02%. That's still 40 times higher than 0.0005%.



We're not discussing missing a day or two of school or work. Even mild symptoms of the virus itself are more likely to send you home.

Vaccines cover different strains and timeframes. Get covid, wait a while, your immunity will wane. Vaccination in any circumstance will be safer.



I'm pointing out that myocarditis from the vaccine tends to be much milder, self-limiting, and brief. That conclusion is not limited to certain subgroups-- the paper states it as a general. If you think what they say doesn't hold true for a specific subgroup, then let's see your counter research.
Time "and space". Using your version of the word that you only use since it conforms to your argument, the women getting blood clots from the J&J vaccine are a cluster too, nothing to see here just a cluster.

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There were 234,000 <18 hospitalized for covid

There are 74 million <18 in the US, AI Overview

Even if you do 1.8% of the entire group of hospitalized children (which isn't your study, it's a group of SEVERE covid so even smaller), that's 4.212 (0.018 x 234,000) kids that got arrhythmia from covid.

Then 4,212 / 74 million x 100 = 0.0057%

Then 0.0057% / 0.0005% = 11.4 times higher

How are you getting 40 times higher? And mind you that 11 times higher isn't even the right number because it's based off ALL hospitalizations and not just those with severe covid so that 11.4 times higher is coming down once you get the group of the hospitalized kids that had severe covid only and then applying the 1.8%.

---

Missing days is part of the cost/benefit analysis that you have to do. Immunity from infection is stronger (slightly) than vaccination immunity, it's in the CDC data. Protection wanes in the sense that you can get covid again but you will probably never get severe covid (especially without some other condition that weakens your immune system). Natural immunity or vaccination immunity lasts basically the same amount, like a month. There's no point in getting a booster of the vaccine just to miss a day or two with symptoms, then to catch covid in 2 months and have said symptoms again, you didn't need to have it twice essentially. And, it's providing no benefit in you reducing your chances of severe covid (not counting those vulnerable obviously).

You've also had kids and young men miss months from being able to play sports, some have gotten heart attacks from vaccine induced myocarditis. A large group of them are getting no benefit from it as well. The group that gets literally no benefit has no reason to possibly get harmed (majorly or even minorly) just because someone wants to feel safer knowing everyone is vaccinated.
 

Silvanus

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Time "and space". Using your version of the word that you only use since it conforms to your argument, the women getting blood clots from the J&J vaccine are a cluster too, nothing to see here just a cluster.
They could indeed be a cluster too. You seem to just not grasp what a cluster is; i don't know why you're equating it with "nothing to see here". A cluster might be worth investigation, it might not, depending on the specifics.

There were 234,000 <18 hospitalized for covid

There are 74 million <18 in the US, AI Overview

Even if you do 1.8% of the entire group of hospitalized children (which isn't your study, it's a group of SEVERE covid so even smaller), that's 4.212 (0.018 x 234,000) kids that got arrhythmia from covid.

Then 4,212 / 74 million x 100 = 0.0057%

Then 0.0057% / 0.0005% = 11.4 times higher

How are you getting 40 times higher? And mind you that 11 times higher isn't even the right number because it's based off ALL hospitalizations and not just those with severe covid so that 11.4 times higher is coming down once you get the group of the hospitalized kids that had severe covid only and then applying the 1.8%.
40% higher is based on 2% of 1%, which is the lower estimate i found in studies for the rate of hospitalisations among covid cases for that age group. Ironically here you're doing exactly what you accused me of: substituting your opponent's group for the entire population.

And yet! Even when we use your absurd numbers, accepting every flimsy assumption and manipulation you use, the risk of myocarditis from the vaccine is still over 10 times less! There's nothing you can do to these numbers, dude, the risk you're whining about is just that negligible.

You've also had kids and young men miss months from being able to play sports
Blah. I don't have any interest in engaging with this shifted topic.
 

Phoenixmgs

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They could indeed be a cluster too. You seem to just not grasp what a cluster is; i don't know why you're equating it with "nothing to see here". A cluster might be worth investigation, it might not, depending on the specifics.



40% higher is based on 2% of 1%, which is the lower estimate i found in studies for the rate of hospitalisations among covid cases for that age group. Ironically here you're doing exactly what you accused me of: substituting your opponent's group for the entire population.

And yet! Even when we use your absurd numbers, accepting every flimsy assumption and manipulation you use, the risk of myocarditis from the vaccine is still over 10 times less! There's nothing you can do to these numbers, dude, the risk you're whining about is just that negligible.



Blah. I don't have any interest in engaging with this shifted topic.
A cluster means the cases are isolated to a time and space, meaning that there was something else happening most likely since it's confined. If 14 people from a single say county are the only ones to have gotten a side effect from the vaccine, it's probably not the vaccine then (maybe a bad batch, but not the overall vaccine). The 14 people are across the entire military, not like a single base or something like that. That's not a cluster.

The percentage of people getting myocarditis is the entire population of young men or just young people IIRC, I forget where you pulled it from. It better be from one of those groups because the entire population stat of that would be very misleading if you're using that. I made your 2% stat (1.8% technically) for arrhythmia to apply to at least the people under 18 group so it's actually comparable to the myocarditis stat in some manner because you're not doing that and just making BS claims of 40 TIMES HIGHER (which is not true in any universe). You keep comparing apples and oranges.

So you are for forcing people to get something that does have some harms associated that get no benefits from said thing?
 

Agema

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I'm pointing out that myocarditis from the vaccine tends to be much milder, self-limiting, and brief. That conclusion is not limited to certain subgroups-- the paper states it as a general. If you think what they say doesn't hold true for a specific subgroup, then let's see your counter research.
Also interesting, but as far as anyone could measure Covid-19 vaccination-induced myocarditis rates seemed be decreasing, so the chances now are even lower now than the very low levels of 2021.

Why is not clear - possibly that people are more likely to have been exposed to Covid-19 infection or had prior vaccination, which reduces the severity of response.
 
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Silvanus

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A cluster means the cases are isolated to a time and space, meaning that there was something else happening most likely since it's confined. If 14 people from a single say county are the only ones to have gotten a side effect from the vaccine, it's probably not the vaccine then (maybe a bad batch, but not the overall vaccine). The 14 people are across the entire military, not like a single base or something like that. That's not a cluster.
A cluster can also be restricted to a certain shared environment. In that sense the military qualifies. Though if you want to argue there was no shared environment or anything, that would actually help my case-- since 14 cases across the entire military would be completely statistically irrelevant, well within expectations.

The percentage of people getting myocarditis is the entire population of young men or just young people IIRC, I forget where you pulled it from. It better be from one of those groups because the entire population stat of that would be very misleading if you're using that. I made your 2% stat (1.8% technically) for arrhythmia to apply to at least the people under 18 group so it's actually comparable to the myocarditis stat in some manner because you're not doing that and just making BS claims of 40 TIMES HIGHER (which is not true in any universe). You keep comparing apples and oranges.
Ok, this paragraph is very confused and messy, so let me re-explain this.

I was never talking about the entire population, whether they had covid or not. We have been comparing on the one hand, recipients of a specific vaccine dose who are of a certain age range; and on the other hand, covid cases within a comparable age range. This is because we're comparing the risks posed by covid and by the vaccine. OK?

Approximately 1% of covid cases for that younger age range resulted in hospitalisation. Approximately 2% of hospitalised children suffered the arrhythmia, in another study. So using the numbers we have, we get to (very roughly) 0.02% of covid cases in that age range leading to arrhythmia.

0.02 is 40x 0.0005.

So you are for forcing people to get something that does have some harms associated that get no benefits from said thing?
Nope, I'm not forcing anyone to do anything, I've not been advocating for policy.

I am telling you the fact that in every possible demographic, including kids, including young men, the risks associated with the vaccine are vastly outweighed by the risks of the virus.
 

BrawlMan

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I don't watch South Park anymore, but this doesn't surprise me in the slightest. Matt and Trey have made fun of Trump at least three other times. Why the fool cares now is beyond me, but he'll forget within a few weeks, and be mad about something else.

Is the fact that Hulk Hogan finally died a funny event in anti woke world?
I stopped caring for Hulk Hogan decades ago (circa 2006-2007), but i'm not laughing nor sad.
 
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Phoenixmgs

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A cluster can also be restricted to a certain shared environment. In that sense the military qualifies. Though if you want to argue there was no shared environment or anything, that would actually help my case-- since 14 cases across the entire military would be completely statistically irrelevant, well within expectations.



Ok, this paragraph is very confused and messy, so let me re-explain this.

I was never talking about the entire population, whether they had covid or not. We have been comparing on the one hand, recipients of a specific vaccine dose who are of a certain age range; and on the other hand, covid cases within a comparable age range. This is because we're comparing the risks posed by covid and by the vaccine. OK?

Approximately 1% of covid cases for that younger age range resulted in hospitalisation. Approximately 2% of hospitalised children suffered the arrhythmia, in another study. So using the numbers we have, we get to (very roughly) 0.02% of covid cases in that age range leading to arrhythmia.

0.02 is 40x 0.0005.



Nope, I'm not forcing anyone to do anything, I've not been advocating for policy.

I am telling you the fact that in every possible demographic, including kids, including young men, the risks associated with the vaccine are vastly outweighed by the risks of the virus.
Why would people be normally getting myocarditis after a vaccine? How is that normal/expected? Also, it's not like the US military was the only place that noticed it.

Your numbers are all wrong. There were 234,000 hospitalizations for people under 18 (from Fall 2020 to Spring 2024), which might not be DUE to covid, but I'll ignore that. There are 74 million people under the age of 18 in the US. Thus, that is 0.3% in that group hospitalized for covid, not 1%. In your study, it's not 2% of hospitalized children, it's 2% of children that got severe covid got arrhythmia. I did the math step-by-step a couple posts back.

It's not vastly outweighed because you keep doing the math wrong.